Never researched this one until today. Looks a nice little company but there seems to be plenty of competition. Anything special about the NIOX kit that all the others can't do? Gross margin most recently 72%. Is that defendable?
Just Google "feno testing equipment" to see some competitors. |
 I thought so too. Not sure why Griffith has been so persistently selling down. Presumably has better opportunities. I know he has been building a stake in Dlar this year. I switched to Renx, Vrci and topped up in Cog, all up over 30 percent over Christmas period. I think Niox is ok but the vaccination and Griffiths sell off spooked me a bit, but mostly I see better opportunities in Renx particularly and had no spare cash. Niox should be ok with the updated FeNox and home kit development, but they are just paying back the cash they make to shareholders for the two years with no real goal for development in any other area. Could get bought out, but quite a risk as all their eggs in one basket. Unlikely there will be a total cure for asthma for a while ye, so the dividends should flow, but not sure how strong growth will be. How much of the market will the home kit test be and will it impact on the the surgery test? I don’t know really. Has far to big a holding and decided I needed to get much more diversified from five holdings 60 percent of which was in Niox. Obviously still plenty of demand for their shares as had no problem selling.gl |
Yikes - thought you would be in for long haul! |
And today Announcement that R Griffith has slice another couple of percent down to 10.68 percent but now sold off 66 percent of his holding. Less confident about a takeover and maybe not so much upside left. Great company and well run. Tricky one. I’m out. Good luck |
Director bnbs some shares into ISAs yesterday evening |
bmj quotes updated asthma new UK diagnosis recommendations, 'step change' in diagnosis and management.
FeNO or blood eosinophils, only in adults, as a first line but commentators say access to FeNO is patchy in the country and even in primary care to FEV1/spirometry which I think was recommended as a repeat test twice a day over a fortnight in those whose diagnosis was in doubt or evidence of reversibility of the airway obstruction with bronchodilators. |
Edward. That did cross my mind. However I think we might have seen a crash by now. If people are selling some one is buying. This is not a cure. It is part of the management of asthma and I would assume sufferers will still need monitoring and diagnostics. Hence the development of the home kit. This might actually lead to an increase in demand. I could be completely wrong but there have been other asthma treatment discoveries. I think Glaxo or Astra have one. It appears to me that there are still plenty of buyers at the moment. One thing is clear FeNo testing rules out unnecessary treatment. Therefore can rule out vaccination requirement.
The other thing is this vaccination still has to clear phase 3 trials . There might be some nervousness in the market but I think that’s had more to do with the liquidity of Niox shares. Clearly some are selling but seems to be plenty of support at the moment.
As Paul Scott pointed out some fund managers are forced sellers because of redemptions. They probably can’t sell assets they would like to sell so have to part with stock that people want. Think we went through this same time last year when the stock went down to 57p. Hopefully the update in January will prove this theory! Obviously would have been better to duck the tender offer and sell in the 70s. It’s the possibility of a bid that keeps us here and also the overall plan to majorly upscale the business. Still plenty to look forward to. This had been a year of consolidation and development. Next year will bare more fruits and improve the life of this debilitating disease through improved management and more accurate diagnosis |
Surely that is not good for niox! |
More amazing is the announcement of the first new asthma drug in 50 years. A vaccine that prevents the body’s immune system over reacting causing the asthma attacks. Sounds an absolute game changer hopefully for sufferers and enable them to really get on top of this |
hxxps://www.nice.org.uk/news/articles/new-joint-guideline-recommends-prescribing-combination-treatments-for-people-with-newly-diagnosed-asthma |
What announcement? |
Ok. Yes NICE announcement! |
NiCE announcement |
Amazing 1 automatic share trade @63.2 drops the price several hundred thousand, but no amount of buys of 250,000 moves the Sp a jot |
Clearly there has been some selling yesterday but quite a few buying back in presumably re-investing winnings. I fully intend to do the same. Just a question of timing. We won’t get another TU update till late January. A lot depends on what mr Griffiths and co do. I think there will be plenty of appetite even if they do offload a few more. Singer have reinstated their buy recommendation even though not increasing revenue upgrade but they have increased the EBITDA ad raised share price target siting further payouts as they accumulate cash again. 5 brokers have targets in a range of 69-91p. The good thing is some kind of dividend or payout is pretty certain plus we don’t yet know how the new upgraded version will sell. They are going to push sales and hoping to grow substantially in the USA. Then there will hopefully be further updates on home test developments. I’m not entirely convinced by Mills suggesting most of the money has been made here. It has more than doubled from its low, but I can see a buyout price in excess of £1.00 per share, although unfortunately probably not Astra (they could buy this with a days revenue possibly). Wallet investor have a 5 year target of £2.67!Maybe many stocks can outstrip that. In the meantime it is definitely a core holding and nice little earner with a 5 percent annual return. GL |
Thanks for that. i agree, an excellent way to reward shareholder. I topped up my holding when it was announced. |
Yes capital gain. Smart move rewarding shareholders but retaining value in the company rather than a straight cash hand out. |
You've effectively sold some of your shares to the company at 80p so I'd have thought it's a capital gain. If it were a special dividend, then it would be income. |
I have received the money from the tender offer today. Does any poster know how it should be classed for tax purpose ie dividend or capital gain. |
Payment by October 22. Slight over application to the tender by around 4 million shares. I would imagine mostly fund managers. Looks like everyone took part in tender including directors and major shareholders. Now will we see a rush to exit. May provide an excellent opportunity to top up. I suppose as Astra Zenica took part maybe rules them out for possible takeover. I think their holding is mostly a hangover from the Circassia debacle.
Mugs game trying to predict! Ultimately this looks a great company now and for the future. Much appreciate the buyback at a premium |
Meeting for tender resolution. 276000 for 3800 against. I can understand the odd 1 or 2 voting against, but nearly 4,000 seems a bit odd. Perhaps it was only 1 or 2 with a lot of voting rights. Would love to know their reasons for not want a premium on a small portion of their shares, especially since 10 million will be held in treasury and the rest cancelled. Looked a no brainer to me and an excellent way of offloading un needed cash pile. It returns value to the company and rewards long term investors handsomely and will reward new investors certainly over the next 2 years. Not saying I would buy anymore right now. See how the dust settles after the payout. |
O good Jimmy. I see the cut off date is actually oct 15th. I think most people have the same plan to reinvest at a lower price. Be interesting to see how that works out. I will probably keep the cash for a bit to see how the share price settles. Don’t think It needs to be rushed reinvesting as the home test is still a way off production, but a possible takeout is always on the cards. In the meantime we keep getting a hefty wedge of the increasing cash generation |
Thanks Earwacks - Messaged HL and they sent me over the form and completed. |
Jimmy . You should have had a letter and form from your broker inviting you to elect to tender roughly 6.2 per cent of your holding. You have I think till October 17th to return completed form to your broker. About 10 days to go. No panic but sort asap. You can opt to nothing in which case you keep all your shares an if it goes up over 80p in the meantime will be very chuffed S unlikely as that is to happen. It was actually the house broker target 80p up from 72p. Also the tender is still to be voted for. |
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