Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 20/10/2017 10:29

I've been short on the FTSE in one shape or form since 6th Oct.

[aleman] 20/10/2017 09:59

Just been looking at PSBR numbers. Debt/GDP topped out at the end of 2015 and started improving. A few quarters ago it had improved 1.0 on 12 months earlier. The last three quarters are improved by 0.6, 0.5, 0.4. The trend is slowly deteriorating again. I noticed September, compared to year to date, showed marginal weakening trends in production taxes, VAT, corporation tax and fuel duty. Yesterday's retail sales also showed falling fuel sales for September compared to last September (-2.4%), the third consecutive falling month, though that could be down to the cool late summer.



I still think the economy is slowly weakening and can only imagine Q3 GDP being lower than Q2. Government numbers suggest probably just about positive. Corporate news suggests maybe not.

(Traffic home from the quiz has been very up and down of late - sometimes very busy - but last night was dead and the quietist for many years. All right, the weather was poor - but you do get occasional poor weather at this time of year. I tend to think having miles of motorway to myself in this day and age IS significant. I've even had a few easier runs to football of late and that is usually a terrible drive.)



It's worth remembering that all this slight slowdown being seen in different surveys and reports has been happening as credit card debt has continued to expand strongly. The latter can not continue inidefinitely, and housing debt's more modest growth looks like it is about to flatline.

[shadowside] 20/10/2017 09:46

Morning all, Back in circulation after a week in Palermo. Well worth a visit and nowhere near as frenetic and impoverished as we had been led to expect. Nice to be able to eat out in restaurants and cafes in the evening......with the tourists of course....the locals were wrapped up in fur coats inside. We went on an AddiosPizzo AntiMafia tour which felt a bit edgy but nowhere near as scary as the landing at Heathrow. The pilot pulled out of the landing just a few seconds before we touched down due to some "technical problem". I would have called it an "Aborted landing" but in BA captain speak it was a "Discontinued approach". In 50 years of fairly regular flying I have had the odd aborted takeoff but never experienced that skimming the runway sensation before. Was all fine second time around.

Shares have had there ups and downs whilst I have been away but nothing too unsettling. I share Alemans concerns about near term. Apparently Margin Calls in US are 3X level before last financial crisis. In addition to all the normal issues this will be the first crash since trading became so heavily automated and not sure how that will play out. Presumably it will be all over before one can react and online trading platforms will probably seize up anyway. I read an interesting article about Chinese property funding which I didnt fully understand but the gist of it was that much of the borrowing is very short term aka Northern Rock and off balance sheet through fancy foreign exchange swaps.I still think China will be the Black Swan.

[hyden] 20/10/2017 08:41

Morning all. Thank you for your replies MrP and Aleman. I am in no rush to buy and will continue to monitor for a while.

Hazl, I do think that markets are over-heated and will at least correct at some point, if not fall into a full blown bear market. Markets often climb a wall of worry in my experience and only retreat once good news starts to surface again. If it holds true on this occasion then it might be a while before we see any meaningful deterioration. On the other hand, surely we have been climbing this wall for a while now and the correction is imminent?

[aleman] 20/10/2017 08:08

BOOT up 7%. I'd be selling.

[aleman] 20/10/2017 07:56

hazl - I think you are probably already aware I've been expecting a recession for a while. Credit markets started to show deteriorating quality issues before the referendum and bad trends have since been accelerating. I've been taking evasive action and hold a little cash (very unusual for me) but I would never sell up. I just try find stuff that might do okay in hard times (keeps income flowing) and wait for opportunities to switch into stuff that gets clobbered. More stuff has been getting clobbered of late which I think is the beginning of the recession. I don't see how it can just be a correction if credit delinquencies continue to deteriorate.

ADVFN seem to be having trouble with this morning's RNS feed, as do some other sites. I was going to link to the BOOT update. I think it is a convoluted profit warning. They state that many completions have been done earlier than expected, so results shoulld be ahead of expectations, and they are trying to replace them next year. x+y this year followed by x-y next year will be a fall of 2y. I'm curious to see if te market treats it as good news or bad.

[mrphil] 20/10/2017 07:48

Morning All.

Back to my usual 2/7 this week, and I knew one of those! My excuse is, I had a migraine on Wednesday afternoon so the brain is still fuzzy!

hazl, gut feeling is much the same, we must be heading for a correction but I'm not inclined to go for a mass sell. I have a 5-7 year target for the SIPP so hopefully time to get back on track if I do suffer badly.

[hazl] 20/10/2017 07:16

Blueliner much the same here

[skinny] 20/10/2017 06:59

Good Morning.

The DOW managed to close positive - again!.

The futures show it 23,239 +72.



5/7.

[blueliner] 19/10/2017 20:37

Hazl. Expecting a correction, but when. Have a buy list ready, but reluctant to clear the decks.

[hazl] 19/10/2017 19:36

Mr P. sounds like we both like the stuff!

Is everybody here still pretty bullish or expecting a drop at some point in the not too distant future?

[aleman] 19/10/2017 19:15

I do no know why 45878 would not post. I tried more than once. Weird.

[aleman] 19/10/2017 19:13

PETS will remain on my watchlist, unbought until it becomes clearer how far margins are going to shrink with the changes and how much more they might suffer reducing footfall as hard pressed consumers cut costs. If they are going to stock cheaper lower-margin lines, might they just lose sales to supermarkets? I'll be watching from the outside - unless the shares fall some more, maybe.

[deanforester] 19/10/2017 19:11

I'm down by -0.308% on teh day today (FTSE100 -0.263%).

Worst falls: ULVR -5.49%, CLLN -2.84% and BA. -2.5% XD.

Best rises: BP. +0.85%, ADM +0.74% and PSON +0.58%.

ULVR's 3rd quarter results seemed to have spooked the market.

Our cordless phones have packed up. We could hear but not be heard. It might have been down to the batteries in the handsets, but the battery covers didn't want to budge, so I decided that it was time to change, as a failure of the base unit was possible. A quick nip into Argos this afternoon produced a base unit and slave for £35. Now connected up and on charge. This one has an answer machine, which I have left untouched so far. I don't know what the default settings are, but will explore later.

A few showers after lunch, some heavy, some light. +13°C this morning, not much more later, but very misty first thing. Technically fog, as the visibility was about 200 yards.

DF

[blueliner] 19/10/2017 19:10

-0.20% for the Folio [FTSE250 -0.63%. FTSE All-Share -0.32%]

Worst value fallers : NXG -5.2%, BA. -2.5%[xd] but down more than the dividend amount.
plus IGR -1.3%, GVC -1%.

Highest value risers : MGP +3.7%, NAH +3%, MCLS +1.9%

Puzzling fall in NXG, Shore Capital's sell rating reaffirmation was on Monday but still having an effect? Other recent broker views seem to be hold or neutral.

Disappointing day but better than indices but it looks like I'm headed for first weekly loss for a bit (w/e 16.09.17).

Worst of the forecast rain area seems to have veered just west of us into the Dales/Pennines. But still a groggy day.

[mrphil] 19/10/2017 18:03

Hyden, like you I consider PETS to be pretty much recession proof as we won't stop spending on our pets! We have a large store locally which has recently been upgraded and looks smart. The staff are attentive and appear knowledgeable, and it just feels like a well run store which, if reflected across the estate, makes me comfortable investing. The figures look fine to me and it generates cash. I reckon the divi is pretty safe and the shares ought to only go one way from here imho. Good luck if you do jump aboard.

[hyden] 19/10/2017 17:57

MrP, I have added PETS to my watch list. It seems to me that this stock should be more recession proof than most yet it seems to be suffering just as much as other retailers which is somewhat puzzling.

The dividend yield is 4%+ and is twice covered and the recent trading statement looks broadly positive. I see the share price has been in decline since mid-2015 and the only stock-specific reason I can see is the sales by a major holder (KKR) but they may have other reasons for selling?

I am interested in your and others' views. What were your reasons for buying/holding?

[mrphil] 19/10/2017 17:26

At least the losses reduced as the day went on, but the SIPP still suffered -0.25% due mainly to INTO, TATE & PETS, the pot -0.42% AMS, SGC & DC.

Trolley patrol postponed from last night to tonight, but nothing on tele as far as I can see.

[hyden] 19/10/2017 17:18

-0.4% for me. A lot of relatively small losers but NXG stands out as today's worst value faller (-5.2%). POG is today's best value riser.

[hyden] 19/10/2017 16:56

There's two things I take from these articles Aleman (post 45868):

“Investors are their own worst enemies. Activity, for the average investor, is value destructive.” and

“… 2017 is setting the stage for a more painful downfall at some point … But for now, apparently, party on.”

In other words the average investor should simply sit on their hands and not try to time the market. This just results in over-trading and excessive charges which can only serve to reduce returns over the long term.

I hold the view that it is better to remain invested and not tinker with ones holdings too much but, importantly, keep a sensible cash holding to cover anticipated needs over the short to medium term. For me, that amounts to sufficient cash to cover my expenditure over the next 3 - 5 years in the hope that I will not be forced into a fire sale of my investments in the event of a market downturn.

The markets may go on to make another 10% from here, or we may already have hit the top and about to fall into the next bear market. I have no idea which so I continue to sit on my hands and hope to out-perform the average fund manager (for no other reason than to avoid excessive charges, rather than any particular investing skill on my part).

[aleman] 19/10/2017 16:53

+0.2% for me so still seem stuck in a tight range, going back a few weeks.

Cool in the house today. Horrible, wet, misty and murky outside. You'd expect rain to clear it away but not today. Visibility was terrible on the motorway. Despite rain being moderate, rather than heavy, you could still only see the road for about 50 meters and the top half of cars ahead for about 100m. It still felt dangerous even with traffic all slowed to 50-55mph. And it's the second day this week where lights have been needed all day.

[aleman] 19/10/2017 16:45

My newly upgraded BT Infinity keeps dropping out for a few seconds here and there, and I'm sure it's getting slower - but it's doing better than Virgin!



It makes me worry that we are pushing more and more essential services onto the internet when my experience is that it is getting more and more susceptible to technical faults.

[aleman] 19/10/2017 16:16

There's been several earnings disappointments in the US and speculation of big job cuts from Siemens and GE. Genuine Parts missed forecasts by about 10%, eBay numbers were okay but they are down a bit on weak guidance, and a bit more technical news took the shine off Apple - everything for Apple just lately seems to be poor news. They seem to have contracted Tesla's cold.

I can see US Q3 market earnings being revised down again this weekend but, possibly more importantly, I can see strong Q4 earnings forecasts starting to deflate. It's baffling how the US can keep having strong industrial and consumer surveys that push strong media headlines and firmer interest rates yet they are not being matched by corporate results.

As earnings disappoint and shares rise, the CAPE has gone over 31. Pundits are starting to try convince us it's different this time.




In Europe, Unilever's mediocre number saw them fall 6%.

[aleman] 19/10/2017 16:05

There are lots of stories about just lately about how ETFs might aggravate a market fall.



Then today I read:



And then remember that margin trading is higher than it has ever been and cash holdings are the lowest on record and you do wonder if the market can correct without a mad panic for the exits.