Osb Share Discussion Threads

[apple53] 08/5/2024 10:15

yes "Broadly flat to 2023", and also "on track to meet full year guidance".
Underlying reported NIM was 2.51% and, from the full year prelims, "The underlying net interest margin is expected to be broadly flat to the 2023 underlying NIM of 251bps".

So not sure where the 2.6% figure comes from.
However, I agree that 2.6% could be closer to the outcome.

Re. consensus I am using marketscreener, and indeed that means more upside. I think analysts may have been building in higher 'impairments', perhaps forgetting that a chunk of the provision charge is ex-ante ie based on new loans written, so lower volumes shrinks that part of the provision charge.

[flyfisher] 08/5/2024 09:55

apple53, From memory, at the analysts presentation several questions were asked on 2024 nim, guidance was around 2.51%. They now report new business at attractive margins and indicate nim flat to 2023, so around 2.60%. Also c/i flat to 2023 allays concern over ongoing cost inflation.

As they had £3.95 tfsme to repay this year, they have chose to compete in the deposit and bond market for replacement funds, rather than shrinking the loan book. They seem to be progressing ok on this, perhaps when tfsme is repaid they will be less competetive in the deposit market and nim will improve.

Consensus that i see is 84p for 2024.

[jonnybig] 08/5/2024 08:58

Very good points there, apple. On reflection today's jump seems to contradict previous share price reactions.

spud

[apple53] 08/5/2024 08:49

Strange to me. The update confirms the guidance which had originally sent the stock to 330p pre-div (on a morning I couldn't trade - aaaggghhh).
And to be fair it was a significant profit warning, just that it only pushed the PE from below 4 to below 5 (on, say, 2025), which was immediately compensated for by the price fall. I did manage to buy some more below £4 before div.
It seems a bit 'wet finger in the air' to say that the margin and cost income would be flat on 2023, given that 2023 was hit by an entirely arbitrary expense for mortgage early repayments, so I had thought they had erred on the side of caution, and we would look for upgrades to the guidance as the year progressed. So the price jump on a mere confirmation this morning surprises me, but what do I know about sentiment?!

Arguable positives include: no FURTHER bad news, significant deposit growth (to repay subsidised loans), and only a small further increase in impairments. On loans, 1% growth is much lower than history, but then you could say any growth is positive in this rate environment.

What I was reasonably sure about on the upside was that analysts' downgrades took the eps down too low. This year £1 should still be achievable (consensus 88-89p), for example.

On corporate activity, the Virgin Money multiple would mean above £7, as I've mentioned before, although still way too cheap. It is especially interesting that Sabadell turned down a multiple another 30-40% higher, with TSB being partly blamed as being undervalued by BBVA.

Right now it's hard to see it returning to below £4, but I kinda hope so, as I need to load up again.

STB is now a lot cheaper (as big a gap as I can remember on consensus), but sooooo much smaller and miles away from the Virgin/Sabadell read across.

[jonnybig] 08/5/2024 08:12

Nice update and with over 30 million quids worth of shares still to buy back in a tight stock, I'm very confident this could climb back over a fiver in the next few weeks

spud

[apple53] 03/5/2024 10:52

thanks Spud re. buyback calc.
director sales by second rank management, not large, but larger than recent vestings. Not positive at the margin

[orchestralis] 03/5/2024 10:28

What do directors know!

[jonnybig] 03/5/2024 10:01

Don't like the recent director sells

spud

[jonnybig] 26/4/2024 08:12

Approx 3.5 million shares bought back so far, costing less than £14 million so should be about £36 million of the buyback still left

spud

[apple53] 25/4/2024 09:30

Thanks PJ.

Anyone have a sense of how much share buyback potential remains in this programme?

[pj84] 24/4/2024 20:58

Columbia’s Cane backs OSB after profit warning

A profit warning from buy-to-let lender OSB Group (OSB) has impacted the shares but Columbia Threadneedle’s Julian Cane says the valuation is ‘extraordinarily low’.

Cane holds the Citywire Elite Companies plus-rated bank in his CT UK Capital & Income (CTUK) investment trust, where it makes up 4.7% of the £366m portfolio.

OSB reported results for 2023 that were a ‘little ahead of most forecasts’ but it also issued a profit warning as ‘current trading margins’ are lower than expected. This caused a sharp fall in the share price.

‘For March as a whole, OSB’s share price fell more than 9%.,’ said Cane. ‘While very disappointing, it is worth highlighting that even on these lower estimates, OSB is still expected to generate an attractive return on equity and its valuation appears extraordinarily low.’

The shares rose 1.9% to 393p on Tuesday, but are down 21% over the last 12 months.

[davius] 10/4/2024 17:48

6th highest riser in the FTSE All-Share index today.

[its the oxman] 10/4/2024 15:21

Looks set to pop above 400p again. And still very cheap and a possible bid target.

[davius] 10/4/2024 14:39

One of only three in my portfolio that didn't take a caning when the US inflation figure missed the expected number by a staggering 0.1%.

OSB and CBG are my standout performers today.

[orchestralis] 10/4/2024 12:28

Looking stronger

[jonnybig] 10/4/2024 07:22

Strange. The entire share buyback yesterday was carried out in the last 10 minutes, obviously explaining the jump. Haven't seen that before.

spud

[jonnybig] 04/4/2024 08:41

Great thing about buybacks is that all those very cheap exdiv trading shares can be hoovered up lovely jubbly

spud

[jonnybig] 03/4/2024 15:18

Welcome rise seeing it's gonna get slammed by 20p tomoz

spud

[clive7878] 02/4/2024 16:29

Ex-divi - 4th April

[william127] 30/3/2024 06:34

Last mention IC was Hold same as the last time for what that is worth.

[clive7878] 29/3/2024 21:27

Mentioned in I.C. as a buy.

[drradcliffe] 19/3/2024 14:18

4th April 24

21.8p divi payment on 14th May