Origo Partners Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 17/1/2019 13:59

They are focussing on dubious expenses first I believe?

[oxs] 17/1/2019 09:47

Have you read all the more recent news? At no point have they said they arnt going after the directors, although I would imagine they will only do so if they think there is a high on 100% chance on it being worthwhile.

Granted and no one can deny that up until now things haven't been particularly good but that doesn't mean going forward a little value won't be delivered.

The celadon asset has had around $160m spent on it f we got our share of that on top of the Navy which is already 0.6 for the odds, we would be looking at around 2.5p per piece... & tbh if you look at how much of a monster e celadon mine is & the fact the communication has been good from the biggest shareholder and other companies invested such as sppc and bakersteel there is nothing to believe it couldn't be sold for $300-500m (imo) then we are looking at 4p+ per share...

A lot of its buts and maybes which is why this remains a punt but none the less a punt with a great deal of upside and limited downside as the discounting has already been and done!!

There were 2 £15k buys on the prefs this morning.

[robizm] 17/1/2019 09:28

The previous accounts are full of fraud yet they are not going after the previous directors or nomad

[oxs] 17/1/2019 09:25

Yes Zcaprd7 and pointless distributing it at this stage.. Something will come of this in the near term :) just hang in there!

[zcaprd7] 17/1/2019 09:14

They have to say "working capital" otherwise it would have to be distributed...

[oxs] 17/1/2019 09:02

Robizm because its a new board, kicked the old board out, they were put in to return value to shareholders & if you look at the remaining investments, celadon being one in particular, which is 6 months into the sale of a 1.1bt thermal coal mine with a 6mt pa mining licence, its worth a lot more than it is on our books for.

Its a punt but it could 10 bag.

That's why!!

[robizm] 17/1/2019 08:54

Why are people still buying these. They have lost many millions and have never given any money back. They make a $2 million dollar sale and say the usual working capital.

[oxs] 11/1/2019 14:28

Limits changed after that sell.

400k @ 0.25 & then it's 0.38 for anything over that amount.

[oxs] 11/1/2019 11:25

Yes. Limits are 700000 @ .25 then it jumps to 0.32 & 0.41 & 1.5m is 0.55

And tiny amount of buying and this will rocket.

Nice to see you showing some signs of faith Zcaprd7 :) good luck mate.

[zcaprd7] 11/1/2019 03:35

Had a tiny top up here, can buy for 0.24p...

[oxs] 04/1/2019 14:55

Now we can discuss till the cows come home if or if not will get full value our of it... It is, no doubt, a punt.

But none the less a punt that might hit 2p+ and given the current nav, which has already been reduced, still stands at 0.65p for the ordinary shares..

So it's a punt. With a reasonable risk reward.

[oxs] 04/1/2019 14:53

Zcaprd7 - liquidation timeline has already passed. November 2018 was the date from memory.

Russman that maybe so.. but that doesn't alter the fact that 1.1b tons of proven thermal coal, with a 6MT per annum mining licence in place, with built up surrounding infrastructure & over $100m spent on it is worth more than $40m.

As the new bod have stated in the results .. it appears to have intrinsic value.

[russman] 04/1/2019 06:12

There is a reason the share price has always stood at a large discount to OPPs "perceived" value.

[zcaprd7] 03/1/2019 11:55

Well, that was my view a while ago, I'd assumed the nav was fantasy, and thought half of that was achievable (4p or so) - the write down to zero seemed harsh.Don't they need to ask shareholders permission to extend the liquidation timeline soon?

[oxs] 27/12/2018 16:15

Zcaprd7

So weve just established that the new management are far less likely to rip us off..

The legal side of China is not as important if the Mgmt of CELADON are also not going to rip us off, which as we talked about before seems highly unlikely to happen given their updating when it would seem they need not have bothered.

So are we nit picking ?

I believe so :) for every $10m returned to the share price it adds 1.3p to the shareprice.

Which is Chang tan west was sold for only the amount that has been spent on it these ordinary shares would be worth around 2.6p !!!

It all comes down to those factors. Management is highly highly unlikely to rip us off. So will celadon rip is off & will they make their money back ?

Imo the answers No & Yes seem most obvious given all evidence.

Which means we are still sat on a multibagger.

[zcaprd7] 27/12/2018 12:54

Well, yes, but there's only so much they can do, and what are legal rights in China like?

[oxs] 26/12/2018 11:43

These guys have been brought in by the shareholders to recover as much value as possible.

Specialized in Asian corporate law & put in place to do a job by people with exactly the same interests as ourselves.

Slightly different senario wouldn't you agree?

[zcaprd7] 21/12/2018 10:32

It happened with the last bod?

[oxs] 12/12/2018 16:31

Always the case when investing in the market tho eh although I really don't see that happening here...........

Fingers crossed for us anyways.

I'll be buying some more in the new year if we haven't heard anything.

Catch you when the news is out.

[zcaprd7] 12/12/2018 11:35

I was being cynical... The current management could sell the whole thing off cheaply to their mates, after kitchen sinking all the "bad news"...

[oxs] 11/12/2018 03:20

"Management have guided shareholders as to what return they might expect, and St Peter Port has discounted this considerably"

Even clearly stated how much shareholders should expect from any sale, not the wisest move unless you intend on paying up.

[oxs] 11/12/2018 03:11

Why would Celadon bother reporting to OPP & SPPC in the last 5 months ? having clearly mentioned to SPPC previously how much to expect for the asset (of which they marked it down considerably) if their intentions was, as you say to rip us off at the last minute ?

That makes little to no sense whatsoever... SPPC had pretty much written it off & yet..

""Celadon, a company which St Peter Port has previously written down to zero, recently reported to its shareholders that it had signed a deal to sell its main asset for a significant sum."

Why would they... they culd have slipped out the backdoor without anyone even noticing as these guys had already written it down to 0 ... no logic in it.

Our management / new board as much as their intentions seem to be clearly genuine... don't think they have a clue when it comes to the holdings, take the farm for example... in the most recent results they refer to finding out what happened t it as they didn't know, something a very quick google search clearly shows it wen't bust...

Just because 70% of the holdings have proven to be a write off, doesn't automatically make the other 30% so & to me this seems to be the stance the mgmt have taken, very very cautious.. and even so, not written down to 0.

It is without a risky play, its on the more speculative side of things but could offer 1000% upside, a punt worth taking, imo. We'll see i hope so for both of our sakes.

[zcaprd7] 10/12/2018 14:38

Yes, indeed, but the thrust of their argument is that there are little/no legal rights, and the money has been frittered away.A state owned, Chinese company can claim its owed some money (and maybe it is) and then nab the whole lot...

[oxs] 10/12/2018 12:12

Personally Zcaprd I think it is clear to see that the new management are things:

1. Very stringent, they are clearly being very cautious

2. They don't actually know a lot about the company, its in a mess and have only been invlved for in most cases less than 12 months.

Their comment of "Clearly holds intrinsic value" is hardly saying that this is all worthless ?? however they are clearly happy to keep the current valuation on Celadon until any value is proven & in the bank...

Their stance doesn't have any baring on the amount Celadon is worth infact it has absolutely nothing to do with what someone is willing to pay for a mine of this size.

[zcaprd7] 10/12/2018 02:36

I wish I could believe it - why are we being fed a "this is all worthless" line by the new BOD though?