Osb Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 22/1/2015 10:47

Let me copy a post I put on the PAG BB (apologies to those who follow both BBs!)

mikeja - PAG and OSB are VERY different animals. Whatever you have to say about the greed of the PAG management, you do have to acknowledge that they saw the business thru the GFC without external bail-out - and they know what they are doing, having the lowest level of borrower default in the industry.

Whereas OSB is the failed Kent Reliance Building Society now managed by fresh management that has precious little true knowledge of the market in which they operate - and certainly has not seen the business through any form of downturn. They rely on keeping their costs down by outsourcing several elements of their business to India and they have also taken operational decisions that MAY be good in the short-term but which will undoubtedly cost dearly in the long-term. Bear in mind they were set up by JC Flowers - and their operational imperative is a quick turn on their invested funds. Expect some chickens to come home to roost here!!!



Having said all that I agree that OSB is a very tempting short term prospect for the reasons that have been outlined - but be ready to get out quickly at the first sign of trouble!

[mikeja] 21/1/2015 06:45

Especially given PAG ROE is about one third of that for OSB

[adamb1978] 20/1/2015 07:32

PAG trades on 11.4x Sep-15, 10.2x Sep-16. OSB's multiple is crazy

Nice to have this quite time before the results in March to be able to top up
though

[nurdin] 19/1/2015 11:21

31p would be excellent and put the shares at current offer price on just 6.9x prospective.Hoping for a rerating once the 2014 results show the headlines

[mikeja] 19/1/2015 09:40

First estimates for 2016 eps around 31p.Despite its good move OSB should be trading around 300p to be on same valuation as its peers.Steady growth of 20% compound and a 2016 p/e of 7.5 makes no sense at all.

[nurdin] 12/1/2015 10:20

Thanks for that Adam.

[nurdin] 09/1/2015 12:23

Looks poised to breakout ...here is hoping ! :o)

[adamb1978] 06/1/2015 12:45

Hi Nurdin

I have since contacted the investor relations person at OSB and there's no plans to issue a trading statement before the prelims. Personally I'm not too bothered by that I want to buy more before the 2014 figures are announced - OSB trades on a PE of just over 8x for 2015 and, due to this recently listing and raising capital, I'm not convinced that investors are particulrly aware of the company or low rating.
Cheers

Adam

[nurdin] 06/1/2015 09:24

Hi Adam...odds are that they will issue a trading statement ahead of their results in March...

They did give a bullish interim management statement in November:



I am hoping for an ahead statement based on that...

[adamb1978] 02/1/2015 10:05

Does anyone on here know whether OSB have plans for a post year end trading statement ie in advance of the prelims in mid-March?
Thanks

[nurdin] 31/12/2014 09:44

Hi mike....yes 27p looks entirely feasible and would imply a 42% jump over the forecast eps for 2014 if achieved.Any indication in the forth coming results that the business is performing as forecast would trigger a major rerating imo.Chart looks nicely poised too as you say.

I have been adding by the way.

[mikeja] 31/12/2014 07:33

Chart looks good too.

[mikeja] 31/12/2014 07:31

Looking forward to a good year here ,nurdin,my guess,based on use of all the new money they raised is that eps for 2015 should be around 27p,on the same rating as Paragon that would make them worth 315p.Am thinking of shorting PAG as insurance.

[nurdin] 29/12/2014 12:18

Very quiet thread this.Mike,get your pencil sharpened ! :o)

[nurdin] 08/12/2014 12:04

Just noticed that a Director bought 20k shares at £2 last Friday..a decent amount !

[nurdin] 03/12/2014 10:45

Yes very surprised at the lack of interest here.Earning are expected to grow by 73% this year and by further 26% in 2015...and we are trading on a measly pe of around 10.Perhaps time to get more...

[mikeja] 03/12/2014 09:48

Filling my boots here,looking to trading update in Jan

[mikeja] 02/12/2014 10:48

Looking ridiculously undervalued against peers.PAG on a p/e of 13 and STB on 18,OSB should fall somewhere between,is actually selling at 9.5

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 21/11/2014 12:04

Uptrend looks just about intact, support @190 if it breaks.

Any idea of the div SCRUT?

Just passing by...

[scrutable] 12/11/2014 11:16

shanklin

I have not tried to borrow money from OSB. Its rates are too high for property secured borrowing, so must be slightly riskier than investing in a Building Society - but I don't think one can invest at all in a simple mortgage lender. They are each tied to a major clearing bank and I think that the parent banks are all dealing in derivatives at the multi billion level. That makes clearing banks much riskier than OSB, which is limited to retail lending. OPAY is also a financial share growing sharply but is tied to internet gambling payment systems, a no-go area for some investors with ethical concerns

Name a safer share with comparable growth figures and I will invest in it. I don't know of one. I AM invested in Globo which IS comparable, but it has attracted de-ramping shorters and for the moment IS riskier - at least until the next FY Trading Statement scatters the Bears in two months time.

[scrutable] 12/11/2014 10:54

sefton

Meldex was a clever deception - a Potemkin Village. The CEO lived near to me and came to my home twice. He was very plausible. Did you spot the problems before the CFO resigned? At that point I sold out. Did you? As he's a solicitor and is back in business I'd rather not comment further in Public. I can't do what the FCA is unwilling to do.

And apart from malice what's the relevance to OSB which has a clear Revenue, Profit, and EPS reflecting an unusually sharp growth record from the time of listing?

[nurdin] 06/11/2014 16:28

I think banks and building societies have learnt their lesson by now...and as a consequence have become increasingly risk averse.I doubt very much if OSB or other financial houses in similiar business for that matter, have a loose lending policy now.Caution seems to be the word .

[shanklin] 06/11/2014 16:14

OK. It would just be helpful to know what OSB's lending policies mean in practice. I don't really want to end up invested in a whole loads of mortgages that turn out to to be unsupported by the values of the underlying properties. That may be very far from the truth here??

[sefton1] 06/11/2014 16:07

Don't take scrutable seriously, he posted the same comments about Meldex before he lost his shirt.