Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 05/12/2019 21:18

CC2014

With you completely. ITs in one form or the other for things like direct property

[chucko1] 05/12/2019 12:55

Hpcg, given that dividends make up 70% or so of all returns, you would be swimming against a strong tide.

As is said, you show me a successful market timer, and I’ll show you a liar. From time to time, you can get it right, but not all the time. And when it goes wrong, it goes badly wrong.

Think “line integrals”.

[chucko1] 05/12/2019 12:42

Marks, short Gilts rallied in 2008. Check the yield curve movements at that time and you find out exactly what happened. And in the face of Pimco calling these bonds “nitroglycerine”.

Wiser heads don’t forget which countries don’t default no matter the stresses. It’s a cultural thing.

[hpcg] 05/12/2019 12:31

Short term liquidity CC2014? The fund size has shrunk from £4 billion to £2.5 billion since 2016. That is a trend played out over time. I don't think that's exactly what you meant, and I'm not contradicting the weakness of the open ended fund concept just pointing out that there is a root cause to the redemption flow. It's the same story as Woodford; it wasn't redemptions that caused the fund to suffer, it was the funds performance and holdings that cause investors not to want money in it.

[cc2014] 05/12/2019 12:22

oh ffs. I can't believe what I'm reading here.

The reason M&G have gated their fund is because it appears a considerable number of their investors want short term liquidity when the fund invests in long term property assets. It's the wrong vehicle for this type of investment.

And then it appears the solution for others is to hold 30% in cash to deal with problem. What in case people want their money out?!? how is any fund only permanently 70% invested supposed to make a decent return. Yeah I know let's go and invest in some property at 6% yield, but we have to keep 30% spare cash, so the return will only be 4%. ffs. I repeat it's the wrong vehicle.


Now whether you think NRR are paying bottom of the barrel prices when these funds are flogging off their assets for liquidity or alternative think they are overpaying and the prices are going far lower yet, at least you can see the evidence of where the assets are coming from why NRR think they are cheap. I agree they are cheap but I am nervous they could get cheaper yet. I don't have NRR right now having sold at 210 but I do have BLND, HMSO, INTU and other second liners. I would be very happy to buy again at a good price on a really bad run of days on FTSE.

[hpcg] 05/12/2019 12:08

Surprised anyone could think of the M&G gating as positive? NAV for retail only going one way still. The outflows show that investors do not want money in this space; they aren't distressed assets they are impaired assets. Ditto for Intu selling. It means NRR will struggle to sell anything and thus to recycle.

chucko1 - “it’s time IN the market, not timINg the market” is the biggest investment lie ever told. Its a narrative that is promoted by asset managers that take a fee for every day you hold. Timing is critical to achieving above market returns, reducing volatility and limiting drawdown.

[chucko1] 05/12/2019 09:59

... and all the time forgetting “it’s time IN the market, not timINg the market”. If one wants to minimise risk, buy short Gilts at sub 1%.

That said, I have restricted my exposure to NRR on the basis of the many risks still to fully unfold, but it is a meaningful part of the portfolio.

[eeza] 05/12/2019 09:28

"At some point there will be a sustainable yield here too , but when ?"


For you, fenners, the answer is never.

[lord gnome] 05/12/2019 09:24

If all these funds are selling - who is buying and what prices are they paying?

[fenners66] 05/12/2019 09:01

If you look at the M&G portfolio statement - more than 1/3 in retail.
That means almost 2/3s not in retail - where say in offices and warehousing valuations may be holding up.

So (I'm speculating here as I don't know their portfolio)

does that mean the true Month on Month retail valuation has

dropped 3.6%*3 = 10.8% ?

Now there is comfort in the share price here dropping further than previously stated NAV - but anything like a 10% fall in a month (or half a month) if repeated ?

I also heard the Canute argument that property here is lower end of valuation anyway - but to remain lower end of valuation it still has to fall.

I have said before - I should have shorted here a few years ago.

I am instead looking at stocks for sustainable yield.

At some point there will be a sustainable yield here too , but when ?

[diggybee] 05/12/2019 07:50

Don't be a sheep. Buy more if it comes lower with invesco and woodford remnants. But management look as if they're doing ok. And it's pretty much the ultimate contrarian call. Plus book value still has to fall about 25% before you're out of the money.

[wskill] 05/12/2019 07:28

fenners66 I am still dithering about whether to sell or not if you carry on with these tales of woe I will sell my property REITS.

[fenners66] 05/12/2019 07:23

82 branches of TSB set to close ?
Clintons saved in a pre-pack administration - for now.

[fenners66] 05/12/2019 07:22

More distressed sales to come - yes.
Clearly as they should be able to fund redemptions that puts them in a worse place than those who do not have to sell and crystallise losses.

However it does highlight the fall in valuation of the property portfolio whether or not its for sale.

[fenners66] 05/12/2019 07:19

M&G's property fund, which is backed by individual investors, holds 91 U.K. commercial properties across retail, industrial and office sectors, according to its latest filings. More than a third of its properties are in the hard-hit retail sectors, where department stores and other shops have reeled in the face of online commerce and changing consumer tastes.

The fund's property assets are typically valued by an outside firm once a month, but the declining value of retail sector assets prompted an unusual midmonth revaluation on Nov. 8, knocking 3.6% off the stated value of the fund. The fund cited a "marked deterioration in the retail sector" with falling rents and dropping valuations on retail property transactions.

[wskill] 04/12/2019 17:20

INTU is having a fire sale now M&G as well, wonder how many others are in the same boat
its not the best place to be at the moment retail but for the lucky few bargains are there to be had for the bold.

[speedsgh] 04/12/2019 16:47

Looks like more distressed sales will be available to the likes of NRR going by the M&G announcement today.

[spectoacc] 04/12/2019 16:33

Interesting, thanks. What's this "Brexit tension" of which they speak? It's either BoJo's deal, or Remain.

[zho] 04/12/2019 15:16

Fund manager M&G has suspended trading in its £2.5bn Property Portfolio, which is marketed to retail investors, after facing “unusually high and sustained outflows” it blamed on Brexit and the retail downturn.

[eeza] 04/12/2019 15:10

Obviously fenners is a Smiths' fan.

[spectoacc] 04/12/2019 14:30

@fenners66 - "...Clearly makes NRR a pub company as well."

I assume that's tongue-in-cheek!

[eeza] 04/12/2019 11:09

FFS.


Lol !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[fenners66] 04/12/2019 10:55

Thanks speeds

I thought they only invested in the property as say buying shops and leasing them to retailers.
The detail there about "ability to switch high performing community pubs between tenanted and managed "
clearly makes NRR a pub company as well.

So now we have to consider that a declining pub market could directly affect NRR not just remove tenants.

One of 3 pubs in a village near me has seemingly just closed - I noticed an advert for one of the other 2 attached to the front wall - so its a giveaway it will not be opening any time soon.