Osb Share Discussion Threads

[thebutler] 03/11/2023 12:51

Nice to see a director buying 25,000 shares. All looking good here.

[flyfisher] 03/11/2023 09:38

Loan book growth of 3% over the quarter, against a declining quarter for property values, suggests that the products are currently attractive.

They had £4.2bn of TFSME debt to repay over the next 2 years. Attracting new retail deposits has allowed them to make a start on this, and at sub sonia..

OSB will need to access the bond market in 2024, bond rates moderated yesterday after the BOE kept base rate stable, which is a help.

[parob] 03/11/2023 08:54

Exactly. There's resistance at 400p but hopefully it powers through this time as markets turn bullish; interest rates will come down down at some point, helping stocks to recover. Market is forward looking.

[eigthwonder] 03/11/2023 08:50

thing is - if they hold the dividend this is cheap quality in a cheap sector. Solid buy even after the rebound

[parob] 03/11/2023 08:22

Think this is helpingBerenberg RAISES OSB Group price target to 720p. BUY

[brucie5] 02/11/2023 17:06

Still somewhat at a loss but happy to have accumulated. This seems well run and able to weather the storm.

[thebutler] 02/11/2023 13:56

I think this rise has also been helped by the buy back, taking out a ton of shares from the Market so buyers having to scramble for shares. Lovely jubbly!

[flyfisher] 02/11/2023 09:55

Well timed catabrit.

[blackhorse23] 02/11/2023 08:16

Switched to GATC , best dividend yield in LSE

[thebutler] 02/11/2023 08:14

Very good update. Hopefully the start of a recovery to former highs.

[catabrit] 26/10/2023 15:08

Nibbled at this yesterday.

[broomrigg] 13/10/2023 10:41

......thebutler opens his mouth and the collapse resumes. His first advice to you all was OSB are "a steal" at 5 quid, then when the shares DROP 2 QUID he says "looking very good here". You just couldn't make it up.....what an utterly useless clown.

[thebutler] 12/10/2023 11:49

Looking very good here. Confident it's bottomed out. Took a few grand at 298p which seems to be paying off.

[broomrigg] 03/10/2023 16:44

thebutler forgot to include he thought this was a bargain ("a steal") at 500p.What a thick useless bellend.Lollllllllll

[apple53] 03/10/2023 14:07

I wonder if there is an element of anticipation of end of buybacks. I wonder if they can find some more cash, NB this from half-year statement

"The Board is confident that the Group’s strategy and proven capital generation capability can support both strong net loan book growth and further capital returns to shareholders."

3x forward earnings.
24 and 25 forecasts have NOT been cut, despite a) 23 profit warning, b) knock-on effect of the type of issue that caused profit warning, ie there should be lower revenue recognition on new mortgages, c) increase in funding costs, etc.
So either analysts are dopey and we have some cuts to come (which are just a teensy bit priced in), or.....

In any event it would take a massive earnings hit to justify £3.

What it comes down to is that there is no marginal buyer. Too small for institutions, and retail investors may not understand the impact of an extremely low cost income ratio (ie much less bottom line impact from bad new). Charter Court deal was prescient I guess otherwise they would be even further from the radar screen.

Well I've just increased my position by almost 50%, and so I've repurchased more than I sold between 4.6 and 5.6. Extracted the cash from ICGT, which has recovered modestly. Admittedly ICGT remains very cheap (30%+ discount), but OSB is at a 50-70% discount to 'fair value', and the PE investment trusts seem to be oscillating between 30 and 45% discounts at the moment. Remarkably, I sold ICGT at a profit.

I suppose OSB could get taken private.
Can anyone make a guess for a takeover?

[thebutler] 03/10/2023 13:35

God only knows.

I thought it was a bargain at 400p

Then I thought it was a bargain at 380p

Then I thought it was a bargain at 360p

Then I thought it was a bargain at 340p

Then I thought it was a bargain at 320p

Then ..........

[its the oxman] 03/10/2023 11:30

Is this a bargain at almost 300p now?

[flyfisher] 17/9/2023 19:57

At the presentation they guided on nim for 2023, but did not guide for 2024.
Also they have significant maturing debt to refinance shortly and observed that whilst it was issued at a discount to sonia, replacement funding will be at a premium and sonia has risen sharply.

The buy in is due to complete shortly, i wonder where this will settle without it.

[pj84] 08/9/2023 18:11

Key stats
Market capitalisation £1,442m
Dividend yield 9.36%

OSB profit warning reaction may be ‘excessive’

Share price falls in buy-to-let lender OSB Group (OSB) could be ‘excessive’ if the bank can confine its profit hit to this year, says Columbia Threadneedle’s David Moss.

Moss holds the challenger bank in his £117m CT High Income (CHI) investment trust but said it had been a ‘key reason for the portfolio lagging the market’ in August following a profit warning.

‘The update described positive current trading for the company but did warn there would be a substantial hit to this year’s profit as a result of the rapid rise in interest rates,’ said Moss.

The bank highlighted the rapid interest rate rises, which have changed borrower behaviour.

‘The move away from floating towards fixed interest rates is less profitable for OSB, hence the profit warning,’ said Moss.

Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated OSB has indicated that the impact is likely to be around 30% of last year’s profits, or less than 10% of market capitalisation of the company pre-warning.

‘The loss should largely be restricted to this year, which, if true, would make the fall in the share price excessive,’ said Moss.

‘However, after an upset of this scale and nature, it would only be natural for investors to demand evidence of a successful recovery before reassessing and rerating the shares.’

OSB Group shares were trading at £3.22 on Thursday.

[brucie5] 08/9/2023 09:17

I hold these together with Stb. The latter has a more bullish chart, or should that be, less bearish..? But I haven't heard any negative analysis of either management so I continue to assume all is as stated and market is simply getting these wrong, along with so much else atm.

[essentialinvestor] 07/9/2023 13:08

Would hope they are making the right call buying back such significant amounts of their equity.


SP may indicate the market expects further challenges ahead?.