Northern Rock Share Discussion Threads

[bryan2] 20/8/2008 16:40

There is an air of unreality about the mortgage situation and affordability.
I have recently re-read the Downwave by Robert Beckman.
In the book he accurately predicted the house price crash of the mid to late 80ies.
He lists factors to show that the market then was grossly inflated and about to fall.
However using the same figures, today's market is about normal.
He gives a figure of 25% of household income being spent on mortgages as being normal and sustainable.
With average household income of about £35000 and average mortgage of around £140000 and interest rates of around 6% you can work it out for yourself.
Further unemployment was much higher in the 80ies.
Interest rates were much higher then touching 15% at times.
Although unemployment may rise and interest rates move around a band of 5% to 7% the doom and gloom has been overdone.
Banks have been hit hard by sub prime USA investments CDUs and SIVs which have removed liquidity.
The removal of liquidity was not caused to any great extent by the UK housing market.
Hence our position on Northern Rock being a victim and not a cause of the credit crunch.

[greycioud] 20/8/2008 16:27

You are brighter than dan so naturally he cannot see his own folly.

[scribbler101] 20/8/2008 15:44

I wish I shared your confidence.

[greycioud] 20/8/2008 14:37

Mutter in the gutter is Dan is a muppet!!!!!!!!

[diydan] 20/8/2008 12:36

hvs
Most of the world financial sector is sitting on huge losses. Where you been? you not seen the right downs at UBS RBS BARC etc in fact pick almost any bank.

[hvs] 20/8/2008 10:05

Jon Wood is sitting on losses of over 70% in his investment fund.

TAX PAYER TO THE RESCUE ??? NOT !!!!!!!!

[diydan] 20/8/2008 09:57

Get ready for a big house price drop folks. How many people got at least £25K to put down on a mortgage in cash?

"Mortgage lending slump continues"

Tomorrow the Abbey is cutting the rates it charges on its two-, three- and five-year mortgage deals, for borrowers who can put down a 25% or 30% deposit.

But these are aimed at customers of other lenders who are seeking a better deal, not at people who are moving house or trying to buy a home for the first time.

"They only have two fixed-rate deals for people with deposits of less than 25%," said Aaron Strutt of mortgage brokers Chase de Vere.


"Their most competitive deals are for people with at least 25% to put down," he added

[diydan] 19/8/2008 19:20

Scribbler101
We will have it back well before they get involved. HMG will not want this running for months in the press so will make an offer soon, Well before it gets to court anyway.

[diydan] 19/8/2008 19:17

Has anyone got any info on this cowboy squad HMG is going to pay to do the dirty work for them with the valuation. Mutter from the gutter is they were the ones who did ENRONS valuation and books just before they went bust. They say it was not their fault but someone told them to value it that way.... Is that true or are people having a laugh????

[coogar] 19/8/2008 16:06

bryanmuppet knows nothing about banks, only failed former building societies LMAO

He doesn't even seem to realise that The Nationwide Building Society is not a bank.

[scribbler101] 19/8/2008 15:15

SunEx story sounds like nonsense. HMG have stolen the equity. If they wanted to default on the bonds they would have done at the time. It is inconceivable that a nationalised bank could default. And if it did, HMG would lose control, unless they passed another doubtful act to be challenged in the courts.

NewTory gov't should offer it back to old holders provided they buy up the new equity pro-rata. I'm game.

[greycioud] 19/8/2008 10:33

Hows Bank Sandanter Brianmuppet?? Is it a new bank??

[greycioud] 19/8/2008 10:22

Just privatise it back to the shareholders for 250p per share. Sorted!!!!

[bryan2] 18/8/2008 17:00

DIYDAN

Some of the British business press journalists must have taken short positions on Banks by the way they absolutely rubbish them.
I was reading an interesting article in a recent edition of Investors Chronicle.
It looked at housing slumps since WW2, there have been 4 major price slump periods.
It looked at which stocks you should buy as a defence in such periods.
Pharmaceuticals and tobacco were top.
However not far behind were Banks.
From the evidence in the post war period it seems that the assumption that if house prices fall then Banks are in big trouble is erroneous .
Today's news is that Nationwide BS is going to open branches in Eire so it can get access to ECB funding.

[bobobob5] 18/8/2008 16:33

The Conservatives will have to sort out this mess, imo.

[p1zzie] 18/8/2008 15:23

from sunday express.
investor worries mount on rock.
by geoff ho.
northern rocks bond investors are on collision course with the gov , as fears
mount that the treasury will refuse to repay the banks debts to the city.
last week worried bond investors and the association of british insurers held crisis talks because the gov has refused to say if it will honour the repayment of £550 million worth of bonds that were issued by northern rock.
the next set of annual repayments is due sept 21.
bond investors fear the gov will instead give the money to n r. former shareholders who saw the value of their investments wiped out by feb's nationalisation, a number of them , including srm global and rab capital, are suing the gov for compo.
last month a joint a.b.i, i.m assoc and l.i.b associations effort failed to get any guarantees out of the gov.
the trio wrote to the treasury demanding it repect the rights of northern rocks bond holders.
not only did the treasury refuse to provide them the guarantees ,it also turned down its pleas for face to face talks.
sources close to northern rock belive the citys fears are groundless.
they point out that the bank has never missed a bond repayment and claim it is not something the bank is considering.

[diydan] 18/8/2008 13:18

bryan2
Good points about spanish banks and and the ease of funding. People on here and in press are now so pleased that they are picking up AL. at 25% of its value this time last year. I wonder if they would feel as good when they have to sell the house they live in at the same rate and are just pleased someone can get the funds to buy it off them..... Even at 25% of last years value...

[diydan] 18/8/2008 13:12

Well it looks like though the UK and London are to be thought of as a major centre for world finance HMG can not find a single UK firm willing to do the dirty work for them?

[coogar] 18/8/2008 12:10

bryanmuppet

The latest thing to cripple Northern Rock are the 125% mortgages coming home to roost.

Stop blaming everyone else except those truly responsible for causing NRK to go down the pan... the previous board of directors.

[coogar] 18/8/2008 12:06

No valuer is needed to confirm there is no value in Northern Rock!

[bobobob5] 15/8/2008 10:45

What, the shareholders' shares are worth noting, but the Government's shares in the same company are - purportedly - going to be worth a fortune? Seems a bit odd to me. I have none of these, but I personally think the shareholders have been treated abominably and I hope that SRM and Rab put the boot in.

[onsider] 15/8/2008 08:03

Yes GreycIoud, you certainly are.

[greycioud] 14/8/2008 16:31

LOL idiot!!!!!!!!!

Bank Sandanter!!! LOL WOT a Muppet!!!!!!!!!

[bryan2] 14/8/2008 14:26

ECB lending and Bank Sandanter

ECB lending to Spanish Banks jumped to a record 73.6B Euroes in July.
In turn Bank Sandanter owner of Abbey and soon Alliance & Leicester snaps up more and more of British mortgage market.
The Spanish find the British mortgage market very profitable.
With ample liquidity (courtesy of the ECB) the Spanish make fortunes .
Contrast this approach to that of BoE and NRK.
The once most efficient mortgage provider in the UK, is being crippled by leaks, denial of liquidity and confiscation of assets.
The sooner the twin disasters,Gordon Brown and Mervyn King depart the better.

[greycioud] 14/8/2008 07:01

In short no compo for muppets!!