Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[mrphil] 15/12/2016 14:42

It's still too easy to get into debt and in this blame culture it's all too easy to walk away from your obligations with an IVA. Sorry I didn't realise I would have to pay it back!

[aleman] 15/12/2016 13:59

Blip or turning point? UK personal insolvencies didn't just rise in Q3. It was the 5th consecutive rise and it accelerated. And that is before the recent increase in redundancies and mortgage rates could have much effect

[mrphil] 15/12/2016 12:00

Interesting parting shot

[aleman] 15/12/2016 11:14

NPD says Christmas $ sales down 3% after 5 weeks with last week down 5%.



I'm not familiar with this survey or company. I presume it includes foreign $ sales which will be hit by its strength.

[deanforester] 15/12/2016 10:52

There are one or two odd spikes in prices this morning, if you look at the charts for BP., MKS and BT.A. Whether it was the same thick finger or what, one cannot say.

At least interest rates are starting to move back towards reality. They should never have fallen below about 2.5%.

DF

[aleman] 15/12/2016 10:47

Retail sales figures are strong and it's a little bit baffling. It just adds to the trange mix of concurrent good and bad news. There are similarities with the US where online is benefitting while bricks and mortar suffer. This will probably boost November a bit at December's expense. I note clothing sales trends were still negative and fuel sales volumes growth has fallen away but undoubtedly the rest are strong. (The weakening trend in fuel sales volume might tie in with reducing late night traffic I've noted on my late night quiz run in the last couple of months?) Another interesting one is second hand sales turning positive again after being negative a few years.




I found this interesting about unemployment number:



The combination of the weakest employment data since mid-2015 and the fastest wage gains since June will raise eyebrows, but it probably is not as alarming as it might seem," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The employment data are very erratic and sudden swings, in either direction, are not unusual."

The figures are based on the Labour Force Survey, in which the ONS speaks to about 40,000 households every quarter. That is a very large survey, but it still means the figures are not precise.

The ONS is 95% confident that the figure of a 16,000 fall in unemployment is accurate give or take 81,000. That means that the fall in unemployment is not statistically significant.

For once, somebody comes clean about statistical error in the ILO/LFS numbers. (So what is the error in retail sales figures?) The Claimant Count has much less error and that has been rising since January, which ties in roughly with the number of people getting into debt distress, which has been rising since autumn 2015 - and interest rates have now started rising. This bull market is getting very old. Tread warily.

[skinny] 15/12/2016 09:33

GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.2% 1.8%

[mrphil] 15/12/2016 09:23

Guess you're probably right blueliner.

This months SIPP contribution has been invested during this week so let's see what that's done for the figures. Due to get the proceeds from CRX any day now too, and that should give the SIPP a boost of around 1% on its own!

[blueliner] 15/12/2016 08:43

Morning Mr P, could it be Janet Yellen.

[mrphil] 15/12/2016 08:41

Morning All.

I see anything to do with utilities or energy is well down this morning, who's said something?

[blueliner] 14/12/2016 20:01

-0.14% today.

Worst value fallers : CSN & IGR -1.5%, BA. -1.4%.

Highest value riser : SDV +2.5%.

Cracking day for weather, it was our annual 'sportsmans' Christmas lunch so seemed unreal in such spring like conditions.

[aleman] 14/12/2016 17:47

Christmas retail trend weakening in USA?



Bad results from yet another US retailer. LFL down 4.6%.

[mrphil] 14/12/2016 17:43

Welcome aboard with SSE Aleman, my second biggest individual holding in the SIPP!

I see a nice chunky dividend from DX. arrived in my HL account yesterday :-)

A high yesterday of 11.5°C dropping to 7.8°C last night. Lovely sunny day today but I don't think we saw much above 10°C

[deanforester] 14/12/2016 17:36

I'm down -0.369% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.278%).

Worst falls: INDV -2.78%, SMDS -2.56% and S32 -2.24%.

Best rises: WMH and IMI, both +1.29% and BT.A +1.17%.

Is the Santa rally petering out? 10 trading days left this year.

+4°C this morning, misty to start but it cleared very quickly before the sunrise had taken effect. Maybe 8 or 9°C the maximum.

DF

[aleman] 14/12/2016 17:35

+0.1%. I bought a few SSE this week. They should hold up okay in a recession. KCOM might be worth a look for the same reason.


A warm night around 7C led to a 10.3C high in sunshine weakened by thin high cloud. It was strangely misty and murky in places driving around - like fog not quite burned off - despite being very bright generally. There was not enough power in the near-soltice sun to dry things up today so it's all been srill rather damp.

Widespread snows forecasted in unusual places the week before Christmas - Mexico/Texas, Morocco and Syria, for instance. Northern Britain could get some more snow in about a week.



US temperatures are forecasted to get below -30C over a widespread area at the weekend so -35C or -40C might be possible around Wyoming/North Dakota/Wisonsin - and some would say winter has not even started yet.

[aleman] 14/12/2016 17:08

1st Amazon drone delivery in UK.



There are a few shares having a surprisingly hard time. The recruitment agency falls seem undertandable now that employment trends are deteriorating. Have you seen BMS, though? Shipping rates are supposedly improving yet it is getting hammered. I'd be really tempted if I were not nervous about what a severe recession might do to it - so I'll keep watching for now.

[mrphil] 14/12/2016 16:57

KCOM seem to be having a hard time of it Skinny.

Not such a good day today, the SIPP fell -0.25% with biggest fallers DC., SSE & SPD and then -0.3% for the pot due to DC., RR. & LGEN

Nice to have seen the sunshine for most of the day today.

I see we have the second episode of In Plain Sight but we haven't watched the first one yet so not sure if it's any good. Will probably settle down to Henry's wives again as that was quite interesting last week.

[skinny] 14/12/2016 16:55

My SIPP finished up 0.12%.

A sunny day @13°.

[skinny] 14/12/2016 15:55

KCOM continues its decline since the last results - the dividend commitment is at least 6.00 pence per annum for current and next financial year.

[aleman] 14/12/2016 10:59

Bad trends in employment. Working age people in jobs FELL 29k in latest 3 months as those over 65 working rose 23k. 16-17 year olds working fell sharply by 1.3% in the quarter. Economically active 16-17 year olds plummetted by 8.0%. Unemployed fell 15k but inactives rose 104k! Full time jobs fell 51k while part time rose 46k. The rolling 3 month employment rate has fallen for 3 consecutive months. (Fig 3). Total hours worked fell sharply last month and was th elowest for 10 months (Fig 7). Unseasonally adjusted unemplyment rose. Claimant count rise again and has been rising for 9 months (since before Brexit - I was already picking up signs of a slowing conomy before then). The 809k claimant figure was up 23.5k on a year earlier. Redundancies were up a touch and vacancies fell last month. Inactive but wanting a job rose 30k. Bonus pay growth has dropped to virtually zero from double figures last year. Make no mistake, these numbers were bad as they seem to indicate a corner has been turned.

[mrphil] 14/12/2016 10:50

Usual stupid reaction to decent results from DC. this morning.

[skinny] 14/12/2016 09:32

GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% 2.3% 2.3%

GBP Claimant Count Change 2.4K 6.2K 9.8K

GBP Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%