Northern Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[times104] 28/5/2011 09:52

Can anyone correct me on this please.
My understanding is that it was/is a condition of NOP's Dutch licences that all these fields had to be drilled, worked over, tested,etc etc. Perhaps the company should have stayed in Russia at 1p per share......................????

[maxk] 28/5/2011 08:24

Small-caps: Warning hits Northern Petroleum
By Bryce Elder

Published: May 27 2011 20:28 | Last updated: May 27 2011 20:28

Northern Petroleum tumbled 35.1 per cent to 73p after the explorer warned that three of its four Dutch gasfields had not been as productive as expected.

Northern cut its proved and provable reserve base in the Netherlands by about a third in response. "The reserves downgrade is perhaps not too dramatic, at least in the context of Northern's wider portfolio which includes Italy and the UK, but will result in impairment charges and a reported loss in 2010," said Shore Capital. It called the announcement "an effective profit warning" that "raises new questions about the company's ability to deliver."
.

[sg31] 27/5/2011 21:20

Now we know what bdog looks like. Thanks for posting his photo.

[estseon] 27/5/2011 20:36

"Looks like soulsauce was right all along!"

The sad thing is that he had a better than evens chance of being right.

[buywell2] 27/5/2011 20:18

The news today spooked investors

There is no substitute to drilling to see what is down there as DES has proved.

As it happened I happened to forecast 18p and then 10p for DES over a year back when it was over £1 because I thought the data was wrong and previous drilling by others said so.

Having said that NOP are operating in a much more friendly place than DES , and at some point the share could be enticing.

For now the chart looks a bit grim

[the marlboro man] 27/5/2011 20:14

Looks like soulsauce was right all along!

[buywell2] 27/5/2011 20:08

I think this guy has a point, although my view is that QE3 will only get implemented IF oil does NOT fall back to around $85 in 2012.

If there is a QE3 then the commodities boom will continue once more

When QE2 ends in June 2011 , commodity prices should fall back


adyfc - 27 May'11 - 17:21 - 32560 of 32566


When qe ends 30th june the U.S economy is gonna fall off a cliff and i believe oil prices are gonna get a kicking until qe3 is implemented, not what nop needs now.

[bionicdog] 27/5/2011 19:34

Aye , sod it let's all have a drink.

[estseon] 27/5/2011 19:07

bionic,

I fully agree with the proposed action but not sure that the mix would do me much good.

I think that you will find that a geo and a "competent person" can give only a "reasonable" opinion and, provided that the methodology is recognised as appropriate, there is little culpability that can be pinned on them. If they were measuring the level of fuel in a tanker, that would be different. It is Graham Heard (CGeol.FGS, who has over 35 years experience as a petroleum geologist) who signs off.

There's no doubt that this is a big disappointment but, unless DM has been making statements that haven't been signed off by a geo, it cannot really be said that it's his fault. He has to take the flak but that's because of his position.

However, it's by no means the end of the Company. Frankly, if anything comes of the drilling offshore Sicily (yeah! I know - we are waiting to hear on that as well), the Dutch reserves will be relegated to being roundings. Besides which, I recall (but it's been such a long haul that my memory may not be correctly recalling it) that the Dutch assets were being exploited to fund the E&D of the Italian licences. They were a means to an end (hopefully, deliriously happy).

If I can release some cash, I might add. I can't say "average down" because I've held the shares so long that they are a bit in profit even now! But a significant recovery in the short-term would possibly require Shell to decide to proceed without too much delay. And, as Shell is having to deal with the Italian authorities and get their agreement to a potentially environmentally unfriendly or hazardous drilling operation, it might take a little time. Then again, it might not. But, though I'd be very happy to make more, in that case, I'd settle for making something respectable.

Have a good weekend all.

[bionicdog] 27/5/2011 18:17

estseon
If Derek is not the one appraising reserves and designing wells , what does he do then? It's pretty hard to undiscover a resource previously stated as proven. If they have employed someone else to do it , then they should be sued.
Anyway , back to the matter in hand (literally) , Budvar then some NZ merlot.

[hashertu] 27/5/2011 18:08

Estseon. To back up your point made in 32561. Abstract from the RNS.

In conjunction with preparation of the
Annual Report and Accounts for 2010 and for the purposes of production
projection and reserve assessment for the Grolloo gas field, Northern has taken
the decision to adopt what is considered to be the more conservative view that...

[estseon] 27/5/2011 17:58

adyfc - 27 May'11 - 17:21 - 32560 of 32561

I thought that the preacher had given the world a reprieve and that all would end now in October?

adyfc - I somewhat doubt that QE has such magical properties - more like half an aspirin than life-support. Anyway, Goldman Sachs switched to bullish on commodity prices a few days ago - so all must be well :-)

[estseon] 27/5/2011 17:51

imperial3 - 27 May'11 - 15:57 - 32550 of 32560

The timing may well relate to the audit process, so it may not be a coincidence that the 2010 accounts are due shortly.

DM is getting the flak but he's not a geo. Sure, the buck probably stops with him but he's not the one appraising reserves and designing wells.

[adyfc] 27/5/2011 17:21

When qe ends 30th june the U.S economy is gonna fall off a cliff and i believe oil prices are gonna get a kicking until qe3 is implemented, not what nop needs now.

[thx1138] 27/5/2011 17:04

Well I hoovered a few up this afternoon, seems like too good an opportunity to miss.

[bionicdog] 27/5/2011 16:20

BB
Not a problem mate. But you did force me to reread the RNS as I thought I'd gone mental for a while. I'll never get those 5 minutes back.

[pugugly] 27/5/2011 16:17

Almost has a feel of Ranco and Seven Heads - Any geologist got a real feel for the continuity of the reservoirs - How sure are we that the interepretation of tight by the company is correct. If it is may now be fair value - If not could be a lot further to fall.

[bookiebuster] 27/5/2011 16:13

Sorry typo, meant to say most of P1 at Wijk en Aalburg has gone

[surfer2] 27/5/2011 16:10

The revisions are as follows:

Fields in Gas (Bscf)

Geesbrug

Previous 1P 73.63 Revised by around 20% downwards to 1P 60.22

Previous 2P - 137.85 Gas (Bscf) Revised by around 50% downwards to 2P - 72.79 Gas (Bscf)


Grolloo 1P - from 6.44 to 2.29 and 2P - from 10.52 to 3.00 ( rendered too small to proceed maybe but wasnt large anyway )

Wijk en Aalburg 1P - from 3.82 to 0.36 2P - from 5.49 to 2.83 ( rendered effectively useless but was tiny anyway so not such a big deal imo )

The effect of the above would appear to be that NOP must reconsider spending any more money on the 2 small fields and concentrate on the larger field and using the money to fund appraisal or development of the onshore UK discoveries ( 7 million Oil P1 btw )

The above revisions reduce the Group's 2P reserves by 75.24 Bscf, which is the
equivalent of 12.97 million barrels of oil equivalence. When the Company issued
its results for the six months ended 30th June 2010, it reported Group 2P
reserves of 102.67 million barrels of oil equivalence.




BB, Where does it say all the Holland P1 assets are gone?

there have been major reductions to the P2 reserves across the 3 fields and major reductions to the P1 across the 2 small marginal fields. The Major field is down from 73 to 60 P1. and i thought P1 or P90 reserves are 90% certain to be recovered. P2 reserves are 50 % certain to be recovered.

[imperial3] 27/5/2011 16:10

Yes,the potential is still there,it is not over by any means,but how long do we have to wait.Does another company need to steer the course,to get to the destination quicker.At these prices,the company is certainly undervalued inmho.Perhaps all the bad news has been factored in now.

[soulsauce] 27/5/2011 16:07

Julcester really what is the point NOP winning another licence to add to the other wad in the bottom file drawer at head office.

A lot of poster, mainly newbies are missing the point, Holland was supposed to be the golden egg to produce enough funds to agressively go at Italy.

With the forecast of only 15m euros income and no word on costs of outlay on the now troublesome wells I would assume for the forseeable future there will be no money to fund the very significant costs of offshore Italian wells unless they find free carries with big farm downs or raise large amounts of money.

If Shell walk away Italy offshore is all but over for NOP.

[ntbb] 27/5/2011 16:02

sorry to all long term holders, imperia3 the positive is cheap shares with prospect in billions, compare that to char

[bionicdog] 27/5/2011 16:01

BB
You might care to rewrite your post. I think that you are confused.