Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[mikeyfernandez] 18/9/2018 16:44

Thanks Mr 10% for your response. Chucko cleared it up, that it was due to prices being rebased at certain points like june 2017 and not all sites graphing it the same. I appreciate your charting knowledge. The next ex dividend is forecast for about 18th October, before another one at the end of the year.

[2wild] 18/9/2018 16:23

When does this next go Ex Dividend?

[chucko1] 18/9/2018 14:00

Mr. 10%, I agree the short term looks difficult!

[mrtenpercent] 18/9/2018 13:48

Mikeyfernandez, chuck01 - sorry for delayed reply. My chart is from stockcharts.com to whom I pay £19.68 a month (at current exchange rates) for a service which occasionally throws up some very strange anomalies. I haven't got time to check the figures on the NRR chart. I am thinking of changing to Sharepad. I agree that historic support levels are often misleading, but I think in NRR's case the recent break may prove to be significant. I just glanced at the chart for the last week - simply horrid. Charts aren't everything but they do paint a picture....

[hpcg] 18/9/2018 12:12

Masses of evidence to suggest Woodford is the dictionary definition of a mug. There are clearly two different perspectives on this board: holders look at the yield and thus to the ultimate recovery in the share price, where non-holders or former holders are concerned that rents will decrease and thus so must the pass through dividend.

[chucko1] 18/9/2018 11:07

My worry is the NW May be forced to sell owing to further fund redemptions, irrespective of his “muggishness”. Actually, not a real worry as I believe in NRR long term and only if major facts were to change would I be truly concerned. I have seen little, if anything, to suggest NRR’s fundamentals are not sound at the current share price

[tim1478] 18/9/2018 10:39

"Woodford isn’t a mug." True, he is not but it is interesting how an investment approach that was so successful in the past has proved disastrous now.

[mikeyfernandez] 18/9/2018 09:06

Cheers for the explanation chucko! Makes a bit more sense now. Certainly I feel that the areas nrr have bought into in many ways will insulate it from a lot of the internet boom in retail. They clearly have a very defined idea of what areas they want to buy in! I believe that a few reits who have bought poorly, could be in bigtrouble in the next couple of years. Once the dust settles on Woodford, brexit and the weaker retailers disappearing I think nrr will be fairly well placed. It only has a 28% loan to value so isn’t too exposed. In the mean time a high yield takes the edge off the paper losses and can just wait it out if involved at a high average or get in at very juicy levels if not. Once the tide eventually turns and the shorts get squeezed it could bounce back 10% sharpish. Plus Woodford isn’t a mug. He may well have the last laugh there.

[chucko1] 17/9/2018 17:39

I should also have added that because of the above, it can make a mockery of support and resistance points on long term graphs (and some other TA items). Especially in high dividend stocks!!

[chucko1] 17/9/2018 17:37

Price on June 14th 2014 was 314 (Bloomberg). But whenever there have been rights issues, splits or other sorts of open offers, share prices are rebased. In June 2017, we had just such a thing.

Historic dividends also get rebased. So, it depends upon the source and how sophisticated it is.

[chucko1] 17/9/2018 17:26

Tim, I just tried shorting MTRO, and was told the same. All it means is that it’s already heavily shorted as compared with what is in funds that are happy to lend.

[mikeyfernandez] 17/9/2018 17:06

Hi mr tenpercent. I've had a look at your chart and there seems to be some error on google on nrr historic share prices. For example if you got to 13th june 2014 the price with hargreaves landsdown chart and the nrr historic price look up on their website is 319. However on the google chart it is 286 and around about there on your graph. I don't know which website made the error, but it looks as though hargreaves landsdown chart is correct and google is wrong checking against the nrr website. This is my first post and I have read many of your insightful comments thus far. I'm just interested where you got your historic share prices from, as ones up until may 2017 appear iffy.

Cheers

[spectoacc] 17/9/2018 11:52

If Woodford & Invesco aren't lending, then won't be much borrow on it - and all of that will likely be out already.

[tim1478] 17/9/2018 11:39

Just tried to make a short order on IG but IG won't accept short orders. Is this a concern?

[skyship] 17/9/2018 09:45

Nice TA Mr10% - agreed that 237p looks a good backstop, however such old support levels have to be viewed with suspicion as those old buyers are very unlikely to still be around!

May miss a bargain; but prefer to wait for signs of base-building at some stage.

RGL already my largest holding, but any new cash better allocated there for its 8.2% yield, 14% discount and far better sector allocation.

[tim1478] 16/9/2018 17:42

Great analysis Tenpercent

[essentialinvestor] 16/9/2018 12:26

Just a point about Elliott re Land/Bland - Elliott are the 5th largest holders
in HMSO. In guessing the Land/Blnd shorts are to act as a hedge against
potential further falls in HMSO - may be mistaken.

[eeza] 16/9/2018 12:11

Below article not specifically about NRR, but out of town SC's in general.

"NewRiver – which operates dozens of centres in locations ranging from Darlington to Kilmarnock to Penge in South East London, and is valued at £762 million – now has 5.6 per cent of its shares held by short sellers, about £43 million.

Meanwhile, activist fund Elliott has built up a £110 million short position across property giants British Land and Land Securities."

[mrtenpercent] 16/9/2018 12:01

And here is my chart:

I try to avoid technical mumbo jumbo but I have drawn three red/green lines to show resistance/support at 254, 237 and 203. I have also shown the Fibonacci retracement of the whole price advance from 134 in 2012 to the all-time high of 359 last year. What I see is significant damage on 13 September when StockCharts shows a low of 245 which broke both the 254 support AND (just) the 50% retracement at 246. And NRR isn't dramatically oversold on the daily chart. I use 3 indicators to try and judge whether a share is so oversold that there is almost certainly going to be an imminent bounce. None of those have been triggered. and between 7 and 14 September on my hourly chart 255 very clearly became resistance - not enough buyers to keep the price above that level.

The only thing that will change this chart is if the price rises safely above 255, say 260 or better, and stays above, with a test and re-test establishing that as the floor. If that doesn't happen then 237 does indeed look likely and if that doesn't hold then we might see 203 and the 10% yield I mentioned previously.

I have decided that I would like to own NRR, and all I am doing here is thinking about when it is safe to buy. Of course if that's what the majority are doing the shorts will not buy and the price will continue to fall. But not, I think, to zero. This isn't a dud. It's just an unfashionable business with a major shareholder who might have to sell and a bunch of shorts taking advantage of the situation.

[skyship] 15/9/2018 13:27

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[tim1478] 15/9/2018 13:10

Just got a 10 year chart on Prorealtime. 235/238 has been solid support being a bounce point 5 times in the last 10 years. We are nearly there!

[tim1478] 15/9/2018 12:57

Target. I do not have a target but grateful to Tenpercent for suggestion that it could go to 200 even if dividend/pass through income is maintained. I cannot get a chart that goes further back than 5 years. If price does fall further and there is reassuring news, shorters wil cover and there should be a good price bounce. Of course if there is evidence of distress - needing renewed bank covenants - then price will collapse. I think this will be ok because the management is good. I took a position in RGL last week. It is also well managed but has more debt. It invests in offices more than retail.

[mrtenpercent] 15/9/2018 12:17

@gswredland - it's not really a dividend because this is a REIT so it's effectively a pass-through of the net income. And (as I said in an earlier post) circa 8% is what the traditional yield was on secondary retail property, for many, many years. It just seems a high yield now because we have all got used to historically low bank base rates. And here's a comparison to show that 8% is not out of order, look at Regional Reit (RGL) and read the bulletin board about that investment on here. That's another one with a share overhang but I prefer RGL to NRR. I think I want 9% or even 10% from NRR to compensate for their retail bias which will restrict rental growth and the risk that Woodford will be forced to reduce his holding. It's a mug's game predicting share prices in a case like this but I wonder if we might expect the shorts to start covering if the price goes down to the point where the yield is indeed somewhere between 9% and 10% and the teenage scribblers are tempted to start tipping? If that's right what would it suggest? Another 20% off the current sp? Bottom at £2? With a few bumps upwards on the journey down of course.

[essentialinvestor] 15/9/2018 11:44

Tim, do you have a particular downside price target/s in mind, thanks.