Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[hiraniha] 22/3/2019 08:13

Well you have done well then.

Must have got in below 50 pence, no?

[someuwin] 22/3/2019 08:12

We know what the full year results will say next month (because they've already told us)

Revenue of £541K.

We have no idea what the results following that will be because they refuse to give any meaningful indications.

[jamesrs1] 22/3/2019 08:05

Dip my toes in. I’ve been invested here for 4 1/2 years. I think it’s you who has Dipped their toes in.

[hiraniha] 22/3/2019 07:46

Surely the results to come out next month will provide a better guidance for all, rather than the continual speculation on the merits of the Company, it's products and its performance?

You can dip your toes in (like I and a number of investors have) or you can just wait and see what they say in a few weeks?

[jamesrs1] 22/3/2019 06:21

With the amount of Signed deals And Deals in the pipeline I would certainly think so. Tree shake at 8 am Will test the nerve of a few. but not the long-term holders. Plenty of attempts on the other site to drag this down for personal gains are Obvious. 80p Support Will be tested. Nobody is having any of my shares on the cheap. I am very happy to sit tight and hold.

[hatfullofsky] 22/3/2019 05:42

Question is - are we worth £70m 80p support is very important

[whitegold1] 21/3/2019 23:22

I would suggest that nobody panics and sells.We will see accelerating revenues - that much is obvious. The model, the revenue streams etc is excellent. Our costs are paltry and wont ramp up anywhere near the revenue ramp up - I reckon £200-300000 more on those costs stated in the previous accounts. There could be a shock revenue guidance update - blblimey there's alot of deals bubbling away, plus many producing revenues now. It.s almost inconceivable that the share price will not double by April 2020. The threats I see are as follows.A/ Pharma trials are poor. B/ We.re taken out for say a 20% enhancement.C/ New science discoveries linked to the biome etc somehow limits our perceived value.D/ Tata deals,plans dont materialise as thought.E/ Brexit, Trump, China, sov debt issues in poor parts of Europe ...systemic shocks ...run to safer, larger ftse100 companies, defensivesF/ Advertising etc , spin offs ... no chance of a further raise??? I mean, we.re as busy as hell ...G/ New perceived competitor activity.All imho ...of course.

[zebbo] 21/3/2019 23:09

Guys, I do really believe that SOH is taking the right approach and going for the correct partners that will provide longevity. It takes time and I'm invested long term so put them in your bottom draw and relax. Deals are flowing thick and fast you cannot ask for more than that at the moment

[nobbygnome] 21/3/2019 23:06

>> pol

Completely agree. I am amazed how short sighted so many people on here are. Just look beyond the end of your nose and realise you have backed a winner, however long it takes!

[pol123] 21/3/2019 22:34

Like a masochist Im enjoying the pain.

The negativity is welcome as it brings capitulation and the best top up or buy opportunities


......Enjoy the pain

[imnotlong] 21/3/2019 22:34

I must be a naysayer then.

The points in the first paragraph remain key for me.

It would appear that they are key not just for me, but for the wider Opti investors (traders) as well. It’s not a brexit effect.

Perhaps and probably best not to look at the share price for a few months.

But it is kind of addictive. Just like it is for Rayrac to comment as well.

[pol123] 21/3/2019 22:30

They are doing so many deals its just becoming the norm. At some point they will show us the money and a forecast and then we will move North very quickly

[best1467] 21/3/2019 21:36

I feel the weakness is down to no deals been reported from the India trip as of yet which is a concern but something could happen any day but longer it is the more negative it will become just my opinion

[riskybusiness1] 21/3/2019 20:51

I completely agree & it is frustrating being kept in the dark on specific deals. I don't think we can really expect a running commentary though especially with NDA's, surely SOH would love to tell the market the developments with some of these industry leading multi £bn partners. We can come to our own estimates, there's 30+ agreements if each of them did miserably @ £100kpa each that would be £3m with existing deals. We know some of these deals will be £1m+ alone. It's just the timing of when a significant amount of them are selling product that's the big problem, totally down to the fundamental model. Once it comes through it will only go in one direction as more & more filter through.

[incanus] 21/3/2019 19:19

Risky, for me elrico's opening para is the most important and quite brave of him.

'On learning OptiBiotix (OPTI) CEO. Stephen O'Hara was planning another interview (with Proactive) I suggested he need not bother unless he can demonstrate the rapid revenue hockey curve is on the upward trajectory, and or update on the 2 SweetBiotix agreements currently in place, or at least one is. Or update on progress with 2 x TATA, for LPGOS and SlimBiome, UK retail outlet for SlimBiome and or UK pharmacy chain for SlimBiome medical. In my view, it is lack of perceived progress which is frustrating long term investors more, even more so than Brexit and our useless civil service and a large proportion of our hapless politicians.'

It looks like the proactive interview went live just as elrico was planning to go live. Other than outlining the size of the new partner and emphasise the market does not understand the significance of this partnership there was nothing in this interview to inspire confidence. Elric is spot on with his view of what is needed in an interview, but Soh refuses to deviate from his overcautious strategy.

Lets put it this way. Soh breaks down the agreements into 1/3s. So why not offer conservative figures based on the minimum terms. If as he suggest some will not deliver, other will over-deliver, it should follow reasonable conservative figures should be safe.

We need a bullish broker note.

[riskybusiness1] 21/3/2019 19:08

I suppose 'much the same' of signing multi £bn companies to distribute product with the CEO explaining its worth has somehow become the tedious norm here. The 9-12 month lag between agreement & product launch combined then with license royalties paid quarterly,halfly & yearly is the root of the reasonable cautiousness by the market. It's the typical uncertainty that every license model business will have until it proves itself, the £550k in the first ever trading statement at YE was the first sign this is exactly what's happening. SoH isn't hyping the market but just getting on with building a long term sustainable businesses as he explains below. It's just the typical drawback to the early phases of the commercial model. From the market reaction of news yesterday you'd think they've agreed to have a picnic rather than an exclusive distribution deal with a major player in 2 major European markets. SOH to Elrico 'If we gave numbers this is deemed to be a forecast and we would have to report back to AIM on whether that forecast was achieved or not. Given distributors can often delay a launch for a range of reasons (some really positive as they want more stock as they have created demand from marketing) this would lead to a profit warning which can have a big impact on share price.Given these are new partners and we don't have a trading history with them whilst this would satisfy the market in terms of numbers it is not a responsible way to build a business for long term investors.I have reiterated the size of the sales per year for small, medium, and large companies, and of course highlighted the size of DKSH. This is not a small deal with a small national company but a £8.6bn p.a revenues corporate with a large sales force who will give us multichannel market access (e-commerce, telesales, retail, pharmacies) and we would hope will lead to substantive annual revenues. Their risk is reputational damage and of course loss of exclusivity.'

[failedqs] 21/3/2019 18:19

I bought another £10k worth this afternoon - great prospects of short term decent gains at this level and long term huge gains....

[colinzeal] 21/3/2019 18:13

I think Andrew Scott is getting a bit tired of asking him for revenue forecasts too.

[imnotlong] 21/3/2019 17:59

Slarty, that’s a sight I don’t wish to see.

[slartybartfaster] 21/3/2019 17:52

Risky, and sorry fella, but it was much the same. Even elrico has pulled the gloves off. There needs to be more progressive news on a number of fronts as outlined by elrico. It looks like he is about to dump his load. :)

[parob] 21/3/2019 17:48

A reminder of Director buys last year:Neil Davidson:1/2/18 - 165K at 60p11/7/18 - 210K at 71p30/7/18 - 103K at 98.6pSean Christie (and wife):10/10/18 - 125K at 80p

[rayrac] 21/3/2019 17:43

If, and I say if, there is any cream...then it will be DKSH who will take the cream. And that interview was even worse waffling than before. DKSH will probably put their moniker on any product and opti will be lucky if they even get a mention on it!

I think soh has done great damage to his foot.

Smoke and mirrors

[riskybusiness1] 21/3/2019 17:08

Good interview. DKSH £8.6bn turnover company missing a functional ingredient to their weight management range. Looking to sell slimbiome, slimbiome medical & Go figure products in Italy & Spain through their vast sales network of pharmacies, retailers, telecommunications & partners. Sales targets included & must be delivered within this financial year to retain exclusivity. After trial period if they perform they can look at giving them ASIA where they are even more prominent than in Europe.