Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[slartybartfaster] 22/3/2019 18:54

Risky, are those figure H1 to H2 or FY estimated?

[riskybusiness1] 22/3/2019 17:02

Hockey stick is clearly a metaphor to a continuous rise in sales. How fast is a another question. The confusion lies in those applying this comment by SOH as continuous growing sales as though the business was a normal model like Sainsbury's selling product day in day out. Royalties are paid intermittently throughout the year on a license model so asking for an update after a few months on sales wouldn't help in any way other than to gauge how the online platform is doing as this is the typical model people are use to. As I have said hockey stick growth would be seen over the yearly accounts eg £540k - £1.5m - £3m - £6m each year from now as the deals fall in to place. That's immense growth especially when these revenues fall straight to the bottom line.

[m4rtinu] 22/3/2019 14:18

Perhaps a hockey stick isn't the best metaphor to use. But then one person's hockey stick could be another person's walking stick! We are looking for step changes in half-yearly revenues. And by implication profit (eventually).

[shrewdmole] 22/3/2019 14:16

Just read and caught up on 64 posts.

It’s the same rehash of criticism about soh which I really don’t understand mainly due to the fact he is the largest private shareholder.

Would most here prefer no nda’s With major players in preference of loads of lightweight small local sellers of product.

I’m still heavily invested here, and will add on weakness, as soh is the tug pulling the big tanker out the harbour right now. Once that tanker gets upto speed it’s only getting faster.

Forget projections just please anyone with any serious investment knowledge research the partners Opti have been signing up.

All real serious players in their own sector and geographical markets with established routes to market.

And soh gives us hints too where he can re delayed launch could be due to increased stock demand.

Read between the lines.

Revenue will always be historic anyway on a fast growing sales trend.
S

[toyin] 22/3/2019 13:40

Not wrong risky, my £3.75m looking better by the day! Lol.

[riskybusiness1] 22/3/2019 13:23

Pol that's why a week after the India trip people that expect instant contracts haven't a clue to the process it just doesn't work like that. SOH has gone to meet massive clients of Zeons these will lead to deals over the next weeks & months ahead as the serious negotiations happen following the introduction. INL I think it's petty questioning what SOH says is true as Zeon was signed almost instantly like he said and has delivered. The other deal is probably there but we have no idea what could be holding back an official RNS. As I've pointed out before there is a handful of agreements we know of that have not been RNS'd. Also hockey stick effect doesn't work like Sainsbury's selling product. This is license model the hockey stick effect will be seen in the yearly accounts because of royalty payments in various periods throughout the year. Realistically this type of business building should be £540k £1.5m £3m £6m £-£12m etc that imo is how the hockey stick will go. Also why would you call milestone payments non-recurring? They are paid in 6 figure amounts adding up to £1m+ so clearly these will be recurring over the next year or so in variable amounts. We have no idea how much the first was, likely will be the smallest of the lot because it was paid just on the signing of the contract. We have no idea though so we're likely to be surprised.

[pol123] 22/3/2019 11:54

SOH is between a rock and a hard place based on the current posting population.
We want answers to the following
A - Forward forecast
B - Rev per deal
C - Which companies are delivering vs which are not
D - Is TATA really centre of the universe
E - What is the real shape of a hockey stick
F - Why have we not got into Waitrose
G - Reoccurring costs vs non reoccurring
H - No broker f'cast

Basically people want a full set of accounts

HOW MANY TIMES...Its to early in the cycle.

Some posters here have no idea how corporates work (I do, as I work for one) Getting things done takes longer than you realise. Im really surprised that they are getting as many deals as they are, in such a short time frame. Once you have hooked corporates and they trust you they keep coming back. Trust me thats how it works in the real world.

This industry is crying out for innovation and we are providing that in spades

[hiraniha] 22/3/2019 11:35

Response after chasing up the date for the full year results:-


Hi,

We have issued a trading statement and will release full results in the middle of April.

Kind Regards,

Steven Riley
Head Of Online Sales And Marketing

[primal123] 22/3/2019 11:08

Hopefully it is, he did say when dealing with corporates it can take longer so we just need to wait and see. One of them was signed Zeon.

[imnotlong] 22/3/2019 11:04

Not everything he writes comes true....

What we hope you will see at the start of 2019 are a number of Indian companies that will have been signed up, which all link in with our agreement with TATA. We are not just talking about the TATA deal, but other Indian partners to work right through India through a range of different companies.


Hopefully April will be the month.

[parob] 22/3/2019 10:58

We anticipate further revenue growth in 2019 as existing deals contribute to full year revenues, and partners continue to grow sales. More of our existing agreements will start to generate revenues this year, particularly with larger partners launching products in international markets in 2019, and new agreements continue to be signed in 2019. We anticipate further revenue growth will occur from our online platform (OPTIBIOTIX.Online), SlimBiome(R) Medical (which received its CE mark and medical device registration at the end of the accounting period), and our SweetBiotix(R) , OptiBiotic(R) and microbiome modulating platforms. Revenue growth from these areas will benefit from the appointment of Frederic Narbel as Managing Director of OptiBiotix's prebiotic division containing its SweetBiotix, OptiBiotic and microbiome modulating technology platforms. Frederic was Vice President of Sales for Nutrition Solutions at Agropur, a company with annualised sales of $6.4 billion (2017), and will join us from 1 March 2019.

[imnotlong] 22/3/2019 10:51

Not sure you will find a post from me moaning about a lack of numbers on any particular contract.

My issue is overall revenue.

I have already pointed out that a large proportion of the H2 growth was from non recurrent sources. So I would be happy if SoH just stated he expects H1 revenue will exceed H2 revenue from last year.

[dire cons] 22/3/2019 10:45

I can see where you're coming from someuwin, and it is very frustrating.
When you have no historical figures to go on, it's always going to be tricky to forecast.
To be fair, if SOH did publish some forecast figures they would HAVE to be extremely conservative or else he could be accused of over-egging.

[primal123] 22/3/2019 10:43

People like you don't listen that's why, I criticised before we got the trading update and the importance of getting one. We now have it. You guys are criticising the company for what? Numbers in RNS? The strategy is clear, this won't be done. Size of deals? You already have this. People are criticising as the share price has fallen and that's the bottom line. This is very disappointing as I believe we should be higher, but in this uncertain market with no buyers present, I am being patient. I am sure this will turn.

[imnotlong] 22/3/2019 10:38

Primal, you do come over as very intolerant of any criticism about the company.

[primal123] 22/3/2019 10:19

Yes, but that is the strategy that SOH has put in place and it has been the strategy from day 1. This isn't something new, which is what I am pointing out. There has been a trading statement which has shown the increase in revenues. There has been big deals signed this year in Japan, Russia and India. The market are simply writing off these deals as well as the other 30 odd.

[primal123] 22/3/2019 10:15

He has already given the size of the deals, he has said from the outset this won't happen so how can you say this is due to weak numbers? We all know your strategy is to trade this share and to be negative when you want back in. If you think the numbers are weak why are you invested here?

[someuwin] 22/3/2019 10:11

"Investors need to accept this or sell up and move on!"

No. Investors have the right to criticise the company for not being more upfront about the potential value of these agreements.

When they make these deals both sides must have a fair idea of the volume sales expected. SOH could give us some ballpark idea of potential revenues in the future. Every other company manages to do it.

SOH's reason for not doing so is sounding more and more like an excuse for holding back weak numbers to me.

[toyin] 22/3/2019 10:10

Primal, I am not complaining I am pointing out the frustration, which I fully understand. I know why we cant have numbers but it is frustrating because as investors we want everybody to see what we think we see, and then the share price will rise. If you ask 5 investors on this board what this years numbers will be you will get 5 different answers, so if we cant agree how can you expect the market to price it correctly?

[primal123] 22/3/2019 10:08

As TT has said, it's up to the investor, it's your money. If you don't believe in the strategy then don't stay! End of.

[imnotlong] 22/3/2019 10:01

Or stay and watch the price drop further.

[primal123] 22/3/2019 09:57

Did you not see the trading update? It showed clear progress. You are not going to get an RNS with numbers as they are new partners and no surety of delivery and timing of delivery.Investors need to accept this or sell up and move on!

[toyin] 22/3/2019 09:49

Primal, the issue here is lack of numbers, the end.

[primal123] 22/3/2019 09:12

The issue is TW here, we all know SOH is not going to release numbers in an RNS for the reasons he has specified many times, so why people are believing TW over SOH is beyond me. There has been strong deal flow and I have never seen anything like this before where the shares go down when there has been big deals announced with corporates. People have seen the increase in revenue in the trading statement. All the big deals are still on the table, Tata, Supermarket, Sweetbiotix x2, when dealing with corporates it can take time. We need to have patience.