Opd Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 03/10/2007 10:54

Looks the weakness here might also be related to OPD coming back to have a look at IMP once again.

[jeffian] 29/9/2007 15:14

Or, nigel, you could look at Michael Page (MPI) - similar business model on a PER over 21 ('though falling fast now!).

Certainly, any company which trades at above market average (say, 14-15 PER) has to have a strong case for sustainable high growth in earnings, but below 10 PER is getting into no-growth territory and 5X implies a bit of a basket-case (or, at least, that a significant drop in earnings is anticipated). If it carries on like this, the employment market is telling us we are headed for recession, whatever the Chancellor might say. Or they've got it wrong and the shares are cheap.

Regards, Ian

[nigelpm] 27/9/2007 14:54

Chaps look at Imprint - similar business model but that's down on a PER of 5. You ain't seen nothing yet here IMHO.

[jeffian] 23/9/2007 23:41

....and it didn't!

8-(

WTF is going on here?

[jeffian] 21/9/2007 22:56

It looks that way, Matt, but that would be a sub-8 PER. What is going on here? Either there is something we don't know or the market is getting this horribly wrong. Until I see a reason for such a low multiple I'm inclined to back my instincts and hang on/add, but this doesn't mean it'll go my way.

Regards, Ian

[matt] 21/9/2007 20:01

Still getting marked down on small volume. 300p on tha cards or lower?

[jeffian] 13/9/2007 10:35

I understand what you are saying, crita1, but I'm not sure it's completely right. When people talk of recruiters being a 'geared play on the market', I think it is more in macro-economic terms (i.e. that they do well in the boom times and struggle in recession) rather than that they are geared to make a greater profit margin at corporate level in a strong market. They are such a 'people business' that a substantial part of their overhead is always going to be in staff costs and those are likely to rise at least in line with NFI (partly because each recruiter can only handle a finite number of cases and partly because they will be incentivised by bonuses based on performance). Thus, I would expect to see overheads rise in line with NFI rather than stand still and produce a greater profit margin. However, as you rightly say, in this case the increase in overheads is running ahead of growth in NFI. In the 2006 accounts, they did say that they had made a "significant investment in additional staff" at Odgers and, given the time lag between fee-earners being recruited and the receipt of commission income, I hope this is what we are seeing in the H1/07 accounts. If so, this should start to unwind during the second half and show in the full year accounts in the form of improved margins. If it doesn't, then you may have a point!

Regards, Ian

[crita1] 12/9/2007 22:35

Has no one noticed that NFI has gone up by significantly more in percentage terms than net profit. It should be the other way around, recruiters are geared. The accounts explain that this is because overheads have gone up by £8m mostly due to the cost of additional employees at Odgers. NFI has only gone up by £9m for the Group and £6.5m for Odgers,so what value are these extra Odgers people doing. Expensive toilet cleaners or what?

OPD are notoriously bad at conveying information however if they don't explain this then I think people will think they are hiding something. I think they are being economical with the facts.

[strelna] 12/9/2007 20:10

I can see no reason for the fall - other than the major consideration of recession. Taking that into account, the shares still look good value. However, I am lost to explain the drop after good results and a confident prediction for the year.

[jeffian] 12/9/2007 10:11

It certainly is odd. Assuming we are heading for eps of 36/37p for the year, that is indeed around 10 PER. Not only is this significantly below its peer group but also below the market average whilst showing strong, if not spectacular, growth of 14% in eps. Unless we are being given a signal that all is not as they are telling us, this has to be re-rated at some stage, surely?

Regards, Ian

[matt] 11/9/2007 19:46

Struggling to understand it too. Must be on a PE of around 10 for this year.

[weemonkey] 11/9/2007 19:14

finding it hard to fathom why I should not buy this company.

results looked satisfactory and the company seems to be on a very undemanding rating.

as they are mainly in the business of recruiting senior execs I would have thought that this business was quite recession proof

the sector i know is out of fashion - but really this just seems stupid anyone any ideas or thoughts as to what is causing this to continue to sink?

are there any skeletons in the closet?

answers a on a postcard please

[matt] 11/9/2007 07:15

INTERIM RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT


11 September 2007



OPD Group plc, the international recruitment services group, announces its
interim results for the six months to 30 June, 2007.


*Net Fee Income increased by 24% to #45.3 million
*Pre tax profits increased by 17% to #6.9 million
*Earnings per share increased by 14% to 17.7p



Francesca Robinson, Chief Executive Officer of OPD Group plc, said:

"We are pleased to report that the group continues to make excellent progress
and we are confident of good results for the full year."

[jeffian] 20/8/2007 10:08

Fantastic results from Michael Page today - PBT and EPS up over 50% and divi up 33% plus comments that there is organic growth of 25% in all their markets and "numerous opportunities for further expansion in both our existing and new businesses in the second half of this year and beyond". One day, the market will cotton on that OPD is extremely cheap at these levels and we will get our reward!

Regards, Ian

[sludgesurfer] 07/8/2007 15:19

Albert,

I agree, the price was cheap and you raise a valid point regarding why OPD haven't issued their own RNS. Personally, I don't like holding shares in companies that buy others as a rule. Perhaps it's me that's daft but its not helped me much in the past.


Sludgie

[ammons] 05/8/2007 23:07

Hi sludgesurfer.

Why was buying Imprint such a "daft idea" as you have called it?? Imprint does appear to be cheap - very cheap - and buying it, at the right price, would make sense. It certainly isn't "daft" unless the price being paid is too high. If OPD has broken off all discussions as stated in Imprint's RNS, why has OPD not issued its own RNS as well? Both companies issued separate statements when they entered into talks so why has the same not occured in order to confirm that talks have ended?

Any thoughts anyone?

Albert.

[sludgesurfer] 02/8/2007 12:10

Good to see they've given up on that daft idea. Thinking about joining you Jeffian, sooo cheap on fundamentals right now. If I don't, I know I'll regret it when we're sitting at 460p again in a couple of weeks.

[jeffian] 01/8/2007 13:31

I think that's right, crita1; I could well be 'trying to catch a falling knife', but I still think they are cheap on fundamentals and should come back in better market conditions. It's funny how certain stocks go in and out of 'fashion', isn't it? I used to hold these as PSD and they went up to nearly £13 in 1999/2000 on a stratospheric multiple without explanation before slumping in the post 'Year 2000' turndown. Now the market seems to hate 'em however good the figures they produce. It was the same with Enterprise Inns, which used to trade on a sub-10 PER for years despite annualised profit growth in excess of 30% pa for years, and now the market loves them to bits. Similarly, Greggs the bakers which continue to trade on a high PER despite a few setbacks to trading in the last couple of years. Anyway, my philosophy is 'buy cheap and hold on until the market comes round to your way of thinking'!

Regards, Ian

[crita1] 01/8/2007 13:14

I think you are right but they could go further down,someone is forcing these down for a reason.

Regards

[jeffian] 01/8/2007 12:08

I couldn't resist. At this level, I just bought some more. Projected current year PER just over 10x, trading +22% year-to-date, cash in the bank, further earnings-enhancing acquisitions in the pipeline. I don't care what the market thinks; I think it's cheap!

Regards, Ian

[nlm1] 18/7/2007 19:25

oh christ, another merger. I'm outta these.

[markralph] 22/6/2007 16:06

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Imprint PLC said OPD Group has sought to arrange "exploratory discussions" that may or may not lead to an offer being made.

Earlier in the day, OPD Group acquired 5.27 stake in the Imprint, a UK-based international recruitment group, via its subsidiary PSD Ltd.


[e-mail]

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makes sense?!?!?

[mikehardman] 22/6/2007 15:54

OPD, IMP - anyone in these, check out


(RNS out for just IMP)

[jeffian] 18/5/2007 11:15

I agree with the IC article and disagree absolutely with nickcduk when he says that this is "no longer the screaming buy it was at 400p. This rise feels like its too much too soon." On fundamentals, it is still cheap. Employment agencies lag the market, so they are slow to reflect the recovery and slow to reflect any downturn in the economy which, as it is still going gangbusters, means that they are going to produce stonking figures for both the current year and probably next, whatever happens. The management of OPD are one of the highest-regarded teams in the business and I don't understand why the price is so low-rated at the moment. Nickcduc might be right about short-term technical chart movement for reasons I don't understand, but I'm sure this has further to go.

Regards, Ian

[tartan_penguin2] 18/5/2007 09:59

thanks for posting gold. I was contemplating selling but I may now hang on for trading update and see what happens.