Niox Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 02/12/2024 19:40

Edward. That did cross my mind. However I think we might have seen a crash by now. If people are selling some one is buying. This is not a cure. It is part of the management of asthma and I would assume sufferers will still need monitoring and diagnostics. Hence the development of the home kit. This might actually lead to an increase in demand. I could be completely wrong but there have been other asthma treatment discoveries. I think Glaxo or Astra have one. It appears to me that there are still plenty of buyers at the moment. One thing is clear FeNo testing rules out unnecessary treatment. Therefore can rule out vaccination requirement.
The other thing is this vaccination still has to clear phase 3 trials . There might be some nervousness in the market but I think that’s had more to do with the liquidity of Niox shares. Clearly some are selling but seems to be plenty of support at the moment.
As Paul Scott pointed out some fund managers are forced sellers because of redemptions. They probably can’t sell assets they would like to sell so have to part with stock that people want. Think we went through this same time last year when the stock went down to 57p. Hopefully the update in January will prove this theory! Obviously would have been better to duck the tender offer and sell in the 70s. It’s the possibility of a bid that keeps us here and also the overall plan to majorly upscale the business. Still plenty to look forward to. This had been a year of consolidation and development. Next year will bare more fruits and improve the life of this debilitating disease through improved management and more accurate diagnosis

[edwardt] 02/12/2024 19:09

Surely that is not good for niox!

[earwacks] 28/11/2024 10:23

More amazing is the announcement of the first new asthma drug in 50 years. A vaccine that prevents the body’s immune system over reacting causing the asthma attacks. Sounds an absolute game changer hopefully for sufferers and enable them to really get on top of this

[jimmywilson612] 28/11/2024 09:58

hxxps://www.nice.org.uk/news/articles/new-joint-guideline-recommends-prescribing-combination-treatments-for-people-with-newly-diagnosed-asthma

[phowdo] 28/11/2024 09:52

What announcement?

[earwacks] 27/11/2024 20:35

Ok. Yes NICE announcement!

[edwardt] 27/11/2024 19:05

NiCE announcement

[earwacks] 08/11/2024 15:27

Amazing 1 automatic share trade @63.2 drops the price several hundred thousand, but no amount of buys of 250,000 moves the Sp a jot

[earwacks] 23/10/2024 10:45

Clearly there has been some selling yesterday but quite a few buying back in presumably re-investing winnings. I fully intend to do the same. Just a question of timing. We won’t get another TU update till late January. A lot depends on what mr Griffiths and co do. I think there will be plenty of appetite even if they do offload a few more. Singer have reinstated their buy recommendation even though not increasing revenue upgrade but they have increased the EBITDA ad raised share price target siting further payouts as they accumulate cash again. 5 brokers have targets in a range of 69-91p. The good thing is some kind of dividend or payout is pretty certain plus we don’t yet know how the new upgraded version will sell. They are going to push sales and hoping to grow substantially in the USA. Then there will hopefully be further updates on home test developments. I’m not entirely convinced by Mills suggesting most of the money has been made here. It has more than doubled from its low, but I can see a buyout price in excess of £1.00 per share, although unfortunately probably not Astra (they could buy this with a days revenue possibly). Wallet investor have a 5 year target of £2.67!Maybe many stocks can outstrip that. In the meantime it is definitely a core holding and nice little earner with a 5 percent annual return. GL

[ricatcoatham] 23/10/2024 06:34

Thanks for that. i agree, an excellent way to reward shareholder. I topped up my holding when it was announced.

[earwacks] 22/10/2024 21:17

Yes capital gain. Smart move rewarding shareholders but retaining value in the company rather than a straight cash hand out.

[wjccghcc] 22/10/2024 18:17

You've effectively sold some of your shares to the company at 80p so I'd have thought it's a capital gain. If it were a special dividend, then it would be income.

[ricatcoatham] 22/10/2024 16:08

I have received the money from the tender offer today. Does any poster know how it should be classed for tax purpose ie dividend or capital gain.

[earwacks] 17/10/2024 06:40

Payment by October 22. Slight over application to the tender by around 4 million shares. I would imagine mostly fund managers. Looks like everyone took part in tender including directors and major shareholders. Now will we see a rush to exit. May provide an excellent opportunity to top up. I suppose as Astra Zenica took part maybe rules them out for possible takeover. I think their holding is mostly a hangover from the Circassia debacle.
Mugs game trying to predict! Ultimately this looks a great company now and for the future. Much appreciate the buyback at a premium

[earwacks] 16/10/2024 13:07

Meeting for tender resolution. 276000 for 3800 against. I can understand the odd 1 or 2 voting against, but nearly 4,000 seems a bit odd. Perhaps it was only 1 or 2 with a lot of voting rights. Would love to know their reasons for not want a premium on a small portion of their shares, especially since 10 million will be held in treasury and the rest cancelled. Looked a no brainer to me and an excellent way of offloading un needed cash pile. It returns value to the company and rewards long term investors handsomely and will reward new investors certainly over the next 2 years. Not saying I would buy anymore right now. See how the dust settles after the payout.

[earwacks] 08/10/2024 15:06

O good Jimmy. I see the cut off date is actually oct 15th. I think most people have the same plan to reinvest at a lower price. Be interesting to see how that works out. I will probably keep the cash for a bit to see how the share price settles. Don’t think It needs to be rushed reinvesting as the home test is still a way off production, but a possible takeout is always on the cards. In the meantime we keep getting a hefty wedge of the increasing cash generation

[jimmywilson612] 08/10/2024 13:20

Thanks Earwacks - Messaged HL and they sent me over the form and completed.

[earwacks] 07/10/2024 16:51

Jimmy . You should have had a letter and form from your broker inviting you to elect to tender roughly 6.2 per cent of your holding. You have I think till October 17th to return completed form to your broker. About 10 days to go. No panic but sort asap. You can opt to nothing in which case you keep all your shares an if it goes up over 80p in the meantime will be very chuffed S unlikely as that is to happen. It was actually the house broker target 80p up from 72p. Also the tender is still to be voted for.

[jimmywilson612] 07/10/2024 14:56

Is the option open to now go for the tender? I haven't seen anything on this through HL?

Reading the Tender document - it seems its now the time to select your preference?

[muffster] 04/10/2024 13:19

So go for tender, wait for terrible budget then buy back cheaper?

[earwacks] 26/9/2024 14:48

Thanks Dudie. I was about to correct that myself. I thought they said they currently had 23 million and were paying back 21 million to shareholders. Maybe hadn’t accounted for Beyond Air settlement. I will probably tender enough for a couple of air fares and reinvest back in if it’s still around 70p and Reeves hasn’t Liz Trussed the market again

[thedudie] 26/9/2024 14:12

They say they will be down to £6m in cash if fully subscribed (as of Sept 24th) - That is obviously growing monthly at the moment as well as you point out. Don't forget post-period end they had the Beyond Air settlement.

[earwacks] 26/9/2024 13:52

October 17th is the deadline. You must still be invested at that date to qualify. Have received letter today about offer. Looks like we have to work out the 6.2% of holding ourselves! It does say approx. My maths is a bit dodgy to be honest. Will definitely be approximate. They do seem to be cutting it to the bone. Will have £2 million cash balance left if the whole entitlement is taken. They are pulling in over £1 million a month so should be good for another divi next July, if it hasn't been bought out. Must be a chance of re investing below 80p I would think.