Ondo Insurtech Share Discussion Threads

[homebrewruss] 20/12/2024 10:00

Hadn't you predicted the warrants would be keeping a lid on the price in the 20's?
There's lots to look forward to and the management have been delivering to date IMV.
It is a lot of options but it does align them with the success of the company and similarly helps in any bid situation.

[hamidahamida] 20/12/2024 08:01

wow 10 million more options still outstanding Plus 20 million or so outstanding warrants That's still some 20% dilution in the pipeline

[homebrewruss] 13/12/2024 14:33

Proactive new interview - end of year summary and looking ahead

[cyberbub] 12/12/2024 23:43

Since you ask Russ, been researching VEL this evening after today's RNS, think it could do well in the next couple of years although it hasn't got the USP (patents) and recurring revenue potential of ONDO. On the other hand it's only £12m cap and the CEO owns 10%, unlike here where CF only has 1% although he does have a good number of options too (along with a salary that I still think is high).

[homebrewruss] 12/12/2024 15:56

Yes of course. Would be interested to know what it's up against :)
I'm struggling to find a better option on the UK market but would like to find some others!

[cyberbub] 12/12/2024 14:05

I'm always monitoring and evaluating everything Russ, like any decent investor should do...

[homebrewruss] 12/12/2024 13:02

Cyber do you have any expectations yourself?
Are you evaluating this versus other potential investments over the same period?

[blah blah] 12/12/2024 12:56

Cyber, I was saying that you could argue that, based on a projection of what the company could develop into, today the share price should be 3x higher (i.e say 120p) and that over the next 12 months it should increase by 25% to around 150-160p, which is 4x today’s price. Does that answer your question?

[cyberbub] 12/12/2024 10:45

Blah blah you say "...25% higher or around 4x today's share price", can you explain a bit more?

[oapknob1] 12/12/2024 08:56

Ondo on X - Since #ONDO's IPO in March '22:? Customers TRIPLED ? Revenue up 5.5x ? Recurring revenue up 9.4x ? Addressable households under contract up 12x ? These metrics highlight strong market acceptance & a promising future for #LeakBotJust need confirmation of expansion by Nationwide and new US insurers coming on board.

[homebrewruss] 12/12/2024 08:12

That seems a reasonable way to value it.
Alternatively any possible end of year valuation could consider how many leakbots have been ordered.

Given the transparent pricing and sticky recurring revenues I think the market is prepared to consider any future orders (beyond the current level which should get it to breakeven) as booked revenue/profit as soon as they have been announced.
So for instance if there were 300,000 orders throughout 2025 I think you could value it on 300,000 x profit per Leakbot (in year 2) x forward p/e (20 ?)

This will obviously be a moving target based on orders received and as Blah blah says, the more news there is the more confident the market will come.
If they get an order from State Farm then I wouldn't be surprised to see the market do a read across from Ting which has deployed over 1m of their devices mainly through State Farm.

Unless the orders somehow dry up completely I don't see the price lower than the current price and as the company has suggested we will soon get news on why the company has expanded the production facilities.

[blah blah] 12/12/2024 07:33

Cyber, I see it like this. At this stage it’s all about projecting what the company could be worth in say 5 years time and discounting back. A very good rate of return on an equity would be 20-25% for a company with this risk profile, so in other words do i think in 5 years time it could be worth £150-200m (which is what the current market cap is telling us?). If so then next year the share price should be 20-25% higher as the plan plays out. Or do I think the value in 5 years could be substantially higher? The company has talked about being a billion pounds. That seems a bit of a stretch at the moment (although you can see how they get there). But if i assume half of that, I.e. £500m, then it should currently be about 3x today’s share price and in a year’s time 25% higher or around 4x today’s price.

The reality is that news flow that provides the potential to get it to £500m or even £1 billion value will be what drives the performance. In other words, keep the deals coming! As well as avoiding the need for dilution, where I think they are doing a remarkable job. Usually in a small growth company it is the need for growth capital that dilutes returns for shareholders.

[cyberbub] 12/12/2024 00:05

End of year idle question - what do people see as a likely SP/market cap progression during 2025? If we assume 150m shares in issue after all warrants are exercised, we're at £60m cap today, plus the Vendor Loan as debt.

[homebrewruss] 11/12/2024 20:54

Insurance nerds video
'Tony chats with Craig Foster, CEO, and Jim Strickland, GM North America at Ondo Insurtech. They are creating a world leader in claims prevention technology for home insurer, specifically water prevention. Their Leakbot detects leaks, and their network of local plumbers go out to fix the leaks before they become a large claim, all paid for by your insurer! The ROI of prevention is so good that it makes sense for the insurer to pay for the plumber.'

[cottoner] 11/12/2024 19:57

I see Ondo have now tweeted that Ting news.


Congratulations to ⁦
@whiskerlabs
⁩ as ⁦
@Nationwide
⁩ announce that #Ting has been expanded to Nationwide customers in 44 US States to
#PredictandPrevent household fires. #ONDO

[homebrewruss] 11/12/2024 18:06

Liberty Mutual (no. 5) and Erie (no. 20) in the top 20 US insurers also using Ting (as well as Nationwide and State Farm (no. 1)).

[idlejack] 11/12/2024 18:06

HB great find, thanks for posting

[pdt] 11/12/2024 18:02

Great spot homebrewruss! The article mentions how it both retains customers and has a positive return on investment. Leakbot will further enhance that. Hard to see how other insurers can compete effectively without having risk monitoring solutions.

[homebrewruss] 11/12/2024 16:51

Nationwide expanding Ting into 44 from 26 states. Shows the likely path for Leakbots

[homebrewruss] 11/12/2024 10:50

Dips are short lived at the moment 👍

[homebrewruss] 10/12/2024 23:00

Cyber, CPX may be another? Recent placing, new management buying shares, change of strategy, revenue increase., etc..

Back to ONDO now :)

[kiplig] 10/12/2024 14:38

I absolutely love ONDO. Piece by piece they are steadily bringing on new clients, every one of which adds additional VALIDATION and makes it easier for the next inurer to sign up. But Rome wasn't built in a day - let's have patience. At some point it becomes inevitable and we'll have complete transparency on future revenues which have the potential to support valuations many multiples of todays price.

[bollockks] 10/12/2024 10:59

Ciz
But have majority of shares here now in Ondo

[cyberbub] 10/12/2024 10:17

Thanks PDT and OAP. I'll take a look at GENI.

One I have on my list is CMET, it's maybe a bit risky compared to ONDO, but has a potential infection point coming up in the next 3-4 months if they can confirm their funding package. It's essentially at the bottom of the second hill in the Lassonde Curve. Another is FRG. DYOR of course! I don't have a position in either of them yet BTW.

Sorry everyone else for the off-topic, always helpful to just swap friendly tips occasionally :-)