Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[longshanks] 28/4/2012 07:18

15% rise and only two posts all day - quality....

Looks like there were some filled bids at 16p. Not too many at that price, mind so the price could hold at this level for a while. We may get a slight pull back but equally if I have totally misinterpreted the signs, it could continue its drive; esp. if some clever people have applied their slide rules and come up with the same opinion as me (that the potential rewards make the current price a great bet).

I guess the buy recommendation in the LES may have helped, MONIS. Did they make any comment or just give the recommendation on what Seymour Pierce had reiterated?

[monis] 27/4/2012 14:20

This company had a buy recommendation in the London Evening Standard last night.

[longshanks] 27/4/2012 09:42

Strength continuing: started off bidding 13.35p but quickly raised to bidding above the mid price at 13.88p for 100K - whilst only offering 1500 online at the offer (14p).

Looks like share price or another broker have some decent orders they are trying to fill and willing to do so at a fair premium.

No sellers? WOW.

Edit - 11:34: Now bidding 15p for 75K and still only 1500 available at the offer (15.5p). Looks like one block trade has been filled at 16p - could be more to come.

I really didn't expect such a rapid revaluation by the market. Nice to have such a wedge under these circumstances - though the substantial paper profit I am now seeing could all evaporate as quick as it has been gained given we are now moving into "overbought" territory. I wonder how much higher this will go before a trace back is forced.

[longshanks] 26/4/2012 15:49

Apologies - but I suspect I am behind most of the recent rise with my large scale buying sub 12p and refusal to sell on the pick-up in price.

I am more or less done for now: in a paper profit and this now comfortably above the 200d m.a. I have a big enough holding to wait and see a sustained trend before buying more.

Next confirmation signal for me will be the imminent cross over of the 30d m.a. over a rising 50d m.a. (currently been tracking for the last week). However I will wait for the golden cross (50d m.a. crossing the 200d m.a.) before buying any more.

I can't see the price rising too strongly from here. We have some volume but as yet we haven't really given the stale bulls above 14p the chance to exit. If sentiment is maintained and sellers don't emerge we could see a continuation of the trend started in Sep/Oct last year towards 20p but I don't see that as being a smooth rise so I suspect you will have plenty of opportunity to buy at a good price.

Edit: really strong price action ahead of the close with the MMs bidding for 100K at a price above the mid at 13.51p and only offering 1500 at 14p. Interesting to see how this performs tomorrow and whether any sellers come forward after digesting today's price increase.

[leedslad001] 26/4/2012 14:51

don't want it going up too quick i want some more!!Funds in may lol

[longshanks] 26/4/2012 07:00

Thanks for that PHILO124. share price being house broker are I guess expected to be a bit biassed - but it is encouraging to see a strong buy reiteration.

Wonder why their price target has dropped from 26p to 25p: could just be a simple mistake - or rounding factor from their model. However I suspect this is still based on a simple projection for performance through to 2013 rather than the longer term impact of the growth strategy.

[philo124] 25/4/2012 12:44

Seymour Pierce 25p target reiteration today

[longshanks] 19/4/2012 09:28

...inched over the 200d m.a. with the move today. This is one of the prime indicators I look out for in these low volume stocks as it is one of the best I've found for a change in investment sentiment.

It isn't foolproof though and it will be interesting to see if the break holds this time - we have crossed the line twice in the last year - only for the "promise" to have rapidly evaporated with new waves of selling.

I'm in profit now - whoo hoo - but there is so much more due to come. There are probably still sellers around and a few like me who can now take profits - but I don't believe we have too many given the volumes over the last 5 months and the longer term returns yet to be realised.

Edit: limits are currently very healthy: If I wanted I could sell the entire 225K shares I hold in one online account in a single transaction at 12p whilst the maximum limit on the offer is 50K.

Looks to me like we have background orders being worked and we can expect this rally to hold if sellers don't emerge soon.

[leedslad001] 18/4/2012 08:18

Morning all.
Agree with longshanks lots to look forward to here. I will also keep buying over the next year when funds come available. Happy to see it stay around 12p for a bit lol

[saucepan] 17/4/2012 23:08

Thanks for those thoughts, longshanks; appreciated.

[longshanks] 17/4/2012 20:34

Good point for you to start monitoring Saucepan.

Price is still struggling to break out of its downward trend - currently flirting with the 200d m.a. - and with some selling pressure at 12p and above from the placing last year this could hold water for some time yet before we see any sustained rally.

IMO things won't really get too interesting until next year when they will have a lot of things coming together relatively quickly: roll-out of their range of allergy tests on the IDS-iSYS platform, possible FDA approval for Food Doctor in USA, export sales of allergopharma's range of products (outside Germany) and this mysterious novel "licensed-in" technology for testing high-prevalence infectious diseases that threatens to (sic) "transform the Groups performance in that area".

I have been buying since late last year and now have a relatively substantial holding (for me at least). I will be looking to get close to a 1% holding ahead of next year if the price is maintained and my other stocks perform as expected.

At a corporate level there is always the risk that the company will be subject to a takeover bid that substantially undervalues the medium/long term business potential. However the quality of the BoD and the large investors on board give me confidence that any such takeover would probably be at a decent premium to the current price [Themo Fisher's takeover of Phadia on a 6.6 multiple of sales shows just what type of premium could be achieved].

[saucepan] 17/4/2012 16:10

An informative thread here. Thanks for the discussion. Just added ODX to my watchlist.

[longshanks] 17/4/2012 11:55

Here is a link to coverage of the results in The Herald. This includes an interview with Kieron Harbinson (FD) that gives some further insight.



It looks like the issues with export sales for Allegropharma identified in the first half continued into the second half but that they now have a workable plan to address this.

There is no mention of the "licensed-in" technology they plan to apply for their infectious diseases business area but one can presume this is still in very early and sensitive stages of due diligence.

I have some slight concerns about the Indian subsidiary. They seem to think that ditching their distributor of 20 years will be easily replaced by a direct presence - but given the potential of that growing middle class, health conscious market it may be a good long term development and a model of operation that may be extended to other regions in time if it works.

Overall I am more than satisfied with the progress to date: a £19m forecast revenue for FY2014 with forward PER of 4 is a great incentive to hold and continue building my stake.

[longshanks] 17/4/2012 08:13

I think they are still on track to meet forecasts - but we are at least 12 months away from the effectiveness of their strategic developments becoming proven.

It is these that will deliver shareholder value. That said achieving any revenue growth in the current environment is not to be sniffed at.

[monis] 17/4/2012 07:56

Could be exciting times ahead here imo dyor.

[stegrego] 17/4/2012 07:01

How likely is it that they meet forecasts though, bearing in mind organic growth was less than 10 percent?

[philo124] 16/4/2012 23:39

Good reference on Digital Look roundup. ODX reached "fever pitch", not quite----
291k traded---- but a move up at last. Forward P/E 4.

[geraldus] 16/4/2012 20:53

'The Group intends to commercialise a novel licensed-in technology.'Could be transformational,sounds interesting.

[leedslad001] 16/4/2012 16:03

Still well off peoples radar yet. Gives us a chance to get some more when funds available.

[longshanks] 16/4/2012 14:27

Market makers are now bidding to buy in quantity above the mid price and there are hardly any available online at the offer (limited to just 1500). I reckon we'll see another price move up before the close.

I thought they may have sourced a decent supply with the trade at midday but it doesn't look sufficient to meet demand. If we can break this 12p placing price then we could see a really good rally.

Best of luck all LTHs.

Edit: buyers now paying above the offer for stock: 13p paid when offer at 12.75p - but whilst the bid has risen to 11.5p the market is still bidding for quantity at 12p. Looks to me like the MMs are trying to control this and limiting any upside becoming too visible.

[longshanks] 16/4/2012 08:46

Very positive statement - will take me a while to fully digest all the details; one could be mistaken for seeing these as a preliminary report given all the information.

The numbers are actually a little below the "estimated" revenue from Edison's last note at the beginning of March: £11.1m vs £11.5m but given the numbers are less important at this stage than the development of the corporate strategic objectives I am encouraged by the accompanying statement from Andrew Shephard:


"We are very pleased with the progress Omega has made and the overall business is performing strongly. We are also looking forward to significant opportunities presented by direct access into the Indian market, the launch of a range of allergy tests onto the automated IDS-iSYS platform and new prospects that exist that could transform the performance within our Infectious Disease portfolio."


I do hope this raises the company profile somewhat; I can always continue to accumulate more shares at these ridiculously low prices - but it would be nice to see my holding generate a paper profit over the next month or two. This is exactly the kind of progress that will convince L&G to hold (and possibly increase) its holdings but I can see other institutions also looking to build stakes now ahead of concrete developments into 2013.

There has been some buying in anticipation of this update so we can expect some selling into the news. However any reasonable pick up in demand - esp. if accompanied by some Director purchases - should see a sustained rally as I for one am a long way from my target price.

[monis] 16/4/2012 08:30

Looks like the buying has started, maybe at last investors will notice the company after this very good update.

[leedslad001] 16/4/2012 08:25

Looking good :-)

[longshanks] 13/4/2012 08:11

That 40K trade just before the close yesterday seems to have taken all the free stock. Online limits once more have been reduced substantially. I think we can expect further price increases over the next week.