Oriel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[2ar] 30/8/2006 08:25

I always thought of Kaza as being the most stable of the Stan's, still top slicing has been my strategy.

[novicedave] 30/8/2006 08:18

I don't follow HMB but the 'stan' factor shouldnt really be applied too strongly to Kazakhstan (and hence to ORI)- remember that we have a copper miner based there in the FTSE100!

Personally I was just taking profits as per my trading plan, same with almost all stocks I invest in. If this rise continues on no news i'll take another 30% off the table c. 48p and hold the rest (which would then effectivly average c.12p) for the duration.

[2ar] 30/8/2006 08:13

Dave, I only sold 25% myself.
Not sure if you follow HMB if so is my post above "Tosh" as Kermit so politely put it, or have I missed something on HMB ?

[novicedave] 30/8/2006 07:50

Andy, i've taken a few profits as well, all part of the game.

Still have a decent holding, but about 30% less than it was before yesterday afternoon.

[adam] 30/8/2006 07:49

Closed at 45p in Canada on reasonable volume. Either tipped or some insider dealing. There has been a buyer around in London for a while if you note the steady stream of small sales and the T trades at the day end to mop them up. Oriel has a fair wind behind it because the chrome and nickel markets are both incredibly strong. The projects they have are both very advanced being pre-finance, they have cash in the bank, are close to their prospective markets and in the case of the chrome project it is a simple set of lens ore bodies that can be brought quickly into production.

[kermit] 30/8/2006 07:33

2AR

What a load of old tosh none of the above has anything to do with ORI.

[2ar] 29/8/2006 19:18

I'm sure you are aware of the OXS/MKD scenario (Jerooy Licence), IMO the drop on HMB has been contributed to the OXB/MKD factor. Whilst I appreciate that ORI are in Kazakhstan and not Kyrgyzstan HMB are in IMO feeling the heat and i am surprised this has not filtered through to ORI, I guess you could argue this is more of a reason to keep holding ORI as they seem to be supported very well given regional news.

I am nearly 30% up on this stock in 2 months and am happy to take profits and leave the rest. I still have an interest here and hope to see the 60p you suggest.

[globaleye] 29/8/2006 18:56

Agree with you knackers - why sell now? ORI looks to me as though it could be going to a £1 or more over the coming months!

[knackers] 29/8/2006 18:28

That's a pity as this re-rate IMO has legs to at least 60p - possibly further.

[2ar] 29/8/2006 12:40

I have topped sliced today as I need the funds elsewhere.

[2ar] 17/8/2006 07:47

Ok adam will have a look, I have enough in this sector at the moment but hope to start unwinding some of the top 3 (all going well!) later this year.

Cheers

Andy

[adam] 16/8/2006 17:26

wdurham. Not one I follow. I looked at it when it floated and rejected it but it was a different environment then I suppose. It is a tailing project as I recall, why has the share price cratered?

[wdurham] 16/8/2006 16:58

adam - just out of interest, what's your view on Braemore?

[adam] 16/8/2006 16:38

Thanks. Have a few of those or been in and out.

Have a look at MCR (compare it to Hambledon market cap and prospective production profile... MCR will produce 150k oz, plant is built and it is in West Austrlia. It has half the market cap of HMB and about the same in resources) I tipped HMB to a friend at 8p. Unfortunately as I already have so much in Kazakhstan decided not to increase my exposure. A mistake in hindsight.
wwww.mercatorgold.com


Also look at CRC (D.R Congo and Philippines). Patently high risk, but substantial upside...


And Zambezi Resources (mcap $26m) - early stage, but highly prospective low market cap. I bought mainly for the davidite.

[2ar] 16/8/2006 16:14

adam

My resource holding's in order of value are :

GFM
CDN
AST
ORM
ORI
VML
AYM
TMC
HMB


Good Luck with yours

[adam] 16/8/2006 15:48

It is true that they gain leverage and you get tax hikes or with some countries expropriation or worse. It's a risk. How much of a risk? And there is risk everywhere there are major undeveloped large deposits of anything.. that's why the Stans and other countries like DRC are attracting attention. I think you just need to keep a wide collection of stocks to spread the risk. Oriel is my biggest holding though.

[adam] 16/8/2006 14:48

I agree there are risks. Arguments about Kazakhstan being the most stable Stan are relevant but,err, arguable.
However with the forward curve of Nickel where it is, and the project having gone through feasibility study



... the market seems to have valued it at zero and taken an ultra bear case on Voskhod as well. As always Mr Market over-reacts. The Nickel production of Schevchenko would be 23k tonnes initially or 50m lb pa. Even if the margin were at long term price of $4/lb that would be $100m pa. It must be worth at least one year's pre-finance cash flow with a valuation of Nickel less than 1/3rd of where current spot is. That alone is Oriel's enterprise value. NPV given as $275m @ Ni 4.25/lb.

[2ar] 16/8/2006 14:27

adam

I agree entirely which is why I still hold half, that still doesn't stop local governments intervening but then again I guess that's always been the risk.

Looking at the bounce on HMB, maybe it was a buying op there rather than a selling here.
Oh wel !

[adam] 16/8/2006 14:08

The bull case - Nickel is $14/lb nearly! The majors are mining for Nickel in the stock market. There are not enough nickel mines coming on stream. They cost a packet to get into production, e.g. look at Ambatovy in Madagasgar. The capital costs have now gone over $2b and Inco backed out - why spend $2b and take all the risk when you can buy companies with the same resources cheaper?!!. Meanwhile Xstrata and Inco bid for Falconbridge, then Xstrata won, then Inco got bid for by Teck then CVRD now Teck again, etc. Nickel stocks are at all time lows and there are plenty of new eager Indians and Chinese being born every second to mop up any new production. Oriel's Schevchenko laterite project is not the richest or the cheapest but it is close to China and with cash costs somewhere are $2/lb or $2.50 allowing for cost inflation you have some tremendous option value for the deposits and a strategic location. Capex will be circa $600m+ which is out or Oriels range, but a seniour partner may be attracted. Oriel could JV it and still retain enough value to cover the market cap, or simply sell it 'cheaply' and use the cash for the Chrome project, or whatever.

[2ar] 16/8/2006 12:05

HMB who are also in Kazakhstan, have been hit by OXS/MKD (who are in Uzbekistan), although there is no real justification ( that I am aware of) for HMB to drop I'm surprised this has not filtered through to ORI, for this reason and a small trend line resistance at 36p I have sold half my holdings. Probably a mistake however HMB have fallen 30% odd on the back of this and I am 20% in profit here.

GL all

[mikehardman] 16/8/2006 08:47

upturn again looking promising for another pop at 40p, IMO

[flagon] 26/7/2006 17:40

Another piece of the jigsaw. Sale of Gold Assets RNS.





Good luck,


Flagon