Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 17/9/2019 09:18

@Fenners66 - it'd cost £0, as you well know ;)

Income falling 15% would be a bind of course.

On which note, have a read of PCTN's RNS this morning.

[fenners66] 17/9/2019 09:16

Well done to anyone who bought at the lows, a profit is a profit after all.

I have not bought and still wary but still considering if there is value here ... (at the low share price).

However I still believe there is support for my wait and see approach.

1400 restaurants went bust last year

Article re Regional Reit in the Chronic Investor says they devalued retail assets (not a large part of their portfolio) by 15%.

How much would that cost if repeated here ?

[propinv] 17/9/2019 07:28

Hi zccax - yes, I did read the article. That isn't the net yield though, there are massive voids. Everything is priced off NIY, no way NIY is near Gross yield, otherwise they don't guide at £300k

[spectoacc] 17/9/2019 07:04

I recall offices going for similar yields just over a decade ago. Wonder if shopping centres will have the same renaissance...

27 units, 20 tenants, so perhaps 7 lots of empty rates liabilities, plus whatever else may be falling vacant soon, and no doubt lower rents going forward if new tenants can be found. But still a good purchase for someone local with the skills.

[zccax77] 16/9/2019 23:36

sold for £1.3m, rent 435k pa. yield 31%.

[propinv] 16/9/2019 23:27

Thanks. It's a useful post. But where does it say 30% yield? The gross rent I get, but there will be a vast number of voids / issues, hence the £300k guide price on a rent roll of £400k plus. Another take on the article could be it sold for 4x guide price.

[zccax77] 16/9/2019 22:27

Curtousy of another poster on another BB.

[zccax77] 16/9/2019 22:27

Well even shoping centres stuffed full of household names are under the cosh
This shopping centre sold at Allsop's July auction for a mind boggling 30% Argentian yield Priced to sell it was guided at £300k

hxxps://www.thebangoraye.com/bangors-deiniol-centre-up-for-sale-by-auction/


47 City Centre Freehold Shopping Centre Investment Bangor LL57 09/07/2019 Wales 30.06% Sold £1,370,000

[finkie] 16/9/2019 20:06

Oops 😬

[spectoacc] 16/9/2019 16:34

@finkie - the trick is to post when you sell, not when it's dropped back ;)

[finkie] 16/9/2019 10:38

Sold a few when it hit 196 Friday, feels like ex divi fall today but that isnt for a while!

[hugepants] 13/9/2019 13:15

All the retail focussed reits have rebounded strongly. Not convinced this rise will hold but happy days nonetheless.

[eeza] 13/9/2019 13:14

Shorts are opened for a variety of reasons, not always because they are bearish on the stock. At least some of the shorts will be hedged bets, as hpcg, or essentialinvestor, does regularly.

[ramellous] 13/9/2019 13:09

Also from Motley Fool yesterday..

[ramellous] 13/9/2019 13:01

From city am today.

The New River Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) owns retail parks and around 600 pubs.

Aware of the threat from online retail, the managers identify successful retailers as those who can offer convenience, value or service, and actively look for tenants who demonstrate these qualities.

Retail assets have become so cheap now, and well below the cost of rebuilding, that new investors are being attracted into the sector.

New River offers a third-party management service to these new owners and has signed three management contracts in the last few months.

New River REIT is also astonishingly cheap. At the time of writing, the net asset value per share is £2.61, while the share price is £1.52. The net asset value per share is the amount that would be realised if all the assets were to be sold, and the debt paid off.

The valuation of New River REIT can be explained partly by the current antipathy towards UK assets, and to retail property in particular, and partly by the fact that Woodford Investment Management, until recently a holder of 20 per cent of the company’s issued shares, is said to be selling its holding.

[hpcg] 13/9/2019 12:49

Unless those with a small short position are completely unable to read a chart then of course they are closing. Large positions have to be worked out.

[nickname27] 13/9/2019 12:44

I have no idea what people are actually doing but if I were short this I would be getting out before the next divi is declared, which last year was in mid october (not sure why there is 4 month gap from the june one instead of 3).

At the current yield it will mean stumping up about 3% of your position in cash to your lender. You'd have to be very confident it was going to continue to go down at that price.

[chucko1] 13/9/2019 12:26

I agree with all of that. But it’s unlikely that many of the sub 0.5% shorters are closing and none of those indicated in the 4.19% “above 0.5%” total. Possible, but unlikely.

[einsensei] 13/9/2019 11:32

The 4.19% “short position” is just the sum of short positions above 0.5%. Of which there are currently 6 [typo edited from “9”]

“A public share notification must be made when the net short positions of shares reach 0.5% of the issued share capital of the company concerned, and again at each 0.1% increment after that.
This relates to both increases and decreases of the position (including each time the position drops from 0.5% or above to below 0.5%). “

There’ll be a tail of shorts below 0.5%. Depending on the “length” of that tail it could easily be an additional short of, say, another 4%. And more importantly there is no public transparency on what those smaller shorts are doing.

Private data providers, e.g. IHS Markit, provide paid-for data on the level of stock lending which is a good proxy for the total short position [typo edited from “provisionR21;]. The total stock lending changes would give a good idea of changes in short position.

[hpcg] 13/9/2019 10:41

chucko1 - I suspect shorts have been closing. There will be some FOMO on the long side too but price action is indicative of urgency, and to me the most likely is people wrapping up their short positions and moving on.

[chucko1] 13/9/2019 10:27

Still pretty heavily shorted at 4.19%. It’s not as though they have been cutting to fuel this rapid rise. I know they Odey cut a little while back, and that their short was purely a trade against Woodford.

[2wild] 13/9/2019 10:07

Wow now showing a profit on each of my last 6 purchases going back to 4th June including dealing costs and July dividend on a couple.

[ramellous] 13/9/2019 10:04

There were a couple of short positions opened on the 6th and 15th August. Averaging in low 150s.. must be closing those now..

[chucko1] 13/9/2019 09:57

It’s still yielding 11.5%!!

Ironic that NW had a good stock here, but flogged it and bought “better” more liquid stuff. As some posters have been arguing here, this is a stock to hold no matter the heavy storms involved! As well as the fundamentally flawed analysis.

It gives me a lot of optimism for some of the other Woodford stocks that have been battered as this sharp retrace is very likely a function of the unwinding of the very likely Woodford “principal factor”. He also held (holds?) WHR and RGL.

[hpcg] 12/9/2019 10:54

I like the management fees too. They can all be retained as cash or used against gearing tax efficiently. They shouldn't be returned to investors.