Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[junior doctor] 01/2/2016 16:44

"tomorrow"??

You some sort of ramper??



srpactive 28 Jan'16 - 15:12 - 8383 of 8386 0 0

A little retrace which is always good for the chart, 12p
tomorrow.

dyor

[donald trumpton] 28/1/2016 17:56

What a tart!

srpactive 28 Jan'16 - 15:12 - 8383 of 8384 0 0

A little retrace which is always good for the chart, 12p
tomorrow.





Will do pixi!

[pixi] 28/1/2016 15:40

trumpers, have a look at horneblower on AUE, mate.

[srpactive] 28/1/2016 15:12

A little retrace which is always good for the chart, 12p
tomorrow.

dyor

[donald trumpton] 28/1/2016 11:39

I have orders in for 10p, and sub.

[srpactive] 28/1/2016 11:24

I have bought a few more.

[boycie1] 27/1/2016 13:21

pixi i think you may have hit that sell trigger too soon!

[srpactive] 27/1/2016 12:50

It has formed a new short term high, going to challenge 1149,
then we shall see, I expect the opposite to you.

dyor

[pixi] 27/1/2016 12:28

It is unlikely that gold will stay at these levels (1120). I expect a significant retrace shortly back to the previous low, around 1050.

[srpactive] 26/1/2016 20:05

Gold surging, miners will follow, one other point we could be missing,
Randgold need to acquire to keep growing, PAF could be a nice little
bolt on.

dyor

[aishah] 26/1/2016 16:11

Rise now on sustained volume - well above ADV.

[dangersimpson2] 26/1/2016 15:30

Had a quick look what the forward earning potential could be here.

Since the 2015 results the gold price in Rand has gone up significantly to c.ZAR600k/Kg but part of that is due to rand weakness that will reduce profits when translated to GBP.

There's been a wage settlement of 8-9%, fuel is much cheaper in $ but offset by rand weakness, capital costs may have gone up in rand due to SA inflation so I think it's fair to take +10% as a conservative estimate of the increase in all in sustaining costs.

Kg produced in 2015 is taken from total revenue divided by avergae gold price per Kg. 2015 was impacted by low grades at Evander so with those improving I've assumed that they will generate 5% production growth overall. In addition the extra production may help lower the all in sustaining costs since Evander's reduced production was due to grade not ore processed and mining costs tend to be determined by volume. I've not modelled this.


2015 2016E Gold price ZAR/Kg 446274 600000All in sustaining costs ZAR/Kg 402221 442443 +10%Kg produced 5690 5975 +5%PBT (ZARm) 251 941 FX rate (ZAR/GBP) 18 23.56 PBT (£m) 13.93 39.96 PAT (£m) 10.31 29.57 26% Taxshares in issue (m) 1831 1831 EPS (p) 0.6 1.6



Of course gold hasn't been this high in Rand during H1 2016 which is why they the last trading statement said only 'at least 0.51p EPS'. I expect them to beat that slightly in the H1 and assuming gold remains at current levels generate 0.8p+ for H2. However at current gold/FX prices the company should be able to conservatively deliver at least 1.6p EPS going forward.

Also the reported 2015 EPS is higher than the value I've calculated here since I've used the all in sustaining costs which was higher than cash costs + depreciation + royalty + finance costs in 2015. If this remains the case we would see the same uplift in reported EPS going forward.

Although a P/E is not a great tool for a limited life asset, with a maximum fwd P/E of 6.5x this still looks cheap compared to larger listed gold producers even after the recent rise.

[mister md] 26/1/2016 15:02

well done srpactive - still not regretting my 7.5p entry point on this one ;)

[srpactive] 26/1/2016 15:00

Bid rising get ready for 12p.

[srpactive] 26/1/2016 12:07

I think if gold can close above $1110, PAF will surge
very quickly higher, I am buying more here.

Also if we close above $1149, gold will return to bull market.

dyor

regards

active

[srpactive] 26/1/2016 08:19

Yes and gold breaking out also, due to moving through $1110.

dyor

regards

active

[edjge2] 25/1/2016 18:38

2 yr chart looks like double bottom perhaps

[srpactive] 25/1/2016 15:47

Get ready for 12p.

[srpactive] 22/1/2016 11:01

MM's playing with the bid and offer I see.

[srpactive] 21/1/2016 21:33

Yes agree, due to closing above 9.25p, we have formed a
double bottom, which is very positive. A target price
of 12p cannot be ruled out.

dyor

[mister md] 21/1/2016 15:06

looking good today

[srpactive] 20/1/2016 19:32

Gold is looking very good, a close above 1110,
and we could be in business here.
If it does I will be buying more here in the morning.

dyor

[srpactive] 15/1/2016 16:39

Higher 2mth highs and higher lows, fingers crossed
for a challenge of 9.25p very soon.

dyor

regards

active