Northgate Information Solutions Share Discussion Threads

[grlz] 14/12/2007 11:59

I wonder if Brossauds covered that early 4.4m short they opened, looks like their taking some longs now - ouch

[grlz] 14/12/2007 11:57

hif - seems to be tru

[hifkdmer] 14/12/2007 10:53

Same as last 2 days.
Dips to a low late morning with a decent recovery in afternoon.

[chrisc168] 14/12/2007 10:39

This is not looking good. Loads of sells.

[togglebrush] 14/12/2007 08:37

There 582,447,418 ordinary shares in issue.

Over 89 million trades or say 44.5 million shares have changed hands this week already (4 days). That is 7.7% of shares issued changed hands.

September (17/21) there were 52 million trades in the week. July (4/13) saw heavy trading. There are a number of spells like this in a share which otherwise trades at below average to its issued share base. 2.1 million is the recent median trading day.

IMHO Either the big boys are playing games or something may be about to happen

[hifkdmer] 13/12/2007 20:34

further buying tomorrow will see this back into the 70's

[hifkdmer] 13/12/2007 19:29

Dow making a nice recovery
Should see this make a nice move up tomorrow.
A screaming buy at this level
all imho and dyor!

[desperate dan] 13/12/2007 18:38

grlz - 13 Dec'07 - 17:54 - 5610 of 5611

imho, good post

[hifkdmer] 13/12/2007 18:08

anyone spoken with directors?

[grlz] 13/12/2007 17:54

Toggle - IOT and TOX have zero in common with NIS

TOX decided to book rolling licence income on day 1, inflating the P&L - this is why the SFO investigated and the company was worthless. IOT had a problem with product deliver not matching its ability and it's balance sheet was none existent.

NIS has one of the most conservative revenue recognition systems in place in the entire industry - in fact its so ultra conservative that it flatters the company's accounted cashflow. This is historic as NIS wants it's P&L to appear bullet proof as it's a major contractor for the Police and Criminal Justice system.

c'mon even the doom and gloom from MS puts the company at a mere 6x earnings - so whatever the true value pops at it ain't 46p

Bid negotiations faltered last time round because Stone was hugely influential in demonstrating to the Board his strategy served the interests of shareholders better going forward against a suggested bid price of 105p - A year on Stone's ground looks less solid so any serious interest over 80p is going to have legs - I suspect a recommended @80 would flush out others as value is closer to 90/95 - A quid I would like but you have to be realistic.

imho/dyor

[togglebrush] 13/12/2007 17:17

I think the problem here is the history and connection with ISOFT and TOREX. Torex was a question for the SFO after a Clash of the Titans. But in all 3 cases the Balance sheet has a lot of goodwill and intangibles on it. With take overs there can be some funny things happening when paying for goodwill etc. However Torex software is still working and vital to many businesses (as is Northgates) and Cereberus got a bargain.

It is easy to spook the market in UK for software companies. In USA Microsoft and all are making loads of money.

[chrisc168] 13/12/2007 16:43

What will NIS bring us tomorrow ????

[neefax] 13/12/2007 15:23

GRLZ is correct, NIS have been so conservative with their press releases. There is no doubt about Chris Stones integrity. He has done a marvellous job and long may he reign.

[tsmith2] 13/12/2007 13:44

lose your shirt now we have FLASH gordon

[simon gordon] 13/12/2007 13:33

grtz - I am not short, as NIS is a dogs dinner with many pups trying to scoff the Butchers. Like I said before this is Torex Retail all over again. I hope you don't lose your shirt!!!!

[tradx666] 13/12/2007 13:21

grtz,

I think we are in agreement.

:-)

regards

T..

[tsmith2] 13/12/2007 13:19

superjane

care to elaborate, I was led to believe early next week

[superjane] 13/12/2007 13:14

news is imminent..

[grlz] 13/12/2007 13:03

Tradx - This ain't some AIM oiler NIS/Stone have never misled the market - in fact one of the probs is they are ultra conservative when it comes to releases - If NIS say a bid has been presented then I belive that is correct.

aimho/dyor

[grlz] 13/12/2007 12:58

chrisc - NIS has significant PE shareholders like GAP @13%, any bidder essentially needs the Board's recommendation - last year the world was awash with cheap money and during the 2006 bid Stone convinced the N/E Directors + Main board that any offer below 105p didn't adequately reflect the company's value going forward - Stone structured as 73% hedged credit facility of £513m (advanced £416m) to buy Arinso building upon an existing relationship with Barclays who had advanced credit to previously acquire Sx3.

Arinso was a top of the market purchase but is integrating well, just financially it has knocked the balance sheet but Northgate's cashflow is such that it can trade that out and INCREASE THE DIVI which everyone seems to have forgotten about.

Cheap money has vanished but then again NIS is now in a repayment cycle to reduce debt after acquiring Arinso and does not need to refinance plus the rates it has secured are fairly decent and majority hedged.

If a bidder(s) table 80/90p Stone cannot argue and the board will recommend - The bidder(s) need to see the books for due diligence, they will only be opened if the price being talked allows further dialogue and that's why the market is cautious as no one has shown their hand.

imho/dyor

[tradx666] 13/12/2007 12:50

chris,

I agree with tsmith, if a bid comes forth at around £1 then it would be very diffcult to turn it away, As for 'rumours' it must be more than that or they couldn't and wouldn't have told the market...

I do expect that any bidder may well wish this to be a friendly t/o and is unlikely to go want to go hostile....

The fundamentals of this business are sound, and if they can convince all and sundry that the debt is entirely managable and reducing, then this must go up!

regards

T..

[tsmith2] 13/12/2007 12:38

Chrisc

On fundamentals alone the company is undervalued eps of 8 next year! The bid is an added bonus and Stone may well accept given the what has happened to the share price since last year..£1 would be a knock out bid