Orosur Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bigtbigt] 12/5/2016 13:28

iantrader2 - inflation and interest rates have inter-dependencies, but it is much more complicated than you suggest because many other factors also influence both things independently.

E.g.,
- interest rates will cannot be allowed to rise by TPTB because given current debt levels this will kill the economy
- TPTB want high inflation alongside low rates, as (apart from massive defaults) that is the only way to deal with the massive debt levels
- inflation cannot easily be created right now because scared citizens/businesses are hoarding cash and not spending, fragile banks are not lending, any free cash is being used to pay interest and capital on loans rather than spending, and little new money is being created and fed into the real economy

This will resolve via a loss of faith in fiat - creating a massive run up in inflation, then later in gold, then later in interest rates (if they don't switch to SDRs or trigger WWIII first to avoid that). The question is whether this will happen in the next few years or the next few decades (like in Japan). My current take on everything suggests the latter. I certainly do not think this recent short-term recovery in PoG alone (from very low levels), with none of the other ingredients in place, is the start of the anticipated historic upheaval.

[bigtbigt] 12/5/2016 13:18

wallywoo: "The share price has more that doubled, you were negative then and now. At what point will that change 3x, 4x? - because this will get there soon enough."

I was very negative then, because PoG was low

I am less negative now, because PoG has risen, but still negative because the things really needed to make the investment case for OMI do not yet exist:
1. An big inflation problem, launching a long term massive run up in PoG
2. Substantial new proven gold reserves in OMI, that are high grade and accessible

And I might add 3. a CEO that is an experienced and trusted miner, not an accountant

[abc125] 12/5/2016 13:13

The Uruguayan peso has devalued 20% against the U.S. Dollar plus oil has halved in price so this will help lower operating costs.

[iantrader2] 12/5/2016 13:08

hazl

Thanks for your comments. I find the (common) assertion that gold does not like rising interest rates interesting.

Gold likes rising inflation. Rising interest rates are highly correlated with rising inflation, (a tool to take control of inflation). Gold therefore must like rising interest rates?

[wallywoo] 12/5/2016 12:46

Just a quick note on your comment for OMI having no money to develop assets:

1) They have over $30M (£21M) in net assets. Mkt cap is £10M.

2) At present POG price they will generating around £10M in cashflow per annum

3) They mentioned discussion with a partner to fund Columbia

The share price has more that doubled, you were negative then and now. At what point will that change 3x, 4x? - because this will get there soon enough.

[hazl] 12/5/2016 12:35

So not completely negative then!
Careful selection is wise and getting what you're comfortable with.
Its horses for courses.
The goldies were in the doldrums for a long time,now it seems it's time for them to shine again.

IMO

[bigtbigt] 12/5/2016 12:30

sharnish: "Just to remind any newcomers here. For years now BigT has been grumpy about OMI, maybe it's because he lost a packet when it was under different circumstances."

Ad hominem attacks only show your weakness of argument. I did not lose a packet on OMI. I did invest way back, but from contacts inside the company I started to realise what they were really about and so sold out well above current levels. I continue to watch and comment becuase I understand this beast so well, and in the right circumstances and climate I might go back in - but that is not where we are presently. One sunny day does not a summer make!!


Sharnish: "Lots and lots of the same targets that the company has been producing from for years with years more reserves left, plus the exploration that's replacing those reserves produced. They think that Don Tito alone may contain 500k Oz enough for 10 years and that's just one target. the targets for existing production and future exploration are numerous. If they get Colombia on the go its a different ball game, perhaps you'll see 70p again, especially if Au heads on for $1500/oz"

If "IFs" and "ANDs" were pots and pans, there'd be no work for tinkers! As I said, its pure and simple gambling. Plus they have no money to develop these assets, so massive dilution of investors would be reqired. Please see through their hype.


welshwiz: "you said in January that if the POG doesnt dramatically rise in the next 2-3 months then OMi would be dead. The Pog has risen dramatically and your stance is still the same?"

Not sure I said it would be "dead in a few months", more that PoG would have to rise soon for OMI not to die. Anyway, PoG has risen since then - buying OMI some time and creating this mistaken desire by many to believe in them again. So as discused, its all about PoG. My post abpve indicates my current view that PoG cannot keep rising from here over the next many months. If it holds at 1250 or so OMI can keep crawling along and the Directors can keep paying themselves handsomely. But I still think TPTB will push PoG lower. Only when global helicopter money is being dropped in desperation will people give loose faith in fiat, and the inflation moster will have the last laugh. Then is when you want to put all your cash in property, commodities, and miners. And FWIW I've recently started to dip into some of the bigger miners who pay a health divi.

[hazl] 12/5/2016 12:05

Plus we are not so dependent on the gold price going up every day now,though obviously that helps, because as long as its in a range some miners will profitable even at the lower end of that range.
Goldman Sachs recently said from an article on Kitko.....


'Goldman Sachs Lukewarm On Gold, Sees More Potential For Miners'


'With a combination of higher prices and flat costs, we now believe the miners are well positioned to generate superior market returns,” the bank said.'

IMO

[hazl] 12/5/2016 11:38

Ah ian,if you looked at the sha thread where I mostly write you would see that back then I felt pretty sure that gold would rise,despite the contrary articles at that time because the economies were not as strong as they were making out and so I didn't think that they would be able to raise interest rates over in the US.
That has so far proved to be the case but no one can be complacent and it is wise to keep an eye on the US announcements and data,in particular,each week for direction or confirmation.
Rising interest rates are not good for gold but if they cannot raise them yet then we can fairly certain gold will be sought after by investors.
Everything goes in cycles.

IMO

[iantrader2] 12/5/2016 11:13

Hazl

In Dec the gold price trend was down - how could you have spotted anything else?

[hazl] 12/5/2016 11:02

I think having spotted the gold trend before many people,back in December, I needed to realise some gains until the picture became clearer.
I probably just took profits in the wrong companies .
Now that the trend seems to be more established I am happier to consider which firms I want longer term.
Yes abc125 good strategy.

[abc125] 12/5/2016 10:42

For long term investing I always add to winning positions by looking at the weekly and monthly charts - if the trend is up keep buying.

Edgein, thanks for the info.

[hazl] 12/5/2016 10:24

Yes someuwin I admit I really regretted selling out before.

[someuwin] 12/5/2016 10:22

Moving up nicely.

[edgein] 11/5/2016 22:53

abc125,

Its on page 15 of the recent presentation, its resources or exploration upside mentioned after the trench that discovered 3.7g/t.

Good to see the Canadians hold today's gains at 23c.

Regards,
Ed.

[hazl] 11/5/2016 17:06

Just a reminder




'The broker's target goes to 26p from 22p and it repeats a 'buy'.

The miner, which operates Uruguay's only producing gold mine, succeeded in getting all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of production below US$1,000 an ounce in the quarter, and the plan is to keep it below that for the remainder of the financial year, which runs to end May.

It also bounced back into the black with a profit before tax of US$3.1mln in the three months to February 29, having made a loss of US$1.9mln in the corresponding period the year before.'

[abc125] 11/5/2016 16:57

Edgein, re the potential 500k oz reserve at Don Tito you mentioned, do you have a reference? (M&I or P&P)

I have the M&I at 752k oz and the P&P at 159k oz as per the FY results published 20th August 2015.

[abc125] 11/5/2016 16:12

I recall bigt bought around the 40-50p mark in 2010/11 and subsequently got disillusioned as the price crashed. Understandable. Small caps are illiquid and one can get stuck in a crashing share but you cannot let emotion influence investment decisions.

If one looks at the price chart and nothing else we see that Omi made a secular low on the 9th of December 2015 at 4.625p. Over the next 5 months the price appreciated by 180% punctuated by higher highs and higher lows.

That is bullish. No two ways about it.

[welshwiz] 11/5/2016 15:59

Big t
you said in January that if the POG doesnt dramatically rise in the next 2-3 months then OMi would be dead.
The Pog has risen dramatically and your stance is still the same?

[edgein] 11/5/2016 15:59

Sharnish,

Every company has hangers on that bought at the wrong time, it won't stop those buying at the right time making money, it never does. Those researching OMI will be able to read the latest quarterly and presentation and make their minds up where the company is heading now that gold is currently $1275+.

BigT

Lots and lots of the same targets that the company has been producing from for years with years more reserves left, plus the exploration that's replacing those reserves produced. They think that Don Tito alone may contain 500k Oz enough for 10 years and that's just one target. the targets for existing production and future exploration are numerous. If they get Colombia on the go its a different ball game, perhaps you'll see 70p again, especially if Au heads on for $1500/oz

Regards,
Ed.

[hazl] 11/5/2016 15:55

GOLD IS UP 10.30 points now.

[hazl] 11/5/2016 15:51

Yes there are disenchanted posters everywhere in the gold sector.......just met one in OVG!
You cannot blame any management for a sector downturn.
It happened recently in the Pharma sector you have to make hay when the sn is shining.
Now it's golds turn!
IMO

[sharnish] 11/5/2016 15:47

Just to remind any newcomers here. For years now BigT has been grumpy about OMI, maybe it's because he lost a packet when it was under different circumstances.

[bigtbigt] 11/5/2016 15:46

Hazl - Just look at the massive loss people suffered on this stock previously over several years. This recent rise in no way makes up for that

To try to grab these short term, even if healthy %, run ups in share price is gambling not investing.

I've done very well thank you by being more selective and astute.