Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 04/3/2024 14:03

Is the dividend covered. I'm not sure? It's clearly covered now as NESF hedged forward power pricing for this year and next at really good rates. But going forward once they fall off is it covered? It looks a bit open to question to me.

And covering the dividend means they are eating their own assets, not putting anything aside to replace anything.

[shareideas1] 29/2/2024 17:51

Certainly explains the move from 100 to 75p... question near term is where they will stop... have to disclose each time they pass a round % ownership number...

[fordtin] 29/2/2024 17:11

Artemis dropped below 10% yesterday.




Wonder if they were also responsible for today's closing volume.

[yump] 29/2/2024 14:48

To be fair it was only 2p of enthusiasm and that might actually have bedn the mm’s trying it on very mildly !

[marktime1231] 29/2/2024 13:19

Enthusiasm based on the rns didn't last long, I wonder instead if appreciation will grow over time that the excellent dividend remains well covered, NAV is clinging on, etc. A declining future power price outlook is balanced by reducing inflation?

[tag57] 29/2/2024 12:19

Masurenguy, I think it may take more than a few pence on NAV to get this share price moving up. Needs a change in sentiment for the whole sector. Hopefully this will come with the expected central bank rate course later this year. I am already fully loaded otherwise would be looking to invest further at this yield taking into account management expects to have the divi fully covered on an ongoing basis.

[tag57] 29/2/2024 08:13

Seemed a decent update to me, unfortunately my av purchase price is above £1+ but continue to reinvest the divi at these prices.
Looks like we should expect further capital recycling in the next month or two - from Chair “ Our Capital Recycling Programme is proceeding as planned and we expect to update the market in short order”

[tuftymatt] 29/2/2024 08:03

Yeah this and the share price of other renewables will wake up at some point this year.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[rambutan2] 26/2/2024 23:00

Three interesting overviews of relevant stuff:

[neilyb675] 26/2/2024 13:49

75.10 - 75.40 (GBX) at 13:26:57
on Market (LSE)

[tag57] 26/2/2024 12:32

RoddyB - considering the planned capital recycling plan I would have thought they would prefer to reduce debt first before BB.
The sale process is taking some time, rightfully so, as we are in no rush to sell to the first cheap bid. If by the end of 2024 and we are no further forward then maybe the NAV might be considered too high or maybe the sector is just unloved at this time.
Either way as long as NESF keep generating their income and grow/ maintain the divi I will be happy to compound it at its current yield.

[roddyb] 26/2/2024 09:37

I think we need to start share buybacks soon as the discount to NAV is too good to miss. If the div has 1.3 cover, could we justify the 0.3 being used for buybacks? Or,is the fact that none of our assets that are being currently marketed have found a buyer putting management off as they no longer believe the NAV value and Mr Market has been right all along?

[vas007] 23/2/2024 10:11

Tag57 thanks sharing. This is the exact advice I was given with global assets and some sound figures also recently increased dividends as evidence .

[tag57] 23/2/2024 09:44

Rambutan, thank you for the link. A good podcast I have now signed up to.
Shows the importance of focussing on the contracts the alt energy fund has in place and something I will definitely pay more attention to in the future.
I have too much invested in NESF and taken a substantial paper loss over the last 18 months although this share price reduction is certainly not solely restricted to this fund. I am hopeful that as the BOE reduce interest rates the share price will come back to at least cover my net purchase cost (investment - divi) but shall have to see.
At least I continue to get paid while I wait.

[rambutan2] 22/2/2024 21:15

I thought the latest episode, The New Value of Green Power and PPAs, well worth a listen. And perhaps a warning to some who haven't quite appreciated the complexity and wide possible outcomes of the mkt they are investing in.

[vas007] 22/2/2024 17:00

I was considering selling half , buying in at 109 for something else , but speaking to a major player a friend, was told this has recently only just gone out favour but is a solid stock making yields/ gains and should recover well .

[chucko1] 21/2/2024 09:55

But as compared with other ITs which have also moved notably on the back of rates expectations, this one has moved a lot more either way. It goes beyond the single factor (or at least significant principal factor) of rates expectations.

.. or not, and it's just crazy, but that is not helpful.

[tag57] 20/2/2024 23:17

My point was that there isn’t anything specific other than sentiment.
Interest rates haven’t changed but expectations have. The run up in December was off the back of the expected early rate cuts, which then reversed due to the messaging from the BOE.
Anyway NESF has traded at a lower premium or higher discount than peers for the last year or two - as long as I have been invested.

[roddyb] 20/2/2024 23:06

I re-read the statements from the board and the paid-for analyst report. Both say that the effect of higher interest rates is offset by the reduce cost of replacement panels and general price reductions of solar equipment (code for Chinese dumping, I believe).

The dividend is covered by 1.3

We have preference shares that form the base of our funding, we can repay it with our cash from about 4 pieces of asset sales. Asset prices seem better than expected given the evidence of the January 2024 sales to Greencoat.

Honestly, I am looking for The Reason for this falls and I cannot see it?

[chucko1] 20/2/2024 22:48

It's 5% battery at most. Interest rates have not changed that much since mid/late December. This has collapsed from a spikey 94p to 73.3p. Normally, a specific change in its fortunes would be needed for such a change. Unless it's simply the ongoing issue of more sellers than buyers, including a needy seller who is in a bind for some reason or another.

[tag57] 20/2/2024 17:27

Roddy, probably a mix of higher interest rates, reduced confidence in interest rate cuts, reduced UK energy prices, lower confidence in renewable energy (esp batteries), the list goes on.
At least we aren’t solely a battery reit relying on the UK, although not much better.

[roddyb] 20/2/2024 16:05

That is one hell of a slide between Xmas and mid-Feb - based on what? Not a lot changed in that period.

[neilyb675] 19/2/2024 14:46

73.40 - 73.90 (GBX) at 14:38:15
on Market (LSE)

[yump] 19/2/2024 08:59

Eek - careful what you wish for ! I believe the temperature gradient (only a few degrees) that drives the gulf stream, has been decreasing, as a result of arctic warming.

[keith95] 17/2/2024 21:10

"which it sold to one of NextEnergy's own closed-ended private funds"

From what I can gather:

NextPower UK ESG Fund ....

.. has done a deal with the post Brexit UK investment bank .. so presumably at better rates .. makes sense .... everyone wins expect the tax payer ;)

"The UK Infrastructure Bank has today confirmed its first private sector deal, which helps catalyse NextEnergy Capital’s £500m subsidy-free solar fund."

.. where the new solar installations are subsidy free ... that NESF makes a point of mentioning at some lengths in its annual reports.


Warmer winter weather, gas storage builds, higher interest rates, falling prices.

Just ask the Gulf stream to take a year or two off heating the UK in winter ;)