P2p Global Investments Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 10/2/2016 12:06

Retired Nanny knows best;

[anley] 01/2/2016 09:56

This concept has not caught the market's eye because it looks complicated and its history is short.
However, and if the IT is as good as the directors think then in the next 18 months or so then the shares could be very much higher.

[davebowler] 01/2/2016 09:48

Liberum;
P2P Global Investments (BUY)
6.9% 2015 NAV total return

Event
P2PGI's NAV grew by 0.20% and 0.29% respectively for the ordinary and C shares in December 2015. We calculate a NAV total return of 6.9% in 2015 for the ordinary shares. The dividend for the quarter to December 2015 for the ordinary and C shares is 13.7p and 9.5p respectively.

NAV performance in December for the ordinary shares was impacted by a number of factors including mark-to-model adjustments in the US assets due to Lending Club’s increase of interest rates and a small rise in impairments which are within the expected range. In addition, a number of one-off factors had an impact on NAV including a one time adjustment for platform servicing fees and a non-cash markdown on an equity position (which we believe relates to a listed investment). These were partially offset by the sale of previously charged-off loans.

In terms of deployment, gearing on the ordinary share class is now 69% and 67% of the C share proceeds had been invested by the end of December (five months after launch). The target gearing ratio for the ordinary shares is between 90% and 110%.

During Q4, P2PGI made four equity investments bringing the total number of equity investments to 16.

Liberum view
NAV performance in the month for the ordinary shares was lower than the expected run-rate although the biggest reason for this is the mark-to-model adjustment of the US assets held within the Eaglewood Income Fund. The C shares were not impacted by this as it does not invest through the Eaglewood Income Fund. This valuation takes into account a number of factors including Lending Club interest rates. These assets are revalued as it is an open-ended fund and the fair value is used to price the units in the fund. All of the other loans held within P2PGI's portfolio are held at cost. The markdown should unwind over the term of each loan as they are held to maturity.

It has not been disclosed which equity position has been marked down. We believe it may relate to a small holding in an Australian listed platform (disclosed in the July prospectus) which fell 16% in December as the majority of equity investments are held at cost unless there is a material transaction which justifies a movement. We note that the share price of this platform has risen 24% in 2016 to-date and should have a small positive (non-cash) impact on January's NAV performance.

P2P is now trading on a 7.4% discount to NAV (sector average 7.6% discount) and we believe this represents an attractive opportunity given the portfolio is fully invested and the shares should deliver a c.7% dividend yield over the next year which includes no upside from equity investments

[jaws6] 29/1/2016 13:40

dave
Thanks

[davebowler] 29/1/2016 13:35

Portfolio Commentary
During Q4 2015, the Company delivered the NAV growth of 1.28% for the Ordinary Share class and 0.85% for the C Share Class, respectively.
The return for the year is in line with the Company’s target return and the Investment Manager is confident that there is room for further
improvement as the gearing ratio reaches the target level and leverage utilisation is optimised. The following factors, among other things, have
contributed to the returns during the month of December: fair value adjustments in the US assets due to Lending Club’s increase of interest
rates, a moderate rise in impairments (which remain well within expectations), a one time adjustment for Platform servicing fees, successful
sale of charged-off loans and a non-cash markdown on an equity position.
During 2015, the Company successfully completed two C Share capital raises, subsequently merging the first of those in July 2015 post full
deployment being reached and also completed a Tap issue of Ordinary Shares in June. The average NAV of the Ordinary Share class during the
year was £338m with £20.69m of total dividends declared for the year. The Company delivered a 6.12% in dividends on the average NAV for
the year.
Deployment & Capital Structure
At the end of Q4 2015, the Company’s Ordinary share class had a leverage ratio of 69% whilst the C Share class was still deploying the equity
capital raised in July 2015. The Company anticipates deploying debt in Q1 2016, primarily from the corporate debt facility that it announced on
17 December 2015. Furthermore, the Company continues to pursue arrangements with debt providers in order to reduce the cost and increase
the flexibility of its debt funding. The Investment Manager currently has a target gearing ratio between 90% and 110% (debt to equity) which it
expects to achieve over the course of Q1 and Q2 2016.
With increasing availability of loans from Platforms the Company has existing relationships with, and the addition of new Platforms, the
Company’s monthly deployment has been increasing month on month allowing the C Share class to achieve 66.63% deployment at the end of
2015, five months after its launch.
Equity
During Q4 2015, the Company made four equity investments (three of which were in new Platforms) bringing the total number of investments
in Platforms to 16. It is the Investment Manager’s intention to continue to pursue strategic investments in the equity of platforms and to continue
to earn warrants in the equity of platforms in exchange for deployment of debt capital through such Platforms.
Portfolio Composition
The Company’s portfolio evolved between the end of Q3 and the end of Q4 2015 due to a small reduction in exposure to US consumer assets.
At the same time, the Company increased its exposure to secured property loans. These changes reflect the Investment Manager’s intention to
increase geographical and asset class diversification. The change between each geographic and asset class exposure are shown in the table
below.

[davebowler] 18/12/2015 10:34

Liberum;
New corporate debt facility

Event
P2PGI has agreed a new £150m secured loan facility with a consortium of institutional lenders. The facility has a term of three years and the funds will be deployed in line with the company's existing investment policy.

Liberum view
The new debt facility is the first that P2PGI has agreed at the corporate level. All previous debt facilities have been secured on loan portfolios relating to specific platforms. The new facility is equivalent to 31% of the NAV of the ordinary shares or 17% of the combined NAV of the ordinary shares and C shares. The new facility should help to further diversify the company's range of lenders.

P2PGI is now trading in line with NAV (sector average 1.2% discount) and we believe this represents an attractive opportunity given the portfolio is fully invested and the shares should deliver a c.7% dividend yield over the next year which includes no upside from equity investments.

[anley2] 02/12/2015 10:54

Woodford has 10%...........

[davebowler] 27/11/2015 10:19

Liberum;
P2PGI's NAV return in October was 0.56% for the ordinary shares which
represents an uplift from recent months (average of 0.46% in August and
September). YTD NAV total return is now 6.2% and should reach 7%+ for
2015 (in line with our forecast of 7.2%). The sector's share rating has
weakened in recent months and P2PGI now trades on a 1.3% discount to
NAV (ex-dividend). We believe this is attractive given the potential for a 7%
dividend yield over the next four quarters which doesn't include any
potential upside from equity investments in high-growth platforms.
Uptick in monthly returns
P2PGI's portfolio delivered NAV growth of 0.56% and 0.28% respectively for the ordinary shares and
C shares in October. The NAV return for the ordinary shares is an improvement on recent months
(0.49% in August & 0.43% in September) and is closer to the c.7% annualised earnings run-rate we
would expect at this stage.
YTD NAV total return for the ordinary shares is now 6.2% (of which c.0.5% was due to July's accretive
tap issue). The 2015 NAV total return should reach c.7.4% assuming the current run-rate is
maintained which is marginally ahead of our expectations of 7.2% for the year.
Increased portfolio disclosure
P2PGI has indicated it expects impairments to range between 2-4% on an annualised basis
depending on the type of loan. Encouragingly, impairments to date remain within that trajectory.
For the first time, P2PGI has confirmed the five largest platforms by the total amount invested in loans
to date. These are Lending Club (US Consumer), Zopa (UK Consumer), Prosper (US Consumer),
Upstart (US Consumer) and Funding Circle (UK SME). Key areas of focus for P2PGI in addition to the
core US and UK consumer markets include secured loans, invoice financing and expansion to other
European markets. The three largest equity investments to date are in Prosper, Zopa and
RateSetter.
Minimal impact from Madden vs. Midland case
P2PGI has also confirmed it has minimal exposure to loans which could potentially be affected by
the Madden vs. Midland case. The outstanding balance of loans exposed to the Madden case is less
than 2% of NAV and P2PGI has stopped buying affected loans in New York, Connecticut and
Vermont.
By way of background, the Madden case arose after Midland Funding LLC (a debt purchaser)
acquired the credit card account of Saliha Madden from Bank of America after she had failed to repay
her debt. After being told by Midland that interest was accruing at a rate of 27% p.a. on the account,
Madden filed a class action lawsuit against Midland arguing that Midland had violated state and
federal laws by charging interest rates in excess of New York's usury laws (which cap how high
interest rates can go).

The District Court sided with Madden in May. The defendants in the Madden Case recently filed a
petition in the Supreme Court for the court to consider whether to review the case. The case is
relevant for the non-bank lending industry because it means that a non-bank entity is not entitled to
protection from usury claims is certain US states (it is binding only in New York, Connecticut and
Vermont).
Discount represents opportunity
P2PGI is now trading on a 1.3% discount to NAV as the sector has come under pressure over the
past month (weighted average 1.7% discount to NAV for the sector). We believe this represents an
attractive opportunity to acquire the shares at a discount to NAV given the portfolio is fully invested
and the shares should deliver a c.7% dividend yield over the next year which includes no upside from
equity investments

[anley2] 09/11/2015 13:51

Not sure what is going on with the share price as there has been a big seller. Nevertheless good dividend to be reinvested back in to shares.

[davebowler] 05/11/2015 13:08

VSL looks cheap too.... 3% discount to NAV

[anley2] 03/11/2015 17:34

Thanks for that but she has got nothing new to tell us...........its another case of poor research on behalf of the City scribblers.

They really should look at how P2P for example uses research to find out all about prospective borrowers and the low cost operations need to do their business........no expensive offices and branches and small management costs when you think what a high street bank has.

Once the retail investor picks up and thinks this all through then there will be a lot more interest in P2P.

We shall wait and see......

[davebowler] 03/11/2015 16:30

Third article in is on P2P by Monica Tepes

[anley2] 02/11/2015 10:59

A very poor article by John Ficenec in todays Telegraph as to why we should be all wary of "click and collect interest".

What Ficenec forgot to mention was the amount of data P2P, for example, can assess is incredible. The use of credit agencies and other means enables P2P to see hundreds of data points on each effective borrower.

I could go on and give examples but the banks are worried as they ditch the small businesses and cancel their O/D's.

I also use RateSetter and have done so for over a year and never once have I had to contact them over how they operate or how my account is run. Its thses sorts of business that are attracting the best IT talent - better conditions and prospects than working with the big banks whoes's IT systems are old and keep breaking down.

In 7-10 years my belief is that Peer to Peer lending will become the accepted way for people and businesses to borrow money............so banks watch out and Mr Ficenec go back and take another look at the new industry!!

[davebowler] 27/10/2015 09:43

Liberum;

P2P Global Investments (BUY, TP 1300p)
0.43% NAV return in September

Event
P2PGI issued the monthly report for September yesterday with NAV growth of 0.43% and 0.09% respectively for the ordinary shares and C shares. We calculate a YTD NAV total return of 5.6% for the ordinary shares inclusive of the impact of June's accretive tap issue and assuming dividends are not reinvested (we had previously forecast 7.2% for the full year).

The monthly NAV return for the ordinary shares appears to have been reduced sllightly by delinquencies which rise as the loan portfolio seasons and tend to stabilise towards maturity.

20% of the net C share proceeds have been deployed in the two months since the raise. We would expect C share deployment to pick up over the coming months. The allocation of C share capital is broadly similar to the ordinary shares with 69% of the deployed C share capital invested in US loans (64% in US consumer and 5% in US SME).


In terms of equity investments, P2PGI invested in the equity of a consumer lending platform based in New Zealand. Equity investments now account for 3.5% of the ordinary share portfolio.

Liberum view
We would expect the dividend for the four months to 30 September 2015 to be c.18.5p per share based on the cum-income NAV announced yesterday. This would bring dividends to 45.5p for the nine months to the end of September. Monthly returns should increase in the final quarter as leverage benefits come through and the company is therefore on track to meet its 6-8% dividend target.

P2PGI's NAV will be tend to be slightly more volatile on a monthly basis than some peers who operate in this space as P2P does not take a loss provision which would effectively smooth out NAV returns. There will also be a small amount of cash drag as the fund levers up as proceeds drawn under new debt facilities are put to work.

Both the ordinary and C shares have come off in recent weeks and now trade on discounts to NAV of 3.7%% and 2.5% respectively which appears attractive particularly given the immediate yield benefits of the ordinary shares (we expect a dividend yield of c.7.5% for the ordinary shares from the next four quarterly payments).

Specialist Finance

[anley2] 24/10/2015 10:43

But at £10 it is now at a discount to NAV...............

[anley2] 08/10/2015 11:26

If the price gets close to NAV = no big premium then buy and reinvest the dividends for compound growth..........a no brainer for todays markets.

[jaws6] 28/9/2015 15:29

NAV RNS looks ok

[wirralowl] 22/9/2015 17:03

thanks Jaws, looks very interesting, will hopefully get a chance to read it tonight.

[jaws6] 22/9/2015 15:49

good read
hxxp://view.ceros.com/citywire/edition-15-income-investor/p/4

[jaws6] 15/9/2015 15:26

any one seen new broker note today ?

[jaws6] 04/9/2015 10:06

so more buying after 18 Sept ?
you heard anything good in GLIF fund ?
Thanks.

[davebowler] 04/9/2015 09:58

P2P Global Investments (BUY)
Inclusion to FTSE 250 Index

Event
FTSE announced yesterday the inclusion of P2P Global Investments to the FTSE 250 UK Index. The change will take place after the close of business on Friday, 18 September 2015 and will be effective on Monday, 21 September 2015.

Real Estate Debt

[jaws6] 20/8/2015 12:07

they after your bit of interest ?
Let's hope action next month

[shauney2] 20/8/2015 11:57

Got it today.They must still use carrier pidgeons.

They said they still need 3 business days after they receive their monies from P2P before it reaches my account.

But i can pay a builder or trades person from my own bank account(Barclays)the same day.Oh well.