Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[m5] 13/7/2022 14:25

Naah, very rarely works, seen it too many times HZM being a very recent example.

[owenski] 13/7/2022 14:17

They could do with a consolidation of the share base, 1 for 3, get it down to around 200m shares in issue, it'll be less attractive to penny share traders.

[chica1] 13/7/2022 13:28

Did it trade at 10.35p? It says so with my broker

That's a new low in this cycle I believe.

[m5] 13/7/2022 13:04

Might be better on the TLY thread, its struggling to hold onto the 50 dma, might find support at 38.5p?

[sikhthetech] 13/7/2022 12:53

Isn't it odd that their cash position as of 31st May 2021 is the same as in the fy2021 results, 31st December 2021???

Despite the fact last year that the cash should build up strongly by Dec 2021, which it didn't..

"The Group is very well capitalised and was strengthened through two placings in 2020 raising a combined total of £17.9m (before expenses) and strong working capital management through advanced cash payments on major agreements. As at 31 December 2020 cash and cash equivalents were £19.2m. Cash as of end May was £15.1m, reflecting the expected release of customer prepayments in H1 2021, which should build back strongly by year end as we close contracts for execution in 2022 "

[sikhthetech] 13/7/2022 12:53

Last year, fy results were published on 17th June 2021.
They published their cash position as of 31st May 2021, 1 month before H1 end.

So if they didn't have a problem last year, why do they have a problem this year???
Very questionable and poses the question why they hiding their cash position?.

From fy2020 results last year - 17th June 2021
-- Cash and cash equivalents of GBP15.1m as at 31 May 2021

[chica1] 13/7/2022 12:48

m5..I really do think management need to be especially upfront considering Cathal Friel's failings.

Now they are talking about cash on hand on the LSE forum.In the 2020 end of year report cash on hand was mentioned in the 2021 report it wasn't.
Why?

[m5] 13/7/2022 12:33

No idea what's going on here, hopefully we have got some stake building going on, but the whole thing is becoming incredibly frustrating. I am assuming MO cannot buy any shares at the moment?

[chica1] 13/7/2022 12:23

It's very hard for an individual investor to step up here.

[digger2779] 13/7/2022 12:13

Ooh it's lunchtime and someone wants a bit of dosh for a slap up meal ffs.

[supernumerary] 12/7/2022 20:58

Good to see the tikh's still scratching that same old itch :¬)

[666james] 12/7/2022 20:37

Many thanks extrader for 4248. "Mo is very much underpromise and overdeliver" the exact opposite to CF.

The write up sounds very much like CF has written it. All rosy in the garden but the share price say different.

I really hope that Mo is not doing a CF on us. Finger/toes/legs all crossed.

[sikhthetech] 12/7/2022 19:52

Interesting read about AGM.

"We have a very strong cash balance"

What is it?
Given H1 ended 2 weeks ago, 30th June, they would know the cash balance as of H1 end.
Makes you wonder why they still refuse to provide this crucial information.


"one of the very few AIM companies that will never fundraise again "

Stupid statement to make as all too often it'll come back and bite.. Never say never...

;-)

[supernumerary] 12/7/2022 19:36

ex - thanks for that - very encouraging. Appreciate it's an old issue, but was anything said about who's selling? I'm just trying to work out whether somebody else's issues are giving us the opportunity of a lifetime. Or something else :¬)

[digger2779] 12/7/2022 16:44

12 Jul '22 - 15:53 - 4248 of 4249

That's an encouraging write up but wont be buying anymore just yet being as I'm broke!

[chica1] 12/7/2022 15:56

I'd love to see a 10% share count volume blowout day with an end of day trend reversal to finish over 13p.

[extrader] 12/7/2022 15:53

Hat-tip to Sportstrader for this :

"..I attended the AGM last Tuesday and had the opportunity to ask some questions. Was only 5-6 investors who attended. Here is some of what was said (all extremely positive).

Malaria challenge study is done. First contract to get over the line is always the hardest, but they have quite a few that are interested in doing that study, dont believe it will be too long before first contract signed. Opens up the door to similar diseases too and by end of year should have more online.

Royal free still available for covid, but always other options available for cheaper and at short notice.
No capacity issues at all. Be a nice problem to have when they need more than 1k screenings a week.

Spin offs once again said about market being closed to do them, hopefully opens up Oct/Nov time, prepared for it when market is better.

The P2 work isnt done in the quarantine facility. Its done at the screening facility. Its an add on to what they already have. Margin should be "much greater" using same facilities and resources.

Want to monetise the 80% of volunteers they cant use for P2 field based trial. 1 study going through ethics atm, and goal is to build on this as an addition. Unlimited capacity, they have 1k screenings a week, can do as many P2 studies, the restrictions is how fast can we recruit the volunteers. Love to have the problem of where screening volunteers becomes the problem of P2. Very impressed the team has done this so quickly given no history of doing it before. It wasnt client led, they actively went to the market and pushed this new avenue.
Once get on their list, you get asked to do trials on an ongoing basis, vaccine trials initial focus, but down the road, more on mild chronic diseases.

Have a facilities group that are dedicated to find the "next whitechapel hotel" within the QMB area. A lot of empty space so we can pick and choose.

Importantly with Liberum coming on, Orph and them want to be seen as a professional company. Committed with them to bring forward the financials, Sept interims where will show the market the cash balance etc

Could have done DIM very easily this year, but very hard to do anything right now, the markets are closed, will be ready for when public markets are better (kept saying about Oct/Nov was the aim)

Wont be taxes paid for some time, 120m invested into Hvivo etc

Omicron, takes time to go through each step, is complicated with finding dosage, ethics approval etc. The reward is huge. 5-6 clients very interested on coming on board, Vaxart will be the first one to do it. Vaxart pay for half of development, but Mo is asking other clients to pay as well, so 1 more client comes on board then you have the full cost paid for.

Lab services - done 3 weeks ago, will have certification by end of Aug. Offering it in addition to the challenge studies doing in house, amazing capabilities to offer every other CRO & client that dont have their own lab. Only 2-3 virology labs in Europe, so the market is significant.

What I would say is that the company seems to be in the best place its ever been in, one of the very few AIM companies that will never fundraise again who are the world leaders in a growing sector and as Mo put it is inflation and recession proof.
We have a very strong cash balance, order book is booked out for the next year, demand is increasing all the time, cost per study is increasing, world leader in the field with nobody else coming close. Nobody else can replicate this easily, comes down to experience and years of safety data.
Mo is very much underpromise and overdeliver. Upside from here is colossal. Malaria contracts wont be far away, other models being developed similar that dont require bed space, margins will be massive.

Lets see how this plays out, but I will say the future is very bright, absolute full confidence in Mo and the team. I was very impressed...."

Lots of actionables and deliverables, let's hope the team perform.

[m5] 12/7/2022 15:24

Decent volume day.

[sikhthetech] 12/7/2022 14:13

SOS100
"seeing a share fall this much requires some kind of explanation to shareholders....or is that asking too much?"

I think it's asking too much to expect an informed explanation... Even on Polb the company said there was strong shareholder support despite the fact there were still lots of PIs who hadn't received their specie shares..


Btw, TLY published preliminary fy results.

Excellent results, above expectations... lots of new contracts and contract extensions..

increasing recurring revenues now £127m+++ (2021 £113.7m)
Cash £15.3m (as of fy end 31st March, 2021 £14.8m)

Ebitda £6.2m(2021 £5m)

Dividend doubled,which is a real bonus.

Mcap £84m

[m5] 12/7/2022 12:05

Some strange goings on with trades, chunky sells chunky buys, 1.4m buy just gone through. Are we going to get a holding RNS soon? Maybe MO has hooked a few Institutions?

[owenski] 12/7/2022 12:04

Oh dear, bog 69 another recent sign up

Yet another cretin for the filter list.

[m5] 12/7/2022 10:13

Hmmm, his one and only post. Goodbye.

[manc10] 12/7/2022 09:59

drog6912 Jul '22 - 09:54 - 4240 of 4240 (Filtered)

[drog69] 12/7/2022 09:54

Simply Friel fooled us all weather he was aware that he was telling lies is the question. But he has cost a lot of people a lot of cash. This share price will never see 20p again take your losses and get out of this garbage