Opd Share Discussion Threads

[apatel21] 11/2/2008 18:28

nigel - we'll see what the share price reaction is tomorrow. You must have a big chunk of these now given they were good value @ 210p and the time to buy value shares is NOW ; ). What with you being a long term investor and all*.


*subject to share price increasing by 10% in a couple of weeks in which case abandon long term strategy and bank profits ; )

[nigelpm] 11/2/2008 17:59

Looks like OPD weren't so stupid after all eh Pat?

[apatel21] 11/2/2008 17:23

My mistake they have increased their offer by 38% !

[apatel21] 11/2/2008 17:16

Ian,

OPD have upped their offer significantly (by 24% effectively). They have managed to get funding but what will gearing look like going in to a recession? Is this good/bad for current OPD shareholders?

[jeffian] 08/2/2008 16:00

Well, it's certainly 'put-up-or-shut-up' time!

[apatel21] 08/2/2008 15:29

Ian,

It looks like game over for OPD with the takeover panel announcement today. HYDG can change from a scheme of arrangement to a normal takeover.

[jeffian] 08/2/2008 11:56

Maybe, apatel21, but unless HYDG/IMP turn up at Court (already deferred from today to 29/2/08) with 75%+ independent shareholders in the bag, it ain't going to happen. They're not there yet (otherwise they would surely have said so today) and if OPD and their supporters hold their nerve, it's difficult to see how the deadlock can be broken. It's all about cash, of course, and today's message seems to be "look, if you want cash for your shares we'll get it for you, and for those who want to hold new HYDG shares, this buyback proposal will (should?) underpin the share price against any fall in value arising from a mass sell-off by former IMP holders on the first day of trading".

Regards, Ian

[apatel21] 08/2/2008 11:20

Ian,

If as you suggest OPD are going for spoiler tactics then this can only result in an even worse perception about the credibility of the OPD directors - yes i know their credibility is shot to pieces but this may just result in a major shareholder revolt ; ) to oust them before they destroy what little value their is left in the OPD business.

I see HYDG have upped the ante again today - if only OPD had any such levers to pull ; ).

[jeffian] 01/2/2008 12:46

Maybe, but at this stage it costs nothing to hang in there rather than give up and walk away. It's a bit like tennis; even if you're in a hopeless position, keep the ball in play and make the other bloke win the point rather than give up. It's amazing how often people pluck disaster from the jaws of victory! HYDG haven't won it yet.

Regards, Ian

[apatel21] 01/2/2008 12:08

I think the fact that OPD are still hanging on in there reflects their desire to land IMP. I'm sure their trying desperately to come up with a viable alternative offer. As i say it will reflect really badly if they don't get it.

[jeffian] 01/2/2008 10:45

Yes they can, but will they? Most companies aren't interested in takeover unless they can acquire 100% and absorb business. You may control the business with 50%+, but you have to run it as a standalone company (which negates any 'synergy' savings). It's only at 75%+ that you can aggregate the figures in your accounts and only at 90%+ that you can force minority shareholders to sell to you. I would doubt that HYDG would go ahead unless thay can acquire IMP outright, but why should OPD hand it to 'em on a plate?

Regards, Ian

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 10:36

But HYDG can easily change their terms to 50% + 1, they are nearly there already.

Time this whole mess got sorted.

[jeffian] 01/2/2008 10:28

I agree it looks a bit odd, but there may be method in their madness. Firstly, they seem to have drawn a very firm line in the sand as to how much they are prepared to pay and not be drawn into 'overpaying'. Secondly, they have a degree of support which, I suspect, has more to do with which management team you back to take the enlarged company forward rather than just the price on the day of the takeover. So why not walk away, as IMP shareholders on their thread are suggesting? Well, why should they? The battle ain't over yet and it remains to be seen whether HYD will go unconditional if they can't get 75%+ acceptances, in which case there may still be something in it for OPD. They've still got their foot firmly in the door and it doesn't cost them anything to leave it there until forced to.

Regards, Ian

[deanroberthunt] 01/2/2008 08:48

are they completely nuts! I may pick some of these up when they're in double digits.

[jeffian] 31/1/2008 23:20

Yes.

"...the next closing date, which will be 1.00 pm on 31 January 2008. Any
further extension of the Offer will be publicly announced by 8.00am on the
business day following the day on which the Offer is otherwise due to
expire, or such later time or date as the Panel may agree."

[g8ta] 31/1/2008 20:08

OPD's extension finished today. Will there be any news tomorrow?

[williebiz] 31/1/2008 14:54

I think it's the 3i stake

[g8ta] 31/1/2008 13:51

I can't see why Hydrogen's share price is holding up better than OPD , or the other recruiters. Forward pe just under 10, 9m or so debt and AIM listed.

[apatel21] 31/1/2008 13:28

nlm1 - i think you'll find theres normally a delayed response (in staff recruitment) to worsening economic crises - apart from resources the situation is dire. I expect the recruitment freezes to really come in to play in a big way after April. As i said MPI is actually a better investment because of its international diversification.

Recruitment firms are highly operationally geared a bit like estate agents. When things grind to a halt expect that profit to be wiped out in no time at all.

[nlm1] 31/1/2008 12:48

Well I work in recruitment and I can tell you that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff. Companies are still hiring. I can detect a bit of a downturn but nothing catastrophic. I was actually at OPD when the dot com bubble burst in 2001 and OPD were heavily influenced by technology clients, that's why revenues were hit so hard. I don't envisage anything like that happening again and whilst there will be a slow down, the market (as ever) is over reacting.

It's cheap by anyone's standards. According to my maths, current pe of about 3. Even if profits halve to 7 million - that's still a pe of about 7. Just sit tight, buy as much as you can now and wait 4 years.

[g8ta] 31/1/2008 12:46

Market cap now just over 2x estimated pretax for the year. No debt at interims. Where's the trading statement? I'm expecting an mbo or other bid and an investor shafting.

[williebiz] 31/1/2008 11:30

115p does indeed look a good target

[apatel21] 31/1/2008 11:24

How low can this one go ? I thought we might see 150p if the IMP bid didn't come off but it looks like the market wants to punish even more. I think we may see 115p.