Obtala Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sovereignplay] 24/7/2018 08:15

@thebigchap Look at the volume on days Miles reports his buys/sells of OBT ords. There's not enough volume in the day to allow him to buy/sell the amount. So a lot of it must be done OTC - likely to peeps his knows.

If it was really a scam / something dodgy they would have all interest to keep the share price up.

Something is cooking, so let's see

[sovereignplay] 24/7/2018 08:12

If you look at the register most of the big shareholders are MP's friends too.

@Jack Jebb where do you get the $60m profit from the crypto trade? didn't hear that story before!

[jack jebb] 24/7/2018 08:10

How does that work ?

[imjustdandy] 24/7/2018 08:05

Once they have collected all the stock the short will reverse - boom

[imjustdandy] 24/7/2018 08:04

These guys could have a short on this too so they can ingather cheaply.

[thebigchap] 24/7/2018 07:55

so let me get this straight.. we believe MP is stock piling shares in a bit of a back to front way and at some point he will have to come clean and show his hand officially.. but it is completely obvious what is going on? then why no shift in the SP?

[imjustdandy] 24/7/2018 07:32

Takeover will be quick I think. Once these argento shares are converted they will hold 20% and some.

[jack jebb] 24/7/2018 06:30

I think MP buying pref shares at the full rate is as bullish a signal as you will find. He doesn't have to do that.
Having made around $60mln on his trade sale in his crypto business, I would think he will be buying as many shares in OBT as he can, subject to the usual 30% takeover limit, which is not set in stone anyway.
I would also discount the remotest chance of a takeover in the short term. MP is the type that wants to see 200-1000% return on his capital, none of this 30-50% nonsense.

[imjustdandy] 23/7/2018 18:35

Furthermore if he knew the company was going down he would be in the Jail for selling shares as an insider. Guy feel says we are in play. Once the concert party has been disclosed and the 29.9% reached its a full bid next

[imjustdandy] 23/7/2018 18:30

Remember the Chairman also bough 750,000 shares at 7.8 last week so they're trying to suppress the stock by manipulation so they can buy around this level.

[imjustdandy] 23/7/2018 18:27

The flaw with those scenarios is someone is buying the Chairman's equity when he sells . The market can't take 50,000 sell never find 500,000 every few days. I reckon he's buying the convertibles v cheap and using his equity to fund those. The equity he's selling is going to the HK investors who already disclosed this. It's a manipulated MBO. Telling the market he's selling when all along there's a concert party buying in the background. The nomad needs investigated.

[sovereignplay] 23/7/2018 18:03

My read is that we have absolutely no insight into what is cooking.

Miles is buying the prefs at a loss... Meaning the prefs he bought convert to OBT ords for ~1,800. So say you buy one Pref and convert. You get ~1,800 ords which you sell on the market for c. 8p = you make ~$180. From the filing Miles is buying them clause to par.

so either he has a really good reason to do it (a bid) OR is being encouraged by the other pref holders who know a sh*tstorm is coming and they want out. Chairman buys you out before it gets bad.

Three theories:
1) There's a bid coming
In this case you don't care about the equity, you care about the prefs which have a 150% ratchet clause. Meaning the prefs get a lot more expensive under a change of control. You want to sit on as much prefs as possible before making your bid.
This could explain why Miles buys the prefs at a loss.
2) OBT goes bankrupt (sh*t is happening)
If the equity is worth 0 then the prefs are a better risk reward as you'll have a more senior claim on recapitalized OBT.
3) Nothing is going on
He's just buying other pref holders who want out.

In the end difficult to know whatever is going on. But hopefully someone bounces off my thoughts on the PDMR filings and we can get somewhere.

I think FV for the co is probably 12p-14p given the management issues on becoming profitable. What looks the most dodgy to me is the gross margin which even on better volumes has not been anywhere in FY 2017. And we have no numbers to work with re profitability in 2018 so far.

For argument's sake let's say 10% chance a 15p bid comes; 60% chance this is worth 13p, and 30% chance it's worth 0p. Then probability outcome indicates 9.3p or ~20% upside from current levels. We shall see :)

Bought at 7.80p last week.

[beeks of arabia] 23/7/2018 17:54

As far as Obtala goes, if Milesy (I just know he’ll love that name) is buying in any format, it’s got to be a good thing.

It’s certainly interesting, that’s for sure.

Regarding my previous post, it may be that I misread the function of the “recently liked” link, however superg1 is still a total bellend.

[mrphiljones] 23/7/2018 17:06

What is it they say,you can lead a horse to water and all that.....🙄

[beeks of arabia] 23/7/2018 16:49

So selling equity to buy the prefs.I'm not sure how I feel about this.

[shareideas1] 23/7/2018 13:10

Chairman adding to the illiquid prefs over the tradeable ords has to been seen as strong sign of longer term commitment to the story...

[thebigchap] 23/7/2018 09:41

what exactly are you basing this advice on toolsmoker?

[toolsmoker] 22/7/2018 21:25

Tomorrow is the time to add think we see a decent move this week .good luck all

[josephrobert] 20/7/2018 15:50

Looking at the tape there is either some useless brokers or the market is finally short of stock - at least at this level. Is there still a seller @ 8p?

[blue59] 20/7/2018 09:08

General rule appears to be to wait for Jack Jebb to post a plug and trade the subsequent dip!

[beeks of arabia] 20/7/2018 08:47

Thanks Dandy,I held off for an hour or so and got the price i wanted.Cheers

[imjustdandy] 19/7/2018 22:53

"Was looking to add". LOL