Oilex Ld Share Discussion Threads

[ashleyjv] 07/7/2022 13:26

I started buying again today (Sub 0.16p)

[bigpecs] 07/7/2022 11:45

How can there be bad news they've not even started fracking yet... 75% chance of a good success rate.. hence I keep topping up as I believe this will still do very well soon

[lse2020] 07/7/2022 10:32

Looks like bad news leaking. 0.12 coming

[bigpecs] 06/7/2022 16:14

Great time to buy but bloody stupid time to sell in my opinion..

[1sajad] 04/7/2022 11:02

Refrack to commence week commencing 11/7 Roland on his way to India all ready and set to go

[josephrobert] 04/7/2022 10:55

The other board also reminded us of the market cap of OEX today vs what is was in 2014


Shortly before the horizontal Frac in July 2014 the market cap is around 6p x 600m shares


Now the market cap is around 0.17p x 8000m shares


£36m vs £14m

Even stranger is that these 'valuations' were based on 45% of Cambay in 2014 vs 100% today

Dividing the previous market cap by by the percentage share of Cambay, i.e. £36m/0.45 comes to £80m. That means if everything else being equal today's market cap should be at £80m.

So what's different now? We are not facing a horizontal dril and frac but a refrac, the AIM share index has taken a beating, the interests of the company outside of Cambay are broadly neglible both now and then, the gas price has gone up, the chance of getting a successful frac has gone up, Indian political conditions don't appear to changed for the worse, funding for small oilers has I imagine gone down...the valuations of small oilers seem to have gone down big time.

So did the market overvalue OEX in 2014 and is it seriously undervaluing OEX in 2022? So as a balance for the frothy conditions of 2014, we can see that the trade buyer Magna* valued Cambay at $4m for 10%, ie £30m for the project in 2013. Takeaway $18m for OEXs share from its market cap of £36m means to me it was overvalued as I can't explain the difference other than market conditions at the time plus the value for a listing.


So it looks to me OEX was too expensive then, but it sure does look undervalued now.


*Incidently 10% of Magna was comverted / seen as worth 12.46% of OEX on the 2nd May 2014, so Magna took a massive hit on that, 73.5m shares valued at 5p or whatever at the time, Magna never recovered from the failure of the horizontal well and subsequent dilution.

[neo26] 04/7/2022 09:33

Oilex in asx went up 16% today..

[neo26] 04/7/2022 09:19

Looking strong today, level 2.. 4vs1..

[neo26] 30/6/2022 14:10

Director transferred some shares to missus and sold from nominee acc and placed in isa.Bed & Isa.

[josephrobert] 29/6/2022 20:13

Well done 1sajad 29 Jun '22 - 14:14 - 25643 of 25646 - I bought about the same on the 23rd - from how the price is responding there seems to be a seller. Clearly many shares have similar falls before good news, part of it would be that people have had plenty of chances to invest if they wanted to by now, which just leaves a few sellers.


Courtesy of the other board for a reminder, there is a useful video to explain why this time is different from 11 minutes 40 seconds.



I reckon a few of the LTHs have long forgotten this presentation, so useful for everybody I imagine.

[1sajad] 29/6/2022 15:33

Let's hope so

[neo26] 29/6/2022 15:17

Looks like overhang nearly cleared.

[1sajad] 29/6/2022 14:14

10m buy and 5m buy (mine) showing as sells

[neo26] 29/6/2022 11:30

Not long for the frac

[1sajad] 29/6/2022 11:22

Will double my holding if it comes

[lse2020] 29/6/2022 11:07

0.12 coming

[josephrobert] 28/6/2022 15:56

I couldn't make the chart on this website show the price data back in 2014, but this website makes it clear:

[josephrobert] 28/6/2022 15:51

This was the order of events back in 2014 - including the day I - and other LTHs - won't forget - the 21st July 2014. The main problem was that 77H began to produce less gas than expected. This was underlined in the last RNS in the list below when it stated it would be connected to the low pressure network. This shows that we could intially get very positive results in July, but the real test is expected some weeks later.


24/06/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well - Commencement of Frac Stimulation



02/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Update



04/04/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Update



07/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well Frac Stim Operations Complete



14/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H Well - Milling Operations Complete



21/07/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Flaring Gas and Light Oil Recovered



04/08/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Flow-back Update



21/08/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Interim Flow-back Update



17/09/14 Oilex Ltd Cambay-77H - Intervention Complete

[neo26] 28/6/2022 09:25

Creeping up slowly.

[neo26] 27/6/2022 13:57

What rates the expecting with refrac?

[1sajad] 26/6/2022 12:53

Nice will double my holding it it does

[lse2020] 24/6/2022 14:10

0.12 coming