Oakley Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[1968jon] 14/9/2020 15:53

Of the £430m of NAV that isn't cash, £125m is debt. Ordinarily debt should be discounted less than equity.......? Just for fun apply a 5% haircut to the cash and debt and you get £367m or £1.89 per share. With a share price of £2.50 that implies a value of 61p per share for the equity or a discount to NAV of 63% I think...61p versus 167p rather than the 48% discount implied above by Simon Thompson 115p versus 221p. I did those numbers quickly so don't hold me to them.

[value hound] 14/9/2020 12:29

Tipped again by Simon Thompson today.

"There is no doubt in my mind that the shares remain priced for a profitable outcome. Adjust for cash and Oakley’s private equity portfolio (221p a share) is in the price for almost half of book value"

[davebowler] 10/9/2020 10:16

Liberum;
Event

Oakley Capital Investments' NAV per share at 30 June 2020 was 356p (previously reported), representing a 3.8% NAV total return in H1 2020 and 13.3% over the past 12 months. OCI has generated an annualised NAV total return of 16.5% over the three years to June 2020, the highest of the listed private equity funds.


NAV performance in H1 2020 benefited from realisations and resilient performance from the portfolio companies. This is due to the bias towards software, tech-enabled services, online platforms and subscription-based revenue models. The key drivers of NAV performance in the period included:

Inspired (+2.9%) - 25% uplift to December 2019 book value following full realisation in April
Career Partner Group (+3.4%) - Trading for the German university group has been very strong with a significant rise in the intake of online students. Paying students have increased by 59% y-o-y
Time Out (-7.5%) - market closures and advertising declines due to Covid1-9 led to a 68% decline in the share price over the six months to 30 June
FX (+4.5%)
12 of the 15 portfolio companies are expected to be at or near budget for the full year. Average annual EDITDA growth for the portfolio was 17.5% for the 12 months to June 2020. This compares to 30% over the 12 months to June 2019, with the decline largely a result of impacts from Covid-19. The portfolio is valued on an average 11.8x EV/EBITDA multiple (2019: 12.0x) and leverage is relatively low compared to peers at 3.7x net debt/EBITDA (2019: 4.1x).


£291m of cash was generated for OCI in the period, predominantly as a result of large realisations in Inspired (£114m, 25% premium to book value) and WebPros (£116m, 152% IRR). Cash on the balance sheet of £261m at the period end represents 38% of NAV.

Liberum view

Most of the key numbers had been reported previously in the trading update and the comprehensive capital markets day. The results have illustrated the resilient trading performance of the portfolio with the majority expected to be at or close to budget for the full year. OCI has been the best-performing private equity fund over the last three years and we believe the fund is well positioned to maintain its outperformance. We note most of the better performing portfolio companies are still held at cost, offering the potential for further NAV upside.

Oakley has a track record of completing accretive exits to large buyout funds. The majority of Oakley's investments have been sourced primarily from bilateral discussions with vendors, working directly with the founders, and Oakley usually does not acquire via secondary buyouts from other private equity houses. This has enabled Oakley to acquire businesses at very attractive valuations. The high cash balance leaves OCI in an excellent position to capitalise on a favourable environment for new investments. Fund IV is 30% deployed and OCI also recently committed to the Origin Fund (focusing on lower mid-market private companies).

We believe the shares offer exceptional value given the quality of the portfolio and the manager's track record in creating value. We note the board and manager's strong alignment of interests and desire to improve the share rating, as demonstrated by consistent share buybacks (£16m acquired since March).

[davebowler] 03/9/2020 09:24

Liberum;
Note: Digital focus providing resilience

Mkt Cap £454m | Prem/(disc) -33.1% | Div yield 1.9%

Event

OCI’s portfolio is focused on digital business models with recurring or subscription-based revenues. Recent accretive disposals have left the company’s balance sheet in excellent shape, with no leverage and a cash balance of £261.5m (38% of NAV). The share price implies a 53% discount on the portfolio value (ex-cash). We believe this is unjustified, especially given the positive NAV performance during the pandemic and Oakley’s track record of delivering NAV growth and achieving material uplifts on exits (average 34% uplift on realisations since inception).

[cwa1] 01/9/2020 07:31

Hardman research:-

[ny boy] 10/8/2020 19:30

I see one of my neighbours Dubens made a timely purchase in June, already £200k + already! Easy money this one imho

[makinbuks] 05/8/2020 18:25

Well given that a 7% fall in the value of sterling added 16p to NAV you get a fair idea of what is likely. Having made that kind of gain they may consider a hedge worthwhile

[apollocreed1] 05/8/2020 17:14

I wonder what percentage of OCI's assets are in Euros... Because if we get some kind of Brexit deal the pound will rise and cause an instant loss to OCI.

[davebowler] 05/8/2020 13:54

That's why AVI Global owns a fair chunk -

[noiseboy] 29/7/2020 12:49

Where else can you buy a Pound for 62p!

[888icb] 29/7/2020 11:36

With that NAV and cash of £261 million your investment here is pretty safe and it should start to recover to a higher share price The discount to NAV is massive.

[loobrush] 29/7/2020 11:05

RNS Asset value 356p
looking good here with big discount

[panshanger1] 06/7/2020 12:17

Origin fund launched and OCI clearly looking for opportunities.Not adding at the moment but management have a good track record GLA

[sphere25] 19/6/2020 08:03

This one might be poised to move. Some whopping big director buys announced this morning.

[sharesoc] 24/5/2020 15:52

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[panshanger1] 22/5/2020 14:42

Big placing too in relation to the market cap Presumably Invesco and R Caring on board.OCI certainly in for the long haul now - think Dubens is chairman over at TMO

[spectoacc] 22/5/2020 07:31

More TMO news. Just not sure about this, OCI doubling down (again). Quids in if it works, with a larger shareholding, and that 12% loan note. But if it doesn't? I'd rather they were sellers of TMO than buyers.

"("Time Out" or the "Company")

Proposed Placing and Open Offer to raise up to £49 million

and

Debt Restructuring



The Company today announces it is proposing to raise up to £49 million, before expenses, by way of a Placing to raise gross proceeds of up to approximately £45 million and an Open Offer to raise gross proceeds of up to approximately £4 million, in each case at an issue price of 35 pence per New Ordinary Share (the "Issue Price") (together the "Equity Fundraising").



The Placing is being conducted through an accelerated bookbuild process (the "Bookbuild"), which will be launched immediately following this announcement (together with the Appendices, the "Announcement"). Liberum Capital Limited ("Liberum") is acting as sole bookrunner in relation to the Placing.



The Company also announces that it has today entered into the amendment and restatement of the terms of the Group's €22.6 million (approximately £20.2 million) outstanding debt facilities from Incus Capital Advisers, S.A. ("Incus") (the "Incus Loan Restructuring"). The Incus Loan Restructuring is conditional upon, inter alia, the completion of the Equity Fundraising and gross proceeds being raised pursuant to the Placing of not less than £45 million.

[panshanger1] 17/5/2020 05:37

Fair point !!Education is a key area for OCI let's hope it gets moving ( safely ) quickly Interesting to see if they start to deploy some of that cash too AGM 26/5

[spectoacc] 16/5/2020 08:07

128p before or after more to TMO? ;)

Be interesting to know if the German schools etc are reopening now.

[panshanger1] 15/5/2020 17:05

With 128p cash everything has its price though !!

[spectoacc] 15/5/2020 13:27

Agreed, TMO were just getting it together. The huge debt load/ongoing losses always an issue, but were in sight of breaking through.

Not sure OCI has much choice but to support, with c.51% combined, but if I was a TMO shareholder I wouldn't much like that 12%. Really no govnt coronavirus loan available?

And how much money will OCI need to throw at them?

But enough from me - not tempted back to OCI just yet.

[panshanger1] 15/5/2020 10:12

Poor old TMO !!Dreadful timing for them with the new markets just coming on stream Dubens and OCI going to support them through this but could be a long haul

[spectoacc] 15/5/2020 07:22

Interesting:

"Time Out Group plc (AIM: TMO), the global media and leisure business, announces that the Company has extended its existing £20 million loan from Oakley Capital Investments Limited ("OCI") (plus £4.2 million of accrued interest as at 01 May 2020) by drawing down £2.5 million of an available £18 million extension (the "Loan Extension"). The availability of this Loan Extension was first announced in September 2018 and is part of the liquidity available to the Company set out in the announcement dated 23 March 2020. The Loan Extension has now been executed and is provided on identical terms to the existing loan. Funds drawn will be repayable in May 2021 along with accrued interest charged at 12 per cent."


12%..

[panshanger1] 14/5/2020 16:59

Starting to get interesting at this level Market very risk off today and looks like it wants to go lower Will keep powder dry for time being