North Atlantic Smaller C... Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 26/2/2022 13:54

@m_kerr I'm not sure the discount is any bigger than before. Febuary wasn't a great month for NAS companies so I expect NAV is a lower again. Over the longer term though you gotta believe that Mills knows what he's doing or if you don't sell up and move on. His track record certainly shows he does and he has been quite bearish before the sell off when others were pilling into all sorts of rubbish.

[m_kerr] 25/2/2022 16:36

i'm surprised they aren't aggressively buying back shares. i'm aware they have funding commitments to their private equity funds but the discount here is such that they're getting virtually an instant 50% return on any buybacks. ordinarily the main reason this isn't done is you have a fund manager more concerned with maintaining high AUM to charge fees off of, but in fairness, mills has a high shareholding and therefore stands to gain hugely from this (£150m), so i'm surprised it isn't being done.

[spectoacc] 23/2/2022 14:45

They'd had those T Bills for yonks - hopefully sold near the peak, and interesting to know what's been bought (& whether bought pre-Ukraine).

[mw8156] 23/2/2022 11:59

US Treasury bills no longer in the top 10 list having been 7 - 10% of the fund 6 months ago so must have made some investments in the falling markets, hope this works out and we don't end up in recession by the end of this year.

[spectoacc] 22/2/2022 08:55

A far superior CM - Charlie Munger - still going at 98 in fairness.

The great Tony Pidgley left us at 72 mind.

[chillpill] 22/2/2022 08:52

rambutan. Worth noting legends like PS are now in their Seventies..

Not many bright young things coming through on the Fund Management front.

Most fund management cos are about protecting the assets under management for the fees- not gains for clients.

[spectoacc] 22/2/2022 08:49

Let's hope he doesn't age like Putin and start invading, oh I don't know, FCRM.

[chillpill] 22/2/2022 08:42

30% discount to NAV at end of Jan with plenty of cash to take advantages of opportunities. Added a few but been here for over a decade so have enough tucked away.

Also CM isn’t a spring chicken any more.

[rambutan2] 21/2/2022 21:31

topvest, the esteemed Peter Spiller of CGT, who is certainly not a fan of high fees, has held NAS for decades. He says it's a way of accessing private equity and associated skills on the cheap...

[rambutan2] 21/2/2022 21:23

So, nav down approx 5% in Jan:

The Board announces that as at 31 January 2022 the unaudited net asset value per share (excluding current period revenue) under the equity accounting method was 5,846.96p.

The unaudited net asset value per share quoted above differs from that required under IFRS 10, which was adopted by the Company from 1 February 2014 as detailed in its Half Yearly Financial Report for the six months ended 31 July 2014. The unaudited net asset value per share (excluding current period revenue) under IFRS 10 was 5,769.79p.

[topvest] 21/2/2022 18:28

You have to pay for Christopher Mills, but his long-term record has shown that he is well worth the money.

[loglorry1] 19/2/2022 20:26

Holding Oryx means Mills gets to double dip on fees.

[ali47fish] 19/2/2022 17:01

anybody cares to comment whether this is good entry point- big discount but good historical performance. I am intrigued where does it invest apart form the uk;

[m_kerr] 14/2/2022 20:04

anyone know why they hold oryx growth fund which mirrors many of their holdings? it's quite rare to get a trust with this sort of record trading at such a discount.

[loglorry1] 01/2/2022 10:42

Given the drop in UK small caps almost across the board the NAV will have to have dropped a bit. Renalytx is down to 464 from a high of around 1200 for example.

[chillpill] 01/2/2022 08:38

Not sure what the current NAV is but have been accumulating a few more for the bottom drawer.

[spectoacc] 26/1/2022 15:52

Thanks @Spartacus. A few buy-backs to factor in too, but likely within the margin of error.

Perhaps coincidentally, HL has the 12 month average discount at 25.99%.

[spartacus mills] 26/1/2022 15:50

I make the running NAV today to be about £58 down 6% from the Dec 31st number. Implying a discount of c.25% to today's SP

Big Mills portfolio losers in the recent sell off have been the big growth holdings such as Polar, EKF, Renalytix and Oyrx.

Surprisingly good performances from Hargreaves, MJ Gleeson, Odyssean, Circassia and SureServe

My rudimentary model gets a bit less certain at this time of the year because we don’t have much recent details of the holdings below the top 10 – for which we are awaiting the end of year report to Jan 31st which normally surfaces in May.

I would hope that Mills has been in the market over the last couple of days. There is £100m+ cash available so plenty of firepower and perhaps some bargains to be found.

At a 25% discount NAS continues to be outstanding value.

[spectoacc] 26/1/2022 14:13

Wonder what the current NAV is - considering the number of listed holdings, a daily NAV wouldn't go amiss IMO.

Looking for an excuse to buy back in.

[apple53] 30/12/2021 00:20

Pink - you seem to be implying buybacks are already limited (or maybe I misunderstood). Based on the latest waiver, there is still room to repurchase over 1m shares. There continue to be votes against the waiver, but they have been a minority. The team has been working hard for ages (see my posts above) to try to get the naysayers to see sense.
We need to make sure we vote....

[apple53] 30/12/2021 00:10

first sorry for the duplicate post everyone
loglorry - quite a few different points over the 2 posts. Though the latter one was primarily to update on the NAV, and ask if Spartacus has an uptodate guesstimate.
Yes the FTSE small cap fell almost as much in November. And ex Renalytix NAS outperformed.

At first sight it's quite hard to square Mills' immense bullishness on a lot of his holdings with his cautious view and holding lots of cash. However, I think I can broadly defend a consistency - most of the names he mentioned on the recent call are small or very small and there is a limit to how much cash NAS can be deploy in them. If asked, he would probably say it is harder to find value among the mid-cap names that would tend to be larger holdings. And of course he is making a general remark about the UK market (and beyond) as a whole.

[p1nkfish] 27/12/2021 11:27

Posted the below on Fulcrum pbb. Harwood not covered themselves in glory on that one so far.

"Just some thoughts.

A) obviously an attempt at buy and build in MAP and any buy and build is always risky.

B) debt risk as they mention increasing it, *optimised", or something along those lines. See C).

C) might optimised debt on cash generative assets be via a CLN (convertible loan notes) and big holders might love that. Revolving credit facility via bank, investment debt via CLN arrangement, "optimised". Optimised for whom? Debt holders get preferential treatment on any liquidation risk. Bayford & Harwood offering debt would give them income, some protection and equity upside over time - could take quite a while? Very optimised especially as rates are so low currently and there is cash waiting to be allocated. Tax on profit due to rise to 25% April 2023 onwards. Debt offered by large equity owners squares more than one circle. "optimised".

D) for now share price appreciation might not be the main target of the large holders - interest income via offering debt might be. Think about that, especially if pis are locked out of offering debt. I don't think Bayford & Harwood are necessarily playing the same game with the same goal as ordinary pis. They have incentives that could be outside of near time equity value increases via share price.

E) The other point is what about post, about, January 12th. The new shares hit the market and any upside will be limited as pis look to take some cash out on any increase.

F) In fact upside might be limited until both the acquisitions are clarified (uncertainty) and the debt level and type made clear. Both are big unknowns.

Just thoughts, dyor etc. Imho.

Convertible loan notes make sense for the large holders and Harwood are clever.
Whatever happens, debt is due to increase according to the rns release and I don't see why the bank should benefit."

[p1nkfish] 27/12/2021 09:55

Would rather ride it out here than take a chance of exiting and not getting back in lower or even the same price. This has become a keeper for me having held quite a while. £40 -£50 is probably the range barring ability to increase buybacks or some other interesting event in the portfolio.

[p1nkfish] 27/12/2021 09:50

Posts 272,3,4 from August is point we have arrived at and mentioned in the last set of results. Buyback limitations will hinder supporting the share price

Mills chance to allocate more capital will come and might be as a result of US tightening feeding through into a period of greater volatility and weakness.

[loglorry1] 27/12/2021 08:55

A 4% drop on NAV is probably a big out performance against the small/mid cap index. It will be lower for the end of December too. I'm not sure what your point is? Mills thinks stock prices have run up too much which is why he holds a lot of cash and has been buying back stock.

As far as I can tell he is performing well in a soft market.