Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[timberwolf3] 13/11/2020 15:41

Warranty - Pretty expensive and out of Orphans league to take FLU-v to market.

[warranty] 13/11/2020 15:18

Thanks PO and others regarding retaining all parts of Orph and growing the business. I understand CF isn’t the long term type and his expertise is as an entrepreneur and a quick in and out personality but as an investor, I’m just thinking that I might prefer to grow the Orph business in all areas towards a much bigger entity, which might deliver better returns than a quick divi now. It seems to me that with the assets in place and the growth opportunities of Hvivo alone, plus potential income with data from the wearables possibilities, there would be enough cash to carry out the stage 3 tests of Flu-v themselves. If successful, the returns would be enormous just from that alone. I wouldn’t expect CF to see this through and to be fair he possibly doesn’t have the expertise to do it himself, but he could maybe sell the whole Company to someone who does, rather than just in bits.

[felchandbart] 13/11/2020 14:39

I notice SNG and ODX have got a bit of wind in their sails this afternoon. Wouldn't it be good if we eclipsed them with a stonking RNS just before the close or some earth shattering news from CF after the bell. Rather than reverting to the usual weekend cliche, instead, I'm inclined to say that I couldn't think of a better place to have my money parked come Monday opening.

[trader_3] 13/11/2020 12:51

Understanding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy

‘To assess a vaccine's impact on infectiousness, some phase 3 trials examine the amount or duration of viral shedding in laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic participants by home collection of saliva samples and frequent polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. However, this would not capture any change in viral shedding for asymptomatic participants. Moreover, serology tests detect previous infection and cannot reconstruct shedding during active infection. To measure viral load in both symptomatic and asymptomatic participants, it is necessary to conduct frequent (e.g., weekly) viral testing, irrespective of symptoms, to capture participants during their period of acute infectiousness. The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trial is testing participants in the United Kingdom for the virus weekly regardless of symptoms, but not in other trials for which protocols have been released. Even weekly testing will not give detailed information about the effect of the vaccine on viral shedding, and the relationship between viral loads and infectiousness is unknown; nonetheless, this approach is likely to provide some evidence if viral loads are on average lower among vaccinated people.

Human challenge vaccine studies, in which individuals in a randomized controlled trial are deliberately exposed to the virus, could generate high-quality data on the effect of vaccines on viral shedding.’

hxxps://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6518/763

[ross k] 13/11/2020 12:43

Ok Thanks for clarity, I would like to know what's in the deal they did with the tier 1 pharma.

[judijudi] 13/11/2020 12:42

Ross,
No

If a company wants to buy another and both agree it’s for sale then they sign a heads of terms agreement
A potential buyer does not have to sign a deal just to get information

[ross k] 13/11/2020 12:36

Just having a mad thought, most on here myself included think we will end up getting bought out by a bigger company, Pharma. My thought just now is that recent deal done with the tier 1 German pharma company has very little detail in the announcement, it never said who or gave financials details, could it be this German pharma has done this deal to get a more in-depth analyst of Open Orphan to make a bid for us. Anything is possible I suppose

[m5] 13/11/2020 12:25

Pierre, I was thinking that as I typed it. LOL.

I think the point you make about Institutions is a valid one. I think also CF is a bit of a maverick and some of the city types will not like his style and directness. They prefer big fat CEO's that tow the line!! Anyway, whatever way you look at it they are missing out on a great pay day. As I have said before I am glad they don't look after my money.

[judijudi] 13/11/2020 12:19

Roll up
Roll up
Roll up
Buy one get one free

[pierre oreilly] 13/11/2020 12:00

m, it used to be half his net worth, it's probably 95% now!

[pierre oreilly] 13/11/2020 11:57

It hit 32p before the pfizer madness set in, a fair way to go, and plenty sold above the current price so an easy decision to buy back in.

Warranty - a sort of good point. It's c's strategy and always has been, to flog off everything really. It suits his personality, and he's excellent at what he does. But, I think for exactly the reason you stated, insts aren't atm too interested in buying. They want to see a likelyhood of growing profits over years, not one-off mega gains like we're heading for. So swings and roundabouts - we get the value when bits are sold, and not in advance in a shareprice reflecting the prospects (due to lack of insts imo). For punters, it means the price is way undervalued, but the value (say 80/90/100p) won't be reflected in the price, but will come as a few one-offs of 5/20/30/50p, the 5p soon as a divi). At least it explains why the insts aren't buying - but they could always change, and why we're 4 or 5 times undervalued.

[ross k] 13/11/2020 11:53

27 seems to be our resistance, once past 28 we should have a crack at the 30s one would think. Exciting times ahead for us as the various deals get announced.

[malcolmmm] 13/11/2020 11:49

Well you never know, I had an internet security share years ago that went from 2p -3 p to 130p in a few months . I sold at 10p a bit soon ,It was a tip on SCSW and they said it made quite a few subscribers millionaires

[m5] 13/11/2020 11:49

warranty13 Nov '20 - 11:03 - 7971 of 7975

I very much doubt we will be around in 12 months time, so I would not get hung up about growing the business in areas that are of no real interest to CF. We also get a nice divi and that means he gets his investment back. When you have half your net worth invested in a business I am sure that's attractive to CF and I am sure his Mrs!!

CF is an entrepreneur, his fix, if you will, is to bring the constituent parts together, drop overheads, get rid of non core assets, and turn it into a profitable cash cow. So far so good. He will not be one of these CEO'S that just turn up and take the big salary and sit back. The for sale is already up. As he says everything is for sale, its just getting the right deal. It will happen sooner rather than later and CF will be off onto his next project with bulging pockets. Good luck to him.

[rivaldo] 13/11/2020 11:45

Great to see ORPH so solid against most of the other COVID plays - rightly so considering COVID is merely a highly rewarding bonus on top of the core activities.

[lazarus2010] 13/11/2020 11:40

I'm here for £10 :-)))))))))))))))))

[malcolmmm] 13/11/2020 11:38

Sell the whole caboodle for 110p , most would agree with that perhaps lol

[eeza] 13/11/2020 11:30

Doc's followers probably buying in.

[lazarus2010] 13/11/2020 11:09

warranty...because that's CF's strategy and he is the CEO ;-)

I can understand selling off Imutex, it's not necessarily a core asset and needs cash to fund the next stage. Yes he could JV it and reduce the stake to say 20% free carry but I think he thinks bird in the hand etc if he can get upwards of $100mln for it. With the virus data he's not selling it, he's (imho) selling the rights to use it plus as rumoured ongoing royalty fees per device sold. ORPH would still retain the ownership of the data and all future data from all these studies. They may also be a part of the deal and for each new data set they would get a set fee.

[jambam] 13/11/2020 11:09

get the feeling cathal doesn't do garage sales, he sells the whole damn house :))

[pogue] 13/11/2020 11:07

The objective has always been to sell the non core assets make the company profitable and sell, CF does not run companies that is not his expertise. He is up for entrepreneur of the year in Ireland tells you what his skill set is.

[warranty] 13/11/2020 11:03

Why would Orph sell both the wearables data, or their stake in Immutex, once it’s gone it’s gone. Surely better to retain and build up the company in the future?

[slartybartfaster] 13/11/2020 10:43

https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/11/13/openorphan/

[lazarus2010] 13/11/2020 10:12

I did mention a while back $500mln for wearables would be nothing for Apple to buy exclusivity. My feeling now is that he will not sell on exclusive terms, and he will be looking for minimum $100mln from each of the big werabale brands, so Apple, Garmin, Fitbit, Samsung plus ongoing royalties per device sold. Would expect share price to easily double from here especially with the royalty deals creating an ongoing income stream!