Ocean Wilsons (holdings)... Share Discussion Threads

[piedro] 03/2/2014 20:56

LOTM
"...lots of soy beans etc going to be shipped from the north of Brazil from a new port, sadly looks like Wilson's have missed the boat ... "

I believe that this is the referred article:
Amazon River Soy Route Seen Extending Brazil Lead on U.S.


This one shows the problen:
Brazil Soy Boom Bottlenecked as China Left Waiting: Commodities


I don't think "Wilson's have missed the boat", as there are plenty of them and the problem is so great there is no one solution.

- Tecon Salvador is now the nearest suitable port to the main soyabean region, cutting 100's of kilometers from Santos and Paranaqua, but there is still the problem of the roads.
- There is the enlarged quay and the channel has been deepened, but for shippers to change routes takes time,( and there is also the possibility of a 3rd quay).

- Wilson's is no doubt also awaiting the regulation of the new law and the resulting licitations for new container terminals in the North East where they already have warehouses - some of those ports are saturated.

This is a problem that will take years to solve, (5-10), and soya is not the only product.

Obviously the widening of the Panama Canal and the Nicaragua Canal (if it gets built), being in the news, are seen as the latest solution.

And, here is another one ... ... with a much shorter shipping route ...
Peru, Bolivia to plan construction of Ilo mega port


... jam for everyone !

AIMHO

[last of the mohicans] 01/2/2014 10:24

Recent presentation interesting to

hxxp://wilsonsons.riweb.com.br/ir/ShowApresentacao.aspx?IdTeleconferencia=r286oLBr7MT58z4gfU8Hsw==

I see they are in the process of building 2 350T tugboats whereas all the others are just 200T, hmm they must be some size!

I wonder what bollard pull they will have? 110 maybe higher, interesting development.

Hopefully we will soon get to see Jan figures soon

LOTM

[flyfisher] 01/2/2014 09:36

An extensive brokers note has been issued by Edison investment research. Available on the Edison site .

hxxp://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/team/industrials

[last of the mohicans] 12/1/2014 18:31

I see there was a Bloomberg article over the weekend about lots of soy beans etc going to be shipped from the north of Brazil from a new port, sadly looks like Wilson's have missed the boat (sorry for the pun) on that one. Maybe it was just to big an investment for them, but I do think it will have implications for the other terminals to :( :(

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/1/2014 19:29

Flyfisher,

Yes there are some nice figures in there

Tec RG did have a really good December, 62,000 units 2013, 41,000 units 2012.

Tec Sal, was good for December, up from 20,800 to 24,700.

As to profitability Tec RG is the key they need to boost exports through the terminal ASAP, need to do 57,500+ units a month in total in 2014.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/1/2014 19:09

OCN directors should be ashamed of themselves today.

They have failed to inform the market of quarterly numbers from Wilson&Sons which could easily be regarded as price sensitive.

Shame on you

Perhaps you should be making a nice contribution to charity from your cool salary's as a goodwill gesture to shareholders, as well as putting in place safeguards to ensure it doesn't happen again. If it does then its time for some OCN board changes.

LOTM

[piedro] 08/1/2014 21:32

yes, very nice and CAPEX only just beginning to show through.

[flyfisher] 08/1/2014 21:18

Superb December figures released for wson33 after the close. Container terminal volumes for December about 36% ahead of last year , towage well ahead and osv's about 24% ahead.
Overall Q4 figures should be very strong .

[flyfisher] 17/12/2013 09:02

LOTM / Piedro , thanks for the comments.

I have read several comments about poor infrastructure being a problem for brazil port operators. The article from the economist comments on Salvador , perhaps when the new expressway is completed benefits of new cargoes will show through.

[last of the mohicans] 16/12/2013 21:06

Yes Briclog, is going to change completely, $100m earmarked for it.

Earning's per share used to be close to US $2 in the good old days, with the capital that has been invested in the business they should be doing US $2 per share as the norm now with considerable upside to that number, just not happening yet.

T.Salvador seems to have a good game plan and I think it will start to show up in the bottom line soon :)

However T.Rio G is a real worry to me, its done nothing really for the last 3 years other than eat up a lot of capital, they need to focus on it and get freight through the port ASAP, even if they have to cut-there profit margin there short term, get the port at 75%+ capacity within 2 years.

Yes your right strange we haven't heard much more about RG shipyard, maybe its still having planning issues or such like?

[last of the mohicans] 16/12/2013 16:22

Thanks Piedro,

Only BR40 target price!! :( :( by the looks of it.

I reviewed the July presentation over the weekend, some interesting stuff in it.

From 2006-12 they invested $1 Billion in Wilson & Sons. Yet they have not made any real progress towards getting the same sort of return on investment that they achieved from 2001-06.

In fact if you look at the balance sheet and allow for the recent decline in the BR Real (25%+), it gets even worse because the $ value of the Brazilian assets would rise from $1B to @ $1.25B making the return on money invested much worse.

Both container terminals have ideal locations with no close by competition. Tecon RG has capacity for 1.3M annually. Tecon S 530K (which it is trying to fill through various idea's).

LOTM

[piedro] 13/12/2013 21:49

Last of The Mohicans

Great post.
I expect that Wilsons Sons will be bidding for new terminals as they become available, but by internation standards they are only small cap.

Brokers note

[last of the mohicans] 13/12/2013 01:31

Piedro,

It's a while since I wrote anything on OCN.

Your posts are very useful to say the least, on keeping me up to date.

OCN has failed its shareholders for a number of years now, simply by poor performance, its value (share price )is less than it was in 2010 I think.

Its peak performance was from 2003 to 2007 pre the financial crisis.

Since Wilson&Sons was listed the shares have not done very well - sadly

I never liked the investment portfolio, however the move into private equity looks like it will pay off in the next couple of years.

Just wish they would get rid of the other stuff, but they won't to keep Hansa happy and in effect keep control of the company.

That's why so few people know about it, or see its potential because unless the 2 main shareholders are prepared to contemplate offers, nothing can happen.

The company has invested vast amounts of money into Wilson&Sons over these last few years and if they were getting anything like the return on the money invested (return on capital employed) that they got from 2003-07 then the share price would be way, way higher, as would the pittance that they now pay-out as a dividend.

They have expanded for the future and in time shareholders should eventually be rewarded.

The container terminals are a major part of the underperformance, you just need to look back at the old annual reports to see that. RG is only working around 50% of what it could do, so its profitability is way down on what it could be and its been like that for over 3 years now, even with $200M+ spent on improvements. I'm guessing that it needs to do 40%+ of capacity to simply break-even.

I remember when it was doing 45 moves an hour and working at 120% of optimum capacity and making serious money for the company.

So the quicker they get this terminal to 75%+ of capacity the better for all.

It would be good to see them trying to buy some other container terminals to, even outside Brazil with some of the investment portfolio money to.

I did note a tweet from Wilson&Sons that said last month (October I think) was the second best in RG's history. I presume much of that would be down to these new once a week shipments to Africa. Hopefully this will expand rapidly in 2014.

LOTM

[piedro] 22/11/2013 15:08

tttie,

From my viewpoint, the risk is in what cannot be seen.

At Wilsons, there is much on the web, the ships
and terminals can be followed and the company gives
out plenty of news.

[... EDITED ...]

AIMO, BWDIK

[trytotakeiteasy] 22/11/2013 14:10

Piedro... I can't see why you would want to ditch OCN for Wilson Sons.... given that OCN is at a discount to its assets... also buying Wilson Sons you would have currency costs - maybe 1% each way on a deal.

I think that OCN offsets some of the risk of Wilson Sons given its investment portfolio... However, you could argue that as a pure play Wilson Sons is set to to much better... OCN seem to be rubbish in managing their investment portfolio too.... hood winked by lots of hedge funds..... Phanous Timber fund is one of their holdings..

[piedro] 22/11/2013 10:03

coolen,

I prefer to invest in the company rather than the company of the company (OCN), or the company of the company of the company (HAN), and am awaiting an opportunity to ditch OCN and convert all to WSON

[coolen] 21/11/2013 21:00

Do not forget HANA, and more especially the voting shares HAN,both with a large stake in OCN and trading at a useful discount to nav.

[piedro] 14/11/2013 13:42

offshore ...

November 13, 2013
Brazil's Franco Oil Field May Rival Libra in Size
BY MAREX



The Franco field off the coast of southeastern Brazil could have as much or more oil than the massive Libra field that the government last month sold in an auction to a group of energy companies, oil regulator ANP said on Wednesday.
The Libra field is Brazil's largest oil find, with 8 billion to 12 billion barrels of recoverable oil, according to both the ANP and Dallas-based certification company Degolyer & MacNaugton. .... ....
hxxp://www.maritime-executive.com/article/Brazils-Franco-Oil-Field-May-Rival-Libra-in-Size-2013-11-13/

.... tomorrow's jam ...[edited]

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/11/2013 12:52

Piedro - you have a point on the investment portfolio regarding hedging.. the investment strategy they use for the portfolio is pretty stupid.. hedge funds, obscure trusts.... high fees... they would do better just investing it in a low cost tracker... everyone seems to be copying this Swenson guy from Yale who shoved loads in private equity and outperformed...

Some of the investment portofolio's holdings are dogs... such as Phanous timber fund....

[piedro] 14/11/2013 12:43

2008 - Nov
Wilsons Sons .......... = US$ 6.15/share - £4.10
Investment portfolio .. = US$ 6.20/share - £3.84

2013 - Nov
Wilsons Sons .......... = US$ 14.54/share - £9.12
Investment portfolio .. = US$ 6.89/share - £4.32


There is an exchange variation, but in 5 the years, the valuation of
Wilsons Sons has more than doubled whereas the Investment Portfolio
has been virtually static.

IMO the BoD do not feel safe with Brazil's capabilities and are
hanging onto the IP just in case (hedging).

AIMO