Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[upomega] 21/8/2019 11:41

Thanks bomber.excellent post.this could end up being one of the uk fasting growing companies'.

[leedslad001] 21/8/2019 11:40

Same here filter straight away total waster

[barrywhit] 21/8/2019 11:34

Another Name buywell2 this one filtered as well...

[buywell2] 21/8/2019 11:21

Sounds like more jam tomorrow and for the next 3 years to me

And that going into the start of a US recession confirmed by DOW Theory yesterday

[leedslad001] 21/8/2019 11:17

Yes thanks for the info sounds good

[buywell3] 21/8/2019 10:55

All it adds up to is words

buywell prefers actions

[barrywhit] 21/8/2019 10:52

Many thanks bomber, a very comprehensive summary, all adds up to a very promising few years..

[bomber13] 21/8/2019 09:59

I attended the investor briefing on Monday evening ,and I said that I would post my deliberations . Herewith a precis FYI .

The CEO's immediate message was that nothing untoward should be read into the deferral of the final results to September . Omega is expecting ERPD approval for their manual CD4 test any day now , and certain commercial discussions are awaiting clarity . Both areas have thrown up factors outside management control , so it was thought best to give extra time for these matters to resolve .

Looking at the 3 business segments , here is a concoction of what was said -

ALLERGIES -

Omega now have 62 allergens available on the IDS system , and is on track to to add 10 a year . The allergy panel went live on IDS in March , and some modest sales have been struck . A hockey stick effect in sales will not occur until the 80 allergen threshold is crossed within the next 2 years , a level which would enable the j/v to enter into proper contracts and tenders . IDS did a comprehensive survey of the allergy marketplace , and this threw out the need to have mixes of allergens for specific tree , nut , food , grass and pet allergies , and these areas will be the j/v’s focus . The market has high barriers to entry , and there are only 4 global players with Thermo-Fisher dominating the top end high volume segment . Omega claims to have a superior offering to Thermo-Fisher’s big machines in that their smaller footprint makes them faster , and nimbler to achieve the same results . The European market available to IDS is worth £230m pa , and Omega is targeting a £12m share within 5 years at 70% margins .

FOOD INTOLERANCE -

Omega’s food intolerance division returned to 7% growth in the year to March , and the CEO was at pains to say that this was achieved across the board in Europe , the Far East and North America , and that he is confident that this growth rate will accelerate into double digits this year . He also said that in many ways the biggest achievement was developing a specific food detective panel for the Chinese market , and securing its first order . This had not been expected for another 6 to 9 months . With the first order received for 20000 tests with delivery in September , a second order for 30000 tests is expected for October delivery with a possible further order being mooted . Approval for laboratory testing is expected in September and for self-testing by calendar year end , this being a much larger market . To this end Omega’s partner is developing a specific App on which to keep self-test data etc , and it is believed that the 2 other competitors in China will not get approval to launch in self-test because they do not currently have the in-house technicians . Omega believes there is potential for 0.5m tests within 18 months in China at US$15 per test . In North America , Omega is seeing renewed demand , and this is its highest margin area . With the benefit of a bespoke App , launch of Foodprint direct to the US consumer is expected to take place in January . Of the global US$130m food intolerance market ( USA US$26m / China US$20m ) , Omega is targetting US$19.5m of sales pa within 3 -5 years .

VISITECT CD4 -

Omega has substantially derisked their 350 and 200 cut off tests , both now CE marked , and with regulatory files submitted to the WHO and ERPD . The latter process takes 4 months , and they are 10 weeks or so into that protocol , hence the expectation of imminent approval . With the WHO , Omega has entered the final technical review stage to prove Visitect’s efficacy and safety in the field . All being well Omega would expect to attain WHO accreditation in March/April 2020 . For some specific aid agencies such as CHAI , ERPD approval would be enough to roll out the Visitect 200 advanced test in 7 countries , but for NGO’s like Unicef , who have the ability to bypass all individual country registration processes , WHO approval is needed . Feedback from all agencies still suggest that a disposable point of care CD4 test kit requiring no power is hugely advantageous . Indeed , there have been several instances of breakdowns , poor maintenance , and vulnerability to power cuts when using some of other point of care instruments . In fact one US aid agency has publicly stated that it will no longer buy instrumentation and will only buy lateral flow test kits , of which there is only one , Omega’s . The number of deaths from AIDS each year has stopped falling , and has now plateaued at 1m pa out of an AIDS population of 37m people . It is thought that one of the main reasons for this is the difficulty in easy monitoring of the advancing state of the disease .

On a country by country basis , Omega are targeting 24 for distribution partners , and they currently have 18 in place . In Nigeria , the worst AIDS affected in Africa , results from a 6 state evaluation of Visitect have been very good , and approval for a nationwide roll-out is hoped for shortly , to which end CD4 testing is expected to form part of spending within a large government fund recently set up to manage HIV within Nigeria . The initial order from Nigeria just announced has payment terms of 50% upfront and 50% on delivery , and Omega’s distribution partner is very well connected at a government level . In terms of the overall global market , the WHO has estimated that 6m point of care tests pa are needed , and Omega are targeting 4m of these tests for themselves within 3 - 5 years at US$5 per test , equalling US$20m . The plant at Alva in Scotland can produce 2m -3m tests pa on a single shift basis , but it is easily scalable in terms of better labour utilisation , automation and increased space . The Burnet patent will make it very difficult for competitors for at least 10 years , and Omega has no intention of offering a discount for volume to the US$5 per test list price .

All in all , I thought it was an excellent meeting , and I think these next 12 months are potentially transformational for Omega . The FD did not deny the need for additional funds , but much depends on the timing of approvals and the rate of growth . With firm orders , Omega is far more likely to draw down debt than raise equity . Indeed , the CEO said that there are no current plans to raise further equity .

[dibs61] 21/8/2019 09:28

Both 100k trades in past day clearly buys. Sneller beginning to add again?

Happy with recent announcements. £580k of orders in the past week is not bad.

Regarding the ERPD (which is a crucial milestone for larger scale orders) the company expected to submit the dossier by end April. My research tells me that the ‘time limited outcome’ for this process should take no longer than four months. On that basis we should know the outcome by the end of this month or very soon after.

Hopefully the tide is turning.

[maximillian3] 20/8/2019 15:34

INMO share price is only going to go one way and that is up. For those that have been patient I believe we are now going to start reaping the rewards...

[maximillian3] 20/8/2019 12:52

Directors will be on a lock out until full results are published so no Director buys soon!

[barrywhit] 20/8/2019 10:01

Delayed 100k purchase. Director Buy???

[likitorma] 20/8/2019 08:18

Fake bid as cannot even get firm sell quote for 25k online. I guess MMs will drop bid shortly.

[barrywhit] 20/8/2019 08:01

Good to know we can sell the Advanced Test before we get ERDP.. It’s a start...

[likitorma] 20/8/2019 07:25

Order value of £80k. That is even less than half of Hurbison annual salary lol.

[likitorma] 19/8/2019 19:43

Upo, my worry is that the auditor is refusing to sign off the going concern considering the high utilisation of the overdraft and lack of cash considering the recent placing. All they had to do is elaborate further in the RNS.
Arthur, anything good from attending the event, except the free drinks at our cost :)?

[upomega] 19/8/2019 19:33

Yes I agree there needs to be some sort of update regarding the delay. Hopefully it,s just a small matter regarding the balance sheet, but on the whole the future is starting to look exciting in my view. The only thing I can think of is that our final payment from the sale of infectious disease is not coming through due to issues they may have with their own company

[likitorma] 19/8/2019 19:11

Upo, i think we are at a realistic level considering the lack of details around the delay to the results. Their explanation for delay is vague and needs further clarrifications. If it is going concern then one may argue that share price is overvalued. They just need to give us more information, justifying the delay. What do you think?

[upomega] 19/8/2019 19:06

That sounds excellent news on both accounts. If they could just release some sort of announcement enlightening the market a little further with regards to the delay in the accounts then the shares should be trading at a more realistic level inmo

[likitorma] 19/8/2019 19:02

Still no explanation on the delay except for the vague commercial info in the RNS. Could it be to do with their going concern. That would be extremely worrying.
ALS, did they provide more info on the delay? I really hope it is not a going concern issue. Cheers.

[barrywhit] 19/8/2019 18:59

Just had a quick look through the Investor Presentation and all looks very promising with orders in the pipeline, see if we see any share purchases tomorrow...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 19/8/2019 18:41

There's going to be an announcement tomorrow of a 20000 unit order for CD4 from Zimbabwe

[likitorma] 19/8/2019 18:37

Investor presentation on the website and looks very poor. Still, no proper explanation as to why results delayed. Hahaha, cannot see mention of shareholder value in presentation.

[upomega] 19/8/2019 12:15

This is not looking good again.i feel the company should address this with an rns to enlighten the market a little more as to the reason's behind the delay in the results.

[buywell3] 19/8/2019 08:09

Highest loss and nearly twice the staff

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