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[hindsight] 16/9/2022 17:56

At the risk of stating the obvious, its all on the gas curve me thinks and that is in a big way down to Ukraine outcome effect on Russia leadership, 1917 mk2 , etc

[p1nkfish] 16/9/2022 17:08

p/e compression indeed, some will see that and "e" fall too, big double whammy.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2022 16:22

I think the BoE might (/should).

Thought some comments in here very interesting:
[...] (Edit - can't link, but copy/pasted the interesting bit).


Adobe down 24% in 5 days, on top of the falls [-40% from high] quoted from May 2022, and I thought this nailed it [from May]:


"In a note to investors in February, Richard de Lisle of the value-focused VT De Lisle America fund explained why a quality company such as Adobe looked susceptible to a further re-rating, even though its fundamentals looked “fantasticR21;.

“It has grown earnings at 19% on average for a decade and no doubt will keep going forever,” he explained.

“The stock is off from $700 to $500 [now $400], so it’s all priced in, right? Nope, it’s still on 50x trailing P/E [price-to-earnings], and in the 1980s you could get a 19% grower for 20x trailing. But the 1980s is where we’ve just referenced a 7.5% inflation rate.

“Sounds like a lot more P/E multiple falling still to be done here for the next few years. Earnings of more than 19% a year is a double every four years, so in four years’ time Adobe could be at the same price but on a trailing P/E of 25x if it can keep the good times rolling on.

“Not a bad outcome, but maybe not where you want to be?”


To save you looking it up, Adobe is $297 now. Yesterday's -16% on overpaying for an acqn, but I reckon the above comments fit a lot in the US.

[topvest] 16/9/2022 16:07

Next week could be bumpy if the FED and BoE (definitely a follower rather than a leader) have the bravery to go for a 1% and 0.75% raise respectively. Let's see.

[topvest] 16/9/2022 16:06

Yes, all very interesting. I am expecting another leg down in the markets sometime soon. To be honest though, I am slightly confused as to why its not happened already. I guess we could be nearer the bottom than we all thought. US markets still look overvalued though.

[p1nkfish] 16/9/2022 16:05

Dollar earners where most costs are in $ are a little better.
UK HQ, earnings and most costs in $.
Growth area in utilities (it does exist).
Inflation pass through.
Capital light.
Subscription model.
Long contracts.
High switching costs.
Looking towards new global opps as ROW follows NA.
Network effects helping growth rate.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2022 15:55

Indeed. Free money for the brokers when interest rates rise, but hit elsewhere. Banks have the added political angle.

Personally, I don't see many winners in a rising inflation/rising interest rate environment, coupled with a bear market. Dollar earners, so far, but the dollar is approaching bubble territory.

The old staples of utilities and tobacco now too over-geared and politicised. Real chance some of the big water co's could get in trouble IMO.

Some co's will be able to pass on cost increases, but that's to counter cost increases, by definition.. Wages, energy etc will all be on the rise.

No, I want a wider discount on NAS :) We're a long way from the despair stage on equities atm.

[loglorry1] 16/9/2022 15:49

brokers are normally a disaster in bear market. Banks do better with steeper yeild curve but loan defaults can kill them.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2022 15:41

Banks, and share brokers (AJB, HL) ought to do well, but "well" is relative - make easy millions on customer deposits, but hit in other ways.

[loglorry1] 16/9/2022 14:40

I can't think of anything untouched by rates but the extent matters a lot. High quality companies with pricing power should largely pass on cost increases. Companies with lots of cash will earn more on cash deposits. Companies with tangible asset backing should see that asset backing rise. Companies with large pension deficits might see these deficits erased with rising discount rates. Health care or legal claims busiesses not so badly affected.

I can't imagine stuff like MORE gets away but perhaps a lot in the price. I'm sure Mills was well aware that this was around the corner so lets hope he was well paid enough to be well positioned.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2022 13:06

Personally I'd want the discount to widen - know it's large, but always is. These markets haven't knocked it out further yet.

Would also be intrigued to know which industries are "..Unaffected by rising interest and inflation rates".. If you sell something, & employ people, you're affected.

[p1nkfish] 16/9/2022 13:03

It is a relatively safe haven for the patient. Have held for quite a while and certainly won't be selling.

Other point is reference to restart of buybacks - possibly - so some floor on price by the company.

[spectoacc] 16/9/2022 12:37

Expanding @p1nkfish's quote above:


"There is no question that the value is, once again, opening up in equity markets and it is therefore expected that further new investments will be made over the coming months. It will be important to emphasise industries which will be unaffected by rising interest and inflation rates. We do expect the market, as a whole, to weaken further but we would hope to outperform this trend given our conservative balance sheet and the likelihood of further uplifts from our private equity portfolio."

[steve3sandal] 16/9/2022 12:29

Given all the macro stuff going on I consider NAS to be a safe hiding place. I have others too. I’d like to be doing more buys of my own if we get one more down leg from the macro.

[p1nkfish] 16/9/2022 12:16

Release today, comment "We do expect the market, as a whole, to weaken further........"

[18bt] 08/9/2022 07:30

Agreed - very specific skillset with no obvious investing background. But if she is a challenging mindset, hopefullly the diversity of thought as well as gender is increased.

[p1nkfish] 06/9/2022 17:21

Interesting new NED.

[loglorry1] 11/8/2022 11:08

It's proof of pudding time for Renalytx. If they can sell it then it will be worth a fortune. If not the costs and death spiral will kill it. Too late now to reduce costs - it either works or not and if it works these costs will be a drop in the bucket.

I assume Mills has sized his position accordingly.

KidneyIntelXTM is designed to diagnose and improve clinical management of patients with Type II diabetes with fast-progressing kidney disease, in an effort to curtail the estimated $114 billion annual cost1 of chronic and end-stage kidney disease to the United States healthcare system. The diagnostic will use machine learning algorithms to assess the combination of predictive blood-based biomarkers, including sTNFR1, sTNFR2 and KIM1, in combination with electronic health record information, to identify progressive kidney disease. KidneyIntelXTM is being developed in close collaboration with the Mount Sinai Health System.

[c3479z] 11/8/2022 09:40

needs to get a grip on costs at Renx, remuneration is enormous considering the loss-making nature of the operation at present.

[p1nkfish] 10/8/2022 13:23

Focus matters and no matter how good someone is there is a limit to how much a person can focus on at one time.

[loglorry1] 10/8/2022 12:17

Renalytx is a tough one. The upside is enormous if it works as they say it does. It wouldn't surprise me if it came good but having said that the last funding round was a disaster.

[mr roper] 10/8/2022 12:06

He doesn't just hold Renx he's the Chairman. I think he's taken his eye of the ball on that holding for sure. Possibly needs to stick to just running the fund without the extra duties

[p1nkfish] 10/8/2022 11:00

Certainly better than me but with Rockwood + other stuff something will end up taking a back seat.

[loglorry1] 10/8/2022 09:07

I don't think Mills has lost it. He went into this downturn in small-caps holding a lot of cash and USD cash as well. He resisted the temptation to pile into a lot of junk when it was flying up too. The NAV has been hit which would be impossible to avoid given he has to invest in small caps.

I take issue with some of the things he holds. Renalytx with a death spiral for example but I have to trust he knows what he is doing by and large and is much better than I could be in this space.