Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 21/3/2018 09:10

SoH tone didn't lead me to believe any forecast will be forthcoming. Because they don't know or feel confident enough to predict. All imo

[colinzeal] 21/3/2018 09:06

yeah that's a fair point. Hopefully they can release guidance along with the next contract news or something.

[aspex] 21/3/2018 09:03

Re Annual Results. They are to year end only - November 17(?)Any numbers since then can still be only unofficial except direct sold product through the company. So still a bit less than helpful.

[vanduke] 21/3/2018 09:01

Lower highs...lower lows...44p...

[pj 1] 21/3/2018 08:59

Whilst not impossible, its not usual for a ''Blue sky' Company to advise forecast in a Results RNS. It is usually done via a detailed broker note, compounded in this case by the complexity of the different prospective Revenue streams.

A detailed Broker note is sometimes circulated to the Brokers preferred clients (smaller Brokers?), who have paid for their service first.

[judijudi] 21/3/2018 08:55

Sub 60p here we come :(

[rafboy] 21/3/2018 08:52

1bokke, that made me laugh. Have a good one.

[colinzeal] 21/3/2018 08:48

Sure, but I mean who actually listens to that, bar hardcore OPTI PIs such as us? A quick glance of the youtube hits for that particular interview....drumroll please....974!! It's not exactly an RNS released via the LSE which is going to bring forward numbers to a wider audience, not least the press; coverage in which we've been lacking for some time.

[1bokke] 21/3/2018 08:48

Got to be honest, right now I'd probably settle for an Rns that said hi how are ya?

[rafboy] 21/3/2018 08:42

I think SOH did that in his last proactive interview.

[colinzeal] 21/3/2018 08:38

Forecasts I mean, aka proper revenue guidance. They will need to assure the market of forthcoming expectations. As stated, it's the only way we'll see this share price malaise arrested, bar any huge contract announcements.

[pj 1] 21/3/2018 08:24

Do you mean forecasts in the millions, or Results in the million? Confused

[f3rdinand] 21/3/2018 08:23

If you think that figures will be in the millions you better sell up now! No chance!

[colinzeal] 21/3/2018 08:20

For me, a lot depends on the final results at the end of April. If headlines numbers aren't in the millions we could see the share price crater. To be fair, there is a lot of hot air priced into the share price, even if we all think it should be higher. The numbers won't lie. Full faith in SOH and the team to deliver though.

[pglancy] 21/3/2018 08:13

Alan, I think elrico explained it well. It is he that explained Nizo's role to me months ago. I don't understand the process as well as others do. My thinking is fast tracking comes into the equation once the strains have been identified, product testing and so forth, then you approach or wait for potential partners. I don't think Opti had products to fast track 3 years ago. I can the point you are making. It does look as though Optis notion of 'fast tracking' has been a failure and perhaps looks like the company has talked up the possibility.

[riskybusiness1] 21/3/2018 00:23

In general the deals announced since last May are entirely different to the deals when the products were still under development. You don't give exclusivity for 5 formulations unless there is some certainty surrounding revenues.Opti also now have an entirely more commercially focused set up now having manufacturers in place across the three core platforms. Knighton for slimbiome, Sacco LPLDL and TATA for LPGOS. You can't seriously start building revenues until you have a manufacturer in place to make the physical product.As elrico points out due to the number of partners Opti are working with there is bound to be conflicts of interest.SOH directly mentioned the wary investors and how they will clearly see the transition from R&D to full commercialisation very soon translated by the numbers. Whether you believe this or not going off the credibility of the bod will imo mean the majority of people paying more.

[elrico] 20/3/2018 22:46

Alan - I don't disagree with your view the languishing share price is linked to the revenues disclosure - uncertainty. Initial excitement after early RNSs announcing partnerships, was most likely due to the misplaced perception goodies would be on the shelves within weeks and the wonga would be flowing in. Time has of course demonstrated this is not the case and time trudges on when dealing with MNs. Even so, SOH has offered guidance, from the small partners, medium, large and retail, as well has stated interested has exceeded expectations.

To go back to your Nizo point, which is a fair observation, which I think I have covered to an extent. I would add....speculatively (I would like to make clear) perhaps the longevity the dairy related products are perhaps tied to the size of the US partners SACCO are dealing with, and perhaps even DSM, if we go back to the resent RNS. We know SACCO had dairy corporates lined up even before the SSW expo, which was only last September. SOH has previously stated these can take 9-18 months from initial inquiries to sign-off.

Thankfully, we don't need to raise cash, thus I guess, we are holding out to see if SOH expectations of profitability in 2018 holds water. I like in hope SOH is aiming for shock and awe. ;)

[dire cons] 20/3/2018 22:20

Owenmo. I last saw my GP just over a week ago. She was very interested in LPLDL Control and seemed well aware of the microbiome and gut health, But she did say that any meaningful results would come around 6 months in. I'm coming to the end of my 90 capsules and have another 90 day box waiting. I'll keep you posted.

[primal123] 20/3/2018 22:19

We know things are reaching the end point in terms of discussions, e.g large deal with multinational/ online store confirmation/ Gofigure retail listing etc etc

[alanrussell] 20/3/2018 22:01

pglancy - extracts from the RNS in January 2015:

" .... These results have led to this JV agreement which has been established to develop, manufacture and distribute (both directly and indirectly) the weight management yoghurt and other dairy products to global markets. ..... This agreement will allow OptiBiotix to fast-track entry into global markets. ... OptiBiotix has a strategy to partner with multiple organisations and this JV agreement creates an opportunity to access global markets to commercialise the weight management formulation in yoghurt and other dairy products."

OK so maybe "distribute dairy to global markets" and "commercialise" don't mean a commercial partnership. It doesn't explicitly say revenue producing but one rather hopes that that is the point of these JVs etc.

Elrico, I appreciate your comments on timescale. On the rare occasions I considered investing in small pharmas I used to estimate the timescale to market by assuming every possible delay .... and then doubling the resulting time. Even then it usually lagged!

To return to my opening remark, if there are enough cautious people like me around, interested in buying OPTI but wanting to see some real revenues start to flow, then the share price is likely to languish despite RNSs. £12,500 per month, that's the last declared revenue for OPTI. It may well be that the first evidence of real revenue will see the price take off but I am happy to wait and sit on my existing holding. I sincerely hope that in 12 months the price is at £2 and I am looking back at this and squirming with embarrassment!

[slartybartfaster] 20/3/2018 21:53

What are you expecting, primal?

[primal123] 20/3/2018 21:48

A Wednesday RNS would be good. Breaks the trend of the predictable Tuesday RNS!

[riskybusiness1] 20/3/2018 21:47

I think Alan's comment is pretty much spot on. The market is not differentiating these new commercial deals to the earlier development deals. Since the HLH deal SOH has tried to give an idea of what is expected from each of these deals per annum in terms of revenues. Great opportunity for the bold or simply more patience required for those who want to see the numbers. SOH explained this very well in his last interview.

[slartybartfaster] 20/3/2018 21:39

I'm sitting comfortably with my lot, thanks to mad manc elrico.