Niox Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 31/5/2024 15:37

Holding up well since Griffiths reduced another 5% nearly. I think he reduced the day before it went ex div. Pretty impressive you can sell that many without denting the share price too much.He still holds 18%, about the same as Harwood. They have made a few million. Worth holding for the potential takeover and possible extra special dividend. Last year it paid for my flight to Australia. Not sure where to go this winter!

[earwacks] 22/5/2024 09:42

Slightly strange that we are at house brokers target price again. Fairly quiet Agm announcement but inline with management expectations and a couple of million up on same time last year (not forgetting they paid out 10 million special dividend, so actually nearer 12 million up on last year!) but for the special dividend their cash position would be up over 30 per cent! Should get AGM result later today. Ex dividend tomorrow if motion carried. Maybe a little more about possible further special. Probably more news to come in July update regarding product developments. All resolutions passed ex div tomorrow, paid June 24th

[edwardt] 22/5/2024 09:16

old warren said be prepared to pay a fair price for a good business. time will see you right. this one is not 'cheap' but is certainly priced fairly.

[badday] 22/5/2024 07:13

Short and sweet, and bowling along nicely.



Trading Update

We are pleased to report that our business has continued to perform strongly in the year to date, in line with management expectations.

In January 2024, NIOX settled returns claims amounting to £0.4m in relation to the discontinued business. The unaudited cash balance as at 30 April 2024 was £23.7m (31 December 2023: £19.9m), with no bank borrowings.

NIOX expects to give a trading update in relation to the six months ended 30 June 2024 around the middle of July.

[earwacks] 20/5/2024 19:32

Indeed we do. Will be interesting how the first four months compared to last year which turned in a whopping 21 percent rise. I would hope there would be a fair amount of news behind the recent steady rise.

[badday] 20/5/2024 18:57

I take it we get a trading update on Wednesday?

[earwacks] 12/5/2024 13:22

Buying volumes have been building for sometime after the fairly substantial pull back last autumn. Couldnt put my finger on one particular thing. Progress seems to be coming from a few direction, not least what to do with the mounting cash pile, and recognition of available options

[edwardt] 11/5/2024 09:46

Seems we are not alone buying here . The copd angle was my reasoning to add - let's see what happens...

[earwacks] 09/5/2024 04:08

Year end they were back to nearly 20 million cash. End of feb they had 22.5 million. They have another 4.4 million dollars from Beyond air in August with up to 6 million dollars in royalties there after. They have 2 million spend on thr development of pro Niox this year. I think Mills thought they would finish the year with 30 million. Looks a bit conservative to me. I think they can do that after dividends the way they are going. That’s a shed load of money, over 10 percent of Market cap in cash generation per year!

[thedudie] 08/5/2024 20:56

The special divi was announced at start of June last year about 6 weeks before the July trading statement.

Who knows they might have better things to do with the money this year - I am happy either way.

[earwacks] 08/5/2024 16:55

TU July 18th last year. I guess we won’t hear about another special dividend until then

[thedudie] 08/5/2024 16:36

Odd ... AGM was announced to be on the 22nd May and there is usually a trading update then.

[edwardt] 08/5/2024 15:23

Data released on 17th apparently...

[earwacks] 03/5/2024 11:11

Thanks Ram. Yes of course mills was on the Bioquel board too. He certainly knows his onions.

[rambutan2] 03/5/2024 04:33

earwacks, Ian Johnson was persuaded to take the hot seat by Chris Mills.

[johnyee 7] 02/5/2024 10:37

Some big trades today

[earwacks] 02/5/2024 08:37

Have been delving further back into Circassia history. This is looking one of the more bizar Aim stories and there have been many. Apparently cir floated at £3.60 back in the day. Something to do with cat allergies! Thats me. My partner has two. Nightmare, but we also have a dog to defend me. Anyway obviously cir was a complete crackpot company under old management and got badly tangled up with Astra. Guess who came out on top? However Ian Johnson, like Chris Mills I clocked when he took Bioquel on a very successful journey about the same time as Cir were in their early days. Quite how Johnson came to Cir to take the reigns I’m not sure, but he certainly worked his magic on it. Just watched an old video of Andy Brough (schroders)talking about how he always gets interested when he hears Chris Mills is involved on the board of a biotech. I remember Mills saying all the serious money had been made on Niox when it was 50p, and it couldnt make 60p under its own steam, inferring a buyout I guess. It went on up to 75p under its own steam with a little help from a special dividend payout. Subsequently it fell back a bit. People keep saying its expensive, but I feel that is only when looking at current valuations. I remember valuations in companies being a lot higher than this pre Covid. Recently Niox have offered employees a 3 year savings plan for shares at 51p which I find curious. In light of recent developments with COPD, the upgrading of a new FeNo diagnostic instrument (the old one having a 5 year max shelf life limit) and the development of a home diagnostic kit, I find myself thinking these shares are bloody cheap still. Incidentally Mills is on the board of EKF (I have a smaller portion) and has made two £100,000 this year, one very recently when they announced results which as expected were not great. But they make enzymes! Or are trying to. He also has connections with Vrci and Renx, (kidney diagnostics) both of which have come off the boil a bit. Tempted for a small position, but they would definitely stretch my risk appetite. And why not just stick with what you know, Niox!

[earwacks] 01/5/2024 18:36

They say averaging up is always better than averaging down. I dipped in at 27p, adding a shed load at 34 and in the 40s. I think not in the 50s for some reason and 3 more purchases in the 60s. Have thought about it, but would have to sell something. Tempted. Always remember the story about Soros chastising one of his team boasting about what a great trade he had done, Soros just said why the hell didn’t you go all in! I agree there are at least two possible game changers to add to this. This could just be the tip of the iceberg. Well done

[edwardt] 01/5/2024 14:47

added a few. probably the kiss of death. however the potential for copd could be a game changer.

[edwardt] 30/4/2024 09:23

we all have some duffers - if we don't admit to them, we are liars!

[earwacks] 30/4/2024 08:58

Edward. Sounds fantastic. If successful that doubly underestimates the potential for Niox. Even Chris Mills seems to have not understood Niox. I think it was last year he commented Niox couldn’t reach 60p under its own steam! It smashed through that in a couple of months. He has been very bullish and it was him that flagged up the humongous tax credit. Personally I thought a target by one broker of £1.20 under its own steam was not pie in the sky considering 95 percent of their market is up for grabs. Requires replacing every 5 years depending on usage. Mills did point out this is a razor blade stock. Sounds like they have also reinvented another Gillette. dividend declared for next months and possibly another special on the cards. Have to admit this is now about a third of my portfolio and am not interested in top slicing. I have a few duffers in my portfolio but would rather kick them out frankly. My best pick since Arm holdings. Gl

[edwardt] 30/4/2024 08:36

numis upgrade to buy today referencing the copd opportunity as a reason

[earwacks] 27/4/2024 15:19

Astra dissolved their partnership with Circassia over Tudorza and Duklar inhaler for COPD.Astra retained commercial rights in consideration of 150 million dollar debt and retained 18 percent of Circassia, now Niox. Astra have since offloaded this product. Not sure how successful it has been. Probably nothing like the FeNo tester. What Niox have is the development of the best Asthma diagnostic device and 600 million tax credit for the Circassia debacle. Meaning they will never pay tax on their very cash generative device. The tax credit is also transferable which makes it an added asset to their £270 million market cap. The directors are probably nearing retirement. They have built a highly profitable business from the wreckage of Circassia, making it a market leader in its field, but still only tapping 5 percent of possible world market. Added to that they are developing a domestic kit, which if successful will probably appeal to a us pharma giant, not necessarily just Astra, who as you say may not be interested as it is Gsk that have recently purchased a company that have developed an asthma drug. Potential for Niox is pretty big and are at an interesting stage where they might need some serious gearing up to reach potential global markets, whilst having converted themselves into a growing cash machine. Although expensive on last years results I don’t think forecasters have quite got their head around the potential of Niox yet

[rambutan2] 26/4/2024 20:54

Too lazy to dig back, but I'm sure Astra are there from some deal done year's ago under the previous, Woodford backed, management. Nothing to do with the current set up. Have prob forgotten they own the shares as it's such a piddling amount on their balance sheet.