Nextenergy Solar Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 08/2/2024 13:05

Yield of 10% at these prices

[tuftymatt] 08/2/2024 08:17

Good news and mine will go back into buying more as I think north of 100 remains possible this year.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[masurenguy] 08/2/2024 07:07

Interim Dividend Declaration

NextEnergy Solar Fund is pleased to announce its third interim dividend of 2.09p per Ordinary Share for the quarter ended 31 December 2023, in line with its previously stated target of paying dividends of 8.35p for the year ended 31 March 2024. The interim dividend of 2.09p will be paid on 28 March 2024 to shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 16 February 2024. The ex-dividend date is 15 February 2024.

[chucko1] 05/2/2024 23:48

I do not fully (and if partly, quite a small part) go with that presumption. They have one facility not even up and running yet, potentially representing 5% of their portfolio (estimate). HEIT, GRID and even GSF have been falling further and faster, themselves partly owing to rate rises. Recently, certainly owing to the specific problem you allude to.

Many other ITs have fallen about the same amount (%) as NESF. What makes NESF a little tricky to analyse is that it had that sharp (from nowhere) rally just before and after Xmas. Seems happy to have reversed all of that and more with interest rate pressures.

[yump] 05/2/2024 16:55

Double bottom then ?

I presume this is fallout from the energy storage revenue problems highlighted elsewhere, specifically HEIT and GRID taking fright.

[gateside] 02/2/2024 19:45

I think the UK will cut sooner, due to autumn General Election.

[spectoacc] 02/2/2024 19:28

Agreed, but always been the case IMO. I've been for one cut from BoE this year. Fed I still think will go sooner/further simply because, well: Trump.

[tuftymatt] 02/2/2024 19:17

US jobs report blew things wide open this afternoon.

Higher for longer now in my opinion and talk of a March cut stateside seems well off the table now. In my opinion we are the last of the three to cut FED, ECB and BOE, so I can't see Bailey cutting before July as it stands.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[roddyb] 02/2/2024 14:08

heck! You spoke too soon!

[yump] 01/2/2024 14:02

Had a few more seeing as no rate change and no drop here, while other income stocks have dropped back a bit. Famous last words…

[the deacon] 30/1/2024 20:47

Good podcast with RG at NESFhttps://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/a-progressive-dividend-and-deeply-attractive-discount-with-the-nextenergy-solar-fund/

[yump] 28/12/2023 11:12

All anyone can really hope to do is buy around the bottom and sometimes you get lucky and time it right.

Within 10% of a bottom on average across various shares isn’t a bad aim.

Unfortunately, its the most scary when the prices seem silly low.

[tuftymatt] 28/12/2023 09:41

Yes and hopefully not too long until we are back around the 110 level again.

I should have topped up far more here but then again who could say for certain a rally as hard as we have seen over the past two months was on the cards??

I would suspect a pause for breath as we knock on the door of 100 so will add if we dip to today's opening level or so.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[panshanger1] 28/12/2023 09:27

Heavy ( buying ) volume this morning

[topvest] 27/11/2023 19:36

Good points. I think we both agree the gearing is a tad on the high side. I don't think its excessive...certainly not a bad vehicle. I think Helen Mahy will improve things.

[cc2014] 27/11/2023 14:18

Just a couple of points.

The prefs coupon is 4.75%

We should not forget the impact of existing capital commitments already made. I had trouble trying to find this figure but it seems to be £24m, although they speak of a much much bigger pipeline which clearly hasn't been committed to but the presentation gives the impression some of it they are very keen on.

[chucko1] 27/11/2023 12:09

Add to that the fact that the debt is not (generally, though I have not positively confirmed that here) valued at market. Were that the case, the NAV would be somewhat higher. Bear in mind the 4.75% prefs are undated, albeit convertible into shares in 13 years time.

Taking all that into account, this implies a reduction in the value of the debt of some £30mn. Total assets of around £860mn implies an NAV reduction of 3.5% or so, now being 43%.

An alternative argument is that the prefs are not really debt in any event, but may result in dilution at some stage. But in terms of "all hell breaking loose", I think that is a little wild at this stage.

[topvest] 27/11/2023 11:45

10 year gilt yields have dropped c30bps since the end of September, so that will have benefited NAV along with the uplift on disposal. I reckon that NAV is now north of 110p. Debt / Gross NAV is only 28% excluding the £200m prefs which are at 4.5%. Not excessive for low risk solar assets. Obviously, it would be preferable to pay down more of the RCF at current rates, and this is likely in 2024. 50% is the Investment Policy limit. I don't think its a covenant limit and 45% of GAV is not excessive, albeit 40% would be optimal.

[cc2014] 27/11/2023 10:14

They can't do buybacks Gateside as the gearing is too high. The last RNS shows the gearing before Hatherden at 46.4% vs the maximum limit of 50% as defined by the Investment Policy.

Unless they can do some more disposals if the NAV ticks down due to say forward power pricing falling or RPI falling faster than expected, they are in danger of breaching the 50% limit and all hell will break loose.

Regardless of the Investment Policy the gearing is too high and imho is resulting in the persistently high discount to NAV.


FSFL's gearing for comparison in 40.9%.

[gateside] 27/11/2023 09:58

They would be better off doing buybacks which is what FSFL are doing.

[cc2014] 27/11/2023 08:56

I find the disposal of Hatherden smelly.

It is being sold to a another part of the Next Energy Group and presumably the closed end fund run by Next which is buying the asset considers they are getting it cheap.

Somewhere there must be a winner and a loser out of the transaction.


Secondly I thought the idea of the capital disposal programme was to sell the assets which had no development opportunities with lower returns and recycle the capital into new investments with higher returns. This seems to be doing the opposite but perhaps that's because buyers have least interest in buying the assets with the lowest returns.


I guess what it does tell me is what I think we knew all along that the whole idea of NESF being able to dispose of lots of assets at good prices to the external market is far less likely than the recent RNS's would have us believe

[masurenguy] 26/11/2023 16:33

Duplicate.

[masurenguy] 26/11/2023 16:32

The discount to NAV here (as at the end of July) is circa 21.5%. I also hold BSIF and the discount to NAV there (as at end of Sptember) is circa 15.4%.

[chucko1] 26/11/2023 14:50

I see no reference whatsoever in any of their recent documents to targeting NAV growth. At 500bps or more over 10yr Gilts, it is not really necessary. There are other places to look for that, if that is your thing.

Additionally, NAV growth needs to be viewed as a long term thing as their NAV is volatile on account of the very long duration of the cash flows, volatile movements in both forward power prices and inflation and an episodic nature of discount rate movements. Lots of noise, little signal [on NAV].