One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[harrogate] 22/2/2013 08:00

As noted above the fully diluted EPS forecast was 0.7p actual was 0.62p so that is a miss for me. Even if they are inline I would have thought we should be beating numbers if we want the rating to go up. At about 7 times it looks right to me just where it is for now that is all I am saying.

[stegrego] 22/2/2013 07:51

Results look slightly ahead of forecast to me, so everything as expected.

Re AIM, it has been proven several times now with DOTD, IDEA etc that a move to AIM really perks up interest and the share price.

Hardly anyone bothers with PLUS or whatever it's called now, as its a pain to deal, phone only, bigger costs, hard to monitor shareprice etc etc.

[harrogate] 22/2/2013 07:34

First look I am a bit disappointed.. H2 sales flat v H1 and EPS down from H1 to H2.
That might be seasonal with Xmas in H1 ( does anyone know if this is a pattern for us? ) Until we see what 2013 and 2014 look like these look high enough at the moment. Keen to hear other views on this

[capt bligh] 05/2/2013 13:54

H I have been looking at the share register over the last few months and the liquidity that allowed you to buy (and me too)in reasonable quantity is due to a significant fund holding that is now virtually depleted the share register shows virtually no sales other than from this source. In other words our move to aim is going to coincide with a situation where there are very few shares available to be bought. It should be quite mobile, but who knows we might languish like PHSC another old Ofex high flyer ( by the way now doing quite well at last)... lets hope more like DOT digi.

[harrogate] 05/2/2013 13:38

The issue we are confusing is liquidity. I have bought 600,000 + shares over the last year or two here and I see decent sized trades almost every day with OMIP. Why would a move to AIM with the same number of shares and the same holders change that. I have seen many many AIM shares where liquidity is very poor. There are no institutional buyers of micro cap shares on AIM so all it will do is increase the demand by a few individuals who donlt like ISDX.

[microscope] 05/2/2013 11:57

You miss the point Brian in my view. The illiquidity of ISDX means that fair value is much harder to achieve.

For what it's worth, a growth company that's profitable with cash in the bank, and something many forget (often conveniently) when saying others on a pe of 6,9,12 whatever, No Debt, my current fair value falls pretty much in the middle of the 2.5p to 12p range, ie i think we would be about 7p on a more liquid market.

However I am a realist, so i understand that on ISDX that valuation is unlikely to be achieved because there are not enough people even aware the company exists, who might well be buyers, and therefore 5-6p in the meantime would make some sort of sense. 4.3p on the metrics we have and as Capt Bligh rightly points out, Zulu "compliant", as the company is, leaves plenty upside.

When you look at loss making oil stocks on AIM that have never produced a drop, it puts into perspective how difficult fair valuations are to assess.

[briangeeee] 05/2/2013 11:16

cb, yes perhaps, but I certainly wasn't suggesting relentless RNSing.

[capt bligh] 05/2/2013 10:45

I think you are being a little unfair to them in your second paragraph, for a plus company they have put out a rather good presentation ( for their size) and have been unceasing communicators thru all sorts of media. relentless RNSing.. much better than many aim companies IMV. I suspect they are now keeping their powder dry for the aim move. There has also been a stock overhang just about cleared now. This company is worth now only very slightly more than it was several years ago, dispite significant progress, due to share buy back.



It also fills every criteria for a so called Zulu... see the thread and pure zulu's are very rare.

I agree with you though that there probably wont be a huge jump in share price on listing.

[briangeeee] 05/2/2013 10:11

Yes, but I don't think whether it is listed on AIM or Plus really makes too much of a difference. What sets the price is the level at which people on balance think the company is good value. Being on AIM opens it to a wider range of investors, but that in itself doesn't change the likely consensus view of what's fair value.

At the moment the company doesn't present itself to investors, and doesn't convince them that its a good investment, and neither does its broker. Most of us obviously feel it is, but what will change the valuation is improving earnings, and demonstrating the company is a good prospect for the future, with a vision that leads to ongoing and consistent earnings generation. It's probably a little easier to do this once on AIM, but it's not a cure-all.

Moving the listing to AIM provides a point of focus and a something around which valuation discussions can be centred. Is that worth the £250k+ you suggest? Well perhaps. I'm not really either for or against the move, and in terms of short term share price, it's all up for grabs.

[m1shake] 05/2/2013 09:43

Hey Brian your share price for AIM at 4.3 is lower than it is today on ISDX

[briangeeee] 05/2/2013 09:11

harrogate, yes, I tried to give some thoughts on where the price would possibly be at the end of 2013 and 2014 on the basis that the move occurred in say May or June of this year.

On listing, mid year, well if we say profits come in as forecast at £306k, and it's still a small illiquid company that nobody's heard of, with an unusual style broker note and no convincing presentation, then a P/E of say 9 is probably right. With about 63.7m shares on a diluted basis, that equates to an share price of about 4.3p.

I'm not quite sure why the broker has them on a 28% tax rate for this year, but I imagine they have some good reason.

Of course that's a very simplistic valuation, and I'm sure the prospectus will spell the company financials out in sufficient detail for a better calculation. We really need to better understand the balance sheet in terms of cash, advances, quality of any intangibles, etc. I'm sure if they produce a new broker note, it will take all this into account. I also hope it will be of more standard form, as that's what people expect these days. Also, any fudges tend to arouse suspicion, so it should clear and conservative.

[harrogate] 05/2/2013 06:57

Brian ..I agree with but you are answering a different question to that asked. The question was what price would it be on the move to AIM not at end of 2013 with another full year of activity under our belts.

[briangeeee] 04/2/2013 22:12

M1shake, as far as I can see the whole of the 2.5p - 12p is possible by the end of 2013. I'm invested here because I perceive risk weighted upside.

If last year's results turn out to be weaker than expected; if the cash advance has been used to purchase and capitalise assets that can't readily be monetised; if excessive funds are spent on the AIM listing; if significant shares are issued at or below the current price; if more problems emerge in the world economy, 2.5p will be all too possible.

However, if there's minimal dilution; a good quality broker note, mini-prospectus, and presentation (better than the current one); visible growth without incurring non-working intangibles; and Michael Infante can deliver an assured and conservative presentation, then we could easily be at 12p by the end of this year.

If the vision and communication is good enough, along with competent execution, then 24p by the end of 2014 would be possible, as the share price will lift away from an earnings multiple to value on future blue sky potential. Not the sort of investment I'm normally comfortable with, but it's possible.

[harrogate] 04/2/2013 21:48

I hope I am wrong since I have a large holding in OMIP and I would love to say the 12p was a reasonable figure but I don't think it is. I have owned plenty of shares over the years on AIM that have cash in the bank, pay a dividend but have never been valued at 12 x earnings and the smaller the profit figure the lower the rating. Now if we were to raise some money and do a large deal that was earnings enhancing at the same time then it might be different. Good discussion though... and of course that is what makes a market ..different views of value!

[m1shake] 04/2/2013 20:30

so in other words in your opinion they should stay on ISDX as at 4.5 now x 55m + 2.4m
lets say they spend 250k to move market (maybe more) and they are worth £3.3m they are only gaining £600k in the move (less costs?)

lot of work for no gain should privatise i would say if your numbers are right! - someone call MI quick.......

[m1shake] 04/2/2013 20:23

if everything on AIM was debt free - cash resourced - yielding divis - with circa half mil in the bank and profitable maybe they would be on a multiple of 12! not forgetting the asset worth ?

[harrogate] 04/2/2013 19:39

If everything on AIM was valued at 12 times I would be feeling much richer!

If we take the 55m shares and a taxed profit of £700k in 2014 = £545k at say multiple of 8 = 8p and that is a 2014 multiple when we haven't seen 2012 yet. Based on that I would say 6p is high enough at the moment without anything else we don't know

[m1shake] 04/2/2013 19:16

i have a different view 2.5 to 12 is dismissible - its 4.5 on a trading platform that is dead!

the company is looking at 400k + PBT 2012 - maybe £500k + 2013 maybe £700k + 2014 average out at 5.5k over 3 years on a multiple of 12 (AIM after all) divided by 55m shares (if they don't dilute we are looking 12p!

discuss?

[briangeeee] 04/2/2013 11:17

It's quite a small company to list on AIM, so it could be quite variable, and depends mainly on:

a. Full year results.
b. A convincing strategy for monetising the video content, explaining the unusual choice of M&M, and not having overpaid for same.
c. Prior to the listing - successful marketing the company to funds & HNWIs, and convincing them why they should pay over the current share price for any new shares to be issued.
d. Following the listing - competent marketing of the company to private investors by management.

So, anywhere between 2.5p and 12p by the end of 2013!

[harrogate] 04/2/2013 11:04

We could do with having an updated broker note that takes account of the recent deals and also takes us out an extra year to be able to answer that question I think.

[meadow2] 04/2/2013 11:00

Providing there is no, or little, dilution by way of new shares issued, I would expect a doubling of the price within a year. I am also assuming that trading and profit figures remain on the current trend. I am a current holder. DYOR!

[m1shake] 04/2/2013 10:53

any ideas as to what the share price might be on AIM if they get there?

[capt bligh] 25/1/2013 17:19

500k sell? price not dropped.... this might mean only 330 left in rump... gents we are nearly there.

[capt bligh] 25/1/2013 17:19

500k sell? price not dropped.... this might mean only 330 left in rump... gents we are nearly there.

[nfs] 23/1/2013 03:22

VHF
You were most of the 100 so it's only fair
Thanks for your detailed analysis here