Ondo Insurtech Share Discussion Threads

[oapknob1] 10/12/2024 08:57

Maybe look at GENI if fda approval is granted for CardioIncode test and funding is resolved. ROCA test also being adopted by NHS and todays RNS. More than one product but FDA approval is the driver IF granted

[pdt] 10/12/2024 08:05

cyberbub - I have looked at lots of companies and nothing compares to the business model and potential of Ondo. It is also at the stage I like, just before profitability and after the last needed placing before profits. It is also approaching the market cap where institutions are interested in taking a stake. As discussed it will sadly be taken over within the next couple of years before the potential is fully realised.

I too have scars from STX! I am 90% invested in big boring established dividend payers now I am retired. Do you have anything worth looking at that is similar to Ondo?

[cyberbub] 09/12/2024 23:07

Thanks Russ, I'm aware of both of them, in fact I bear the scars on my back from STX!

[homebrewruss] 09/12/2024 20:21

STX might be a candidate for that if you can get comfortable with the majority ownership by AOP and them meeting their revenue targets for the next year.
Maybe APTA, just looking into that one now.

[cyberbub] 09/12/2024 17:46

Just out of interest, does anyone have any thoughts about any other company that's in a similar position to ONDO 3 months ago, done a placing which pushed the share price down, but has great prospects and might double or treble short term? Don't worry I'll DMOR before buying :-) ! Genuine question as I have some cash from sales elsewhere looking for a home. Thanks for any tips.Meanwhile onwards and upwards for Ondo in the coming days hopefully.

[cyberbub] 08/12/2024 13:22

Yes the vendor loan can be repaid at Ondo's option. So we're accruing a substantial interest rate at the moment, but once we can demonstrate positive cashflow (ie by Q3/Q4 next year) we should be able to get another loan at a much more reasonable rate eg. 6/7%, and pay off the vendor loan.

[oapknob1] 08/12/2024 13:06

The Loan Notes remain redeemable by Ondo at any time with 10 days' notice and are rescheduled as follows: · Loan Note term extended: New maturity date one year later on 31 March 2030· Principal repayments deferred: Commencing one year later on 31 March 2027 and then annually to 31 March 2030· Interest roll-up extended: Accruing an additional year to 31 March 2026· Interest rate maintained: At 12% until 31 March 2027 increasing to 14% thereafter. Ondo has committed to a minimum of 40% of the proceeds from any warrant exercises being used to repay the Loan Notes. As of 30 September 2024, and as at the current date, a total of 26.94m warrants remain outstanding, with a subscription value of up to approx. £6 million, as set out in the table below.

[cyberbub] 08/12/2024 11:23

As I recall the warrants (which will certainly all be exercised going forward) bring in £6.5m. So knocking off the 40% to repay the loan capital leaves Ondo with £4m receipts. They had £1.8m at the end of Sept makes £5.8m. The last results show admin expenses of about £5m p.a. So they have cash to last until Q3 2025 or so, excluding any contribution from gross profit.

But of course revenues are starting to ramp up significantly, and there will be an increasing number of high-margin revenues coming in from Leakbots which are moving into 'Year 2' operations.

It will be tight but I think they can make it. Or as mentioned, in the worst case a small final placing of £2m next summer should see them over the 'hump' and into sustainable and rapidly-growing profitability.

NAI DYOR

[cyberbub] 08/12/2024 09:44

I agree Tom, although I think cash will be tight for the next 6-9 months. But I think they should be OK with the warrants money, albeit a chunk of it goes to pay off the loan.

Even if they have to raise a very final say £2m next summer, at 40p-50p (hopefully higher) it's b*gger-all dilution. Then the big money starts rolling in...

NAI etc

[tom5boy] 08/12/2024 09:09

Cyberbub

Good post.

Craig has committed 40% of the funds received from execution of warrants
to be used to pay for the loan.
Add in the profit expected from H2 next
year and beyond I believe there will be
no need to make any further loan arrangements or issue of shares.

[cyberbub] 07/12/2024 21:31

Mr Market typically looks forward 12 months, they say. Breakeven say Q3, and by next Xmas if we're issuing 40k units per month, we should have 500k units installed overall. By mid 2026 we could be making a 'run rate' of 500k x $50 = $25m gross profit (using Dowgate's figures and allowing a bit of inflation). Say £10m-11m net post-tax? And growing exponentially so probably on a p/e of 25. Even if you assume 150m shares in issue due to the warrants, that's still a 150p share price...

We may even have a US factory under construction by then, to keep Trump happy...

Of course there is the outstanding high-interest loan, but as soon as breakeven has been hit, it should be easy to refinance at much lower rates.

I'm pretty sure there will be bigger fish starting to circle in H1 2025, assuming everything goes smoothly. The combination of patent protection, low rollout costs, low working capital needs, strong recurring revenue, and future opportunities for cross-selling, may seem irresistible.

Just my thoughts FWIW

GLA DYOR etc

[pdt] 07/12/2024 11:03

Had another look at the Presentation and written Q&A response.

Interesting comment on US pipeline - some insurers in top 10 and some in top 20. And they are "not months or years away from fruition" which implies news in weeks, perhaps this month or Jan 25.

This pipeline progress ties in with the 40,000 month production upgrade which they say will be fully ready from February 2025. That aligns neatly with signing one or two big insurers over the next few weeks.

Exciting times indeed.

[homebrewruss] 06/12/2024 21:05

ONDO has now provided some additional written answers to questions they couldn't get to in the Q&A tab here

[hazl] 06/12/2024 16:40

Well better than I expected after a day or two!

[tom5boy] 06/12/2024 14:03

Cyberbub

50% plus increase when one of the top 4 come
on board.

[cyberbub] 06/12/2024 13:44

PDT, we've certainly been led to expect a major new US client announcement at some time soon. State Farm or any of the top 3 coming on board would be an instant 25% on the SP, IMONAI

[mdchand] 06/12/2024 13:26

I think an institution has taken a position here but I would be surprised if profit taking doesnt kick especially as the share price is near an all time high.

[hazl] 05/12/2024 17:22

Thanks tom.

[tom5boy] 05/12/2024 17:14

Welcome on board hazl.

The journey has just begun.

[hazl] 05/12/2024 13:19

I am pleased to have found these.
Well done to those who recognised it earlier on.
This and OMI have had good run ups for a reason I think!

[chrysalis99] 05/12/2024 12:35

I'm hoping it's a US insurer mandating the use of Leakbot

[cyberbub] 05/12/2024 12:04

Nice 100k buy gone through

[hazl] 05/12/2024 09:37

US Market being strong helps the case I expect.

[homebrewruss] 05/12/2024 09:24

Thanks hazl, I like it.
It sounds like we have not really heard the main reason for the recent production capacity increase yet as they suggested in the presentation yesterday and that news is expected in the short term.
When/if that news arrives as expected it should more than underpin the current share price.

[hazl] 05/12/2024 08:29

The announcement was very upbeat.