Origo Partners Share Discussion Threads

[oxs] 04/12/2018 18:16

zcaprd - It is all relevant...

Its at a 20/80 split in favor of the Prefs ... so this means, say for arguments sake they distributed $5m to shareholders, the ords would be entitled to $1m which is the equivalent to around 0.2p $10m = 0.4 & $15m 0.6 or 100% up from todays share price

(Bare in mind that the PREF's market cap is $6.5m which actually makes the Ordinary shares far better value to purchase from these levels)

It gets interesting after the first $15m has been distributed as then it is at a 56/44% split in favor to ords...

So for every $10m split after the $15m has been returned it would be $5.6m to the ordinary shareholders which at todays conversion is £4.4m or 1.4p on to the share price.

Granted there are no guarantees that we will see over $15m distributed however I do think there is good evidence to suggest we may well do.

Take Celadon mining of which we own 9% of as an example.

Holding a 1.1b ton asset with a 6MT per year mining licence... China's biggest mine in Mongolia and is the second biggest mine in the world has a resource of 1.7MT... Rio tinto has sold manies of smaller resource size then Celadons mine in the past for upwards of $1b.

I refer to the results on SPPC may 2017::

"Celadon owns two coal projects in Inner Mongolia. Although management are committed to delivering a return to shareholders through the sale of these assets, this is proving extremely difficult. Management have guided shareholders as to what return they might expect, and St Peter Port has discounted this considerably"

The asset was written on SPPC's books in these results at £2m ... this is a "considerable discount"

6MT of Coal is worth around $600b per year to the buyer.

Average cost price for coal extraction in china is around 50% ...

So lets.. for arguments sake take a sale price of $500m ... it would take less than 2 years to pay off the asset which at 1.1b tons and 6mt extraction a year has a mine life of over 100 years.

Negotiations have been going on a long time... originally to a state owned company which fell through due to the paris agreement and since opened up with another potential buyer.

From the most recent SPPC results::

"Celadon, a company which St Peter Port has previously written down to zero, recently reported to its shareholders that it had signed a deal to sell its main asset for a significant sum. However, this sale is conditional on, amongst other things, the proposed purchaser obtaining finance over the next twelve months. We will continue to monitor events and, should a deal be completed, St Peter Port may have to adjust its NAV."

& from OPP's most recent results::

"Celadon Mining Ltd.

There have been reports of positive developments in connection with the controlling shareholder's efforts to monetize Celadon's assets, but we have received these sorts of positive reports before - note for example the representation in Origo's 2015 Annual Report that "[a]fter an active sales process during the second half of the year, Celadon entered into a Letter of Intent for the sale of Chang Tan West in November 2015 with a large Chinese state-owned enterprise." The truth of the matter is that we as minority shareholders in this privately held enterprise have no visibility into any negotiations to sell Celadon's assets and have never seen any letter of intent. On the other hand, the underlying assets appear to have intrinsic value. We consequently maintain the Celadon valuation at US$4.48 million, the same as period end 2017."

What is a significant sum & Intrinsic value ? All we can do is speculate and this is no doubt where our wider research comes into play.

They bought 22% of the asset for $44m taking this valuation and multiplying it by our now 100% interest would give us around $170m adding around $13m to our NAV which is currently $14m giving us a share price of around 2.5p

As far as i can tell "Lawrence Lou" who was the CEO of Westpac china an Australian company that sold in 2017 for just shy of $500m joined Celadon in 2015 as the CFO...

This man is high caliber and quite clearly has involvement within the Chinese mining sector... CFO's are often brought onboard which acquisitions and sales take place... and someone of this caliber would only be brought in if the sale was of a substantial amount.

As far as I am concerned the writing is clearly on the wall it is just a matter of time & I do expect the asset will sold for far more than the $44m equivalent it is written on our books at.

[zcaprd7] 03/12/2018 22:34

Opp have the 4m in cash, but the redistribution between the ordinary and the preference shares is the problem...

[oxs] 03/12/2018 18:58

Who have OPP or Celadon ?

[zcaprd7] 03/12/2018 01:29

Is it... They have about $4m in cash as well.

[oxs] 30/11/2018 13:25

Celadon is our ticket to rise.

[zcaprd7] 27/11/2018 08:15

Yes, I saw that, they obviously think not all is lost...

[oxs] 23/11/2018 13:27

Interesting to see Armstrong upping their stake.... Still reckon we will get a 7-9 bag on these from this level.... when is the 7 bag question.

[zcaprd7] 13/11/2018 14:24

St Peter Port has not written down any of its investments during the period under review. Celadon, a company which St Peter Port has previously written down to zero, recently reported to its shareholders that it had signed a deal to sell its main asset for a significant sum. However, this sale is conditional on, amongst other things, the proposed purchaser obtaining finance over the next twelve months. We will continue to monitor events and, should a deal be completed, St Peter Port may have to adjust its NAV.

[zcaprd7] 11/10/2018 15:09

The long sufferering shareholders I suppose...

[russman] 11/10/2018 04:23

& who is going to pay the legal fees.

[zcaprd7] 10/10/2018 18:03

Prefs finally dropped...

[zcaprd7] 29/9/2018 01:39

Entertaining stuff as always from the chairman...

[zcaprd7] 14/9/2018 14:16

Hard to say, yes, it's a fraud, some of us here reckon 1p a share perhaps... Maybe more if the previous directors are properly held to account?

[happyyoshie] 13/9/2018 21:14

I bought into this 3 years ago. Just a small punt of just few hundreds ££. My fault, I didn't research much into it as I thought only putting in few hundreds £. Reading the recent chairman report I'm shocked of so much money (investors/shareholders') gone into this and all come to nothing or almost. Did the previous not make thorough diligence into the investments they investing as they must be responsible on how they handle shareholders' money or they're part of this scam. Not only a £m but sounds like £billion altogether in so many places. Maybe one bad investment decision & losses on one investment but OMG all (except maybe one can be saved) investments evaporated! - definitely a Ponzi scheme. Are the directors not held liable or the FCA/ government get involve here?

Anyone thinking there's can be some money to be salvaged for the shareholders? Or the share price might go up a little more and buying at this price might have chance of getting some money back? I really feel for those who bought in earlier days and got more invested in.

[zcaprd7] 13/9/2018 20:33

Did you have another nibble?

[oxs] 25/8/2018 13:16

I doubt it'll be wrapped up by November. Seems most likely they will get an extension.

HY results out soon & I'm sure we'll get more clarity across the board.

[zcaprd7] 24/8/2018 15:31

Well, if I was a suspicious man, I'd say there was a bit of kitchen sinking going on, followed by a "we'll take it off your hands for 1p" type of offer.Either way, they seem intent in wrapping things up by November, which is why I held...

[oxs] 24/8/2018 14:51

Well it wouldn't surprise me if it got there & given if an RNS is upbeat very few people will be aware of the NDPS's so it may well overshoot its real value....

I've been buying for the last week and will continue to do so, interims arn't all that far away, the Chairmans comments will be an interesting read.

Note the 1m buys when the board were in China beginning of July.

Time will tell eh.

[zcaprd7] 24/8/2018 14:16

Like going up a 1000% after it relisted. I'd bite your arm off for 2p...

[oxs] 24/8/2018 09:44

Perhaps not... although, stranger things have happened on the market.

1.5p-2p is what I have in mind.

[zcaprd7] 23/8/2018 23:27

Well, I'd written them all off, I doubt I'll get the 4p I had in mind...

[oxs] 23/8/2018 20:51

I think you'll be alright for a profit personally, seems pretty obvious to me the man in charge is acting with integrity. Ex corporate lawyer, if no more value is extracted it won't be any fault of the new board.

Not long till the interims.

[zcaprd7] 23/8/2018 10:23

Might be a touch bit higher, they plunged to a low just before they delisted where I loaded up ...

[oxs] 23/8/2018 08:56

1.2p ?? but you've been here since the preference share days ?? how did you get such a low average ?

Certainly not imo, i'm a buyer from these levels

[zcaprd7] 23/8/2018 08:18

I think it's about 1.2p, so I left them, I couldn't see the point in selling them?