Opd Share Discussion Threads

[andyprice5569] 23/12/2007 17:03

"nigelpm - 4 Dec'07 - 00:12 - 132 of 161


looks like it finished flat - it's not a short term play for me at all."


does not compute with


"nigelpm - 21 Dec'07 - 16:16 - 156 of 161

....12% in a couple of weeks is always worth taking."


Regs, Andy

[andyprice5569] 23/12/2007 16:58

"FWIW, I did sell at 235p."

lol, as not noted at the time - lmao

methinks you are showing a loss on both IMP and OPD now ;-)

Regs, Andy

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 16:47

Well you seem to want to post details of your trades and your strategy - so i thought it was up for discussion ; )

Not really but I admit I do post when I'm buying! ;-)

I have no target on the buy price but another 5-10% off and I'll be tempted in again.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 16:42

Well you seem to want to post details of your trades and your strategy - so i thought it was up for discussion ; )

Whats you target buy price ?

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 16:38

Let's not discuss my strategy! It's the OPD board!

Anyhow, an interesting auction. Someone placed 200k on the bid at only got 30k filled at 199p.

clearly due to falling out of the FTSE small cap.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 16:34

ok your strategy seems to be short term but if it goes wrong you were allways in it for the long haul ; )

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 16:16

apatel21 - If I needed to be. 12% in a couple of weeks is always worth taking.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 16:15

nigel - i thought you were in them for the long term?

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 16:10

It's leaving the FTSE Smallcap. Will be back up again next week,

FWIW, I did sell at 235p. Will be back in at this rate though.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 16:03

They'll have to offer even more shares in OPD every time their share price tanks ;)

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 16:01

nigel - OPD below 2.00 again - i hope you sold in the recent spike up. If it falls to 150p OPD could become a target itself.

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 12:36

dean - and get it bought back by the investment company ;-)

[deanroberthunt] 21/12/2007 12:34

they could start short selling HYDG stock to drive the share price down......

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 12:23

yes they are saying don't accept the 110p from HYDG - because there still interested.

They realise they need to come back with a better offer to succeed but HYDG have caught them on the back foot and so they need to go away and see what they can come up with.

Maybe the OPD directors are being advised by a bunch of plums and they should change them?

[deanroberthunt] 21/12/2007 12:09

basically saying don't accept 110p/share accept our 86p/share.....?what, d'ya think we're stupid!!!

if you want it OPD make a better offer or sod off.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 12:04

OPD have just released a statement saying they have noted the HYDG offer. Were they asleep or something?

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 12:02

rather than speculation i'd like to call it an educated guess : )

Your statement:

If OPD now come back at 125p with a large cash chunk it's likely to succeed in current conditions and they'll have picked IMP up cheaply. Simple as that.

Now that is speculation ; ) Where are OPD going to get the cash from? They have been outmanouvered by the HYDG board - accept it that they blew it ;>

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 11:25

What you have to consider in all this is the price action of the OPD share price - since its been battered its effectively costing OPD shareholders 30% more to just match their 1st offer in absolute price. IMHO if they had offered 130p-140p HYDG might not have considered offering. This would also have represented a nice premium to the then prevailing share price.
OPD share price would also have stayed firmer as the market would have rated the deal as a good one and one liklely to SUCCEED.


i.e. pure speculation on your part.

You cannot say with any confidence that OPD's share price has fallen because of the reasons you state above.

If OPD now come back at 125p with a large cash chunk it's likely to succeed in current conditions and they'll have picked IMP up cheaply. Simple as that.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 11:22

No they didn't - that was the MBO bid @ 210p

Things have moved on since OPD first became interested in IMP. You may want to see the share price of Michael Page and any other recruiter over the time since they became interested in July. ALL recruiters have been revalued down because of the change in economic outlook. It would no longer be a bargain if they paid more than 140p IMHO. 150p is probably about fair price.

What you have to consider in all this is the price action of the OPD share price - since its been battered its effectively costing OPD shareholders 30% more to just match their 1st offer in absolute price. IMHO if they had offered 130p-140p HYDG might not have considered offering. This would also have represented a nice premium to the then prevailing share price.
OPD share price would also have stayed firmer as the market would have rated the deal as a good one and one liklely to SUCCEED.

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 11:05

-since OPD's offer is only worth 85p @ the moment they would need to increase it by 47%. I'm not sure they will look clever paying 47% more than their opening bid?

Errmm. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't OPD initially bid 210p/245p - getting IMP at a fraction of that price is great business in my book.

Clearly I'd expect there to be some room for manoeuvre in HYDG's offer but I think the IMP/OPD fit would be better strategically so there's more reason for OPD to offer more than HYDG. We'll see..

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 11:01

Nigel -since OPD's offer is only worth 85p @ the moment they would need to increase it by 47%. I'm not sure they will look clever paying 47% more than their opening bid? I'm also not sure whether 125p will succeed unless their is a very large cash component. There is always the possibility that HYDG could counter any new OPD offer : )

The HYDG directors must be laughing as OPD's crass handling of the situation which has almost landed IMP in to their hands @ a very nice price.

[nigelpm] 21/12/2007 08:18

The OPD management have plyed a really bad hand in the takeover - i hope for your sake as shareholders their skills @ running the business in what looks to be very challenging market going forward is much better.

The jury is still out.

They could still offer 125p for IMP with some cash backing and their management will be looking very clever IMHO.

[apatel21] 21/12/2007 07:40

Ian

The profits warning relates to IMP's search & selection business which is being sold and is not the bit OPD are after.

i agree that it would be disastrous to overbid. However, OPD bought shares in the market in IMP @ close to £2 - i believe then made noises about making an offer @ about 245p in shares. It was therefore prepared to twice the price only 3 months before it eventually bid with the low ball offer. Has so much value been destroyed in that time - i don't think so?

I think theres been deals going on in the background between Hamilton and the OPD Directors to take the bits of businesses they were interested on the cheap. What OPD did not bargain for was the change in ownership between passive holders and activists and an alternative bidder appearing.

To conclude, i think OPD could have offered up to 150p (with an initial bid in the 130p region) for IMP without overpaying. It would still have represented a great deal both in terms of strategic fit/low price paid/potential cost savings - show me another firm available offering a similar strategic fit @ the same price. I believe part of the reason that the OPD price has been trashed is the market realisation that the takeover would fail. OPD have to increase their offer by 50% to offer 130p instead of 20% when the bid was 1st made.

The OPD management have plyed a really bad hand in the takeover - i hope for your sake as shareholders their skills @ running the business in what looks to be very challenging market going forward is much better.