Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[fairdeal2008] 26/8/2009 06:55

Quinan you on the right BB with that post? The company have lots of cash and the idea is the new partner funds NPL 2008...

[quinan] 26/8/2009 06:53

Ihave the placing @7p could be seen as a bench mark but if depends on the news to continued rise. Say NPH raised £10mln @8p yes the dilution would be huge, but if they said this £10mln would bring NPL2008 to market and sales could be worth £150mln some how I don't feel the share price would drop to 8p. the dilution of the company would be matched by the cash and future prospects.

Placing are always difficult to judge, I tend to look at the prospects that the cash will be used for.

G2 the MM's are there to make an orderly market unfortunately for AIM stocks they seem to be a law to them selves. It also depends on how many MM's are dealing with any company if you only have 3 MM's then things can be manipulated quite easy if you have 5 then things get a little more difficult.

If the MM's sell stock they don't have they must retrieve it form a seller before they can balance things up the time span could be 10mins or days, I don't know the law on selling stock they don't have. One thing is clear if the buying continues they will have to keep the price moving up to retrieve stock. But they have lots of trick up their sleeve to temped people out.

[fairdeal2008] 26/8/2009 06:48

Remember we close yesterday having had two or so treeshake attempts with virtually no stock feeding back in. If holders remain similarly stoichal in the next trading sessions the impact on price could be a sight to behold...

The wider spread is their to deter and try and claw stock back but will disappear very quickly if the buys continue.

Hold onto your underpants folks... imho

[fairdeal2008] 26/8/2009 06:46

No need for an rns - although would expect one if the share price goes up 100% today - just to reflect the prudence of management and the nomad.

The company was clear in the May rns that they expected to sign a deal by the autumn and we are nearing that point so getting close to an rns.

They clearly have a well laid out programme here and I suspect some pretty impressive support.

I saw that they recruited somebody from Wyeth into Neuropharm a while back and the thought occured to me that it might be Wyeth they are working with. If that was the case you can imagine the impact on share price that news would have.

imho

[thearcticfox] 26/8/2009 06:41

No RNS this morning? I was expecting one.

[fairdeal2008] 26/8/2009 06:38

This is a good indicator:

[ihavenoclue] 25/8/2009 23:19

Fairdeal ... no worries ... knew it wasn't aimed towards me as, as i had stated over a month ago, I would only start getting excited over 30p.

This rise just confirms what we all thought about the true value of NPH. The new faces don't bother me even though I think most are just looking for a short term rise.

As WB has said ... the stock market is a wonderful mechanism of transfering wealth from the impatient to the patient. It has taken me 3 years to become patient on the stock market, I still have a little way to go but I am nearly there and NPH is showing me the rewards of patience.

Regards
IHNC

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 21:03

May RNS as a reminder:

Shareholder Update
28 May 2009

Neuropharm Group plc (AIM: NPH), a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on neurodevelopmental disorders, today announces an interim update to its shareholders on significant progress during the past three months.

On 18 February 2009 the Company announced the top-line results for the SOFIA study in Autistic Disorder of NPL-2008, a novel formulation of fluoxetine, which showed that this study had not met its primary endpoint of demonstrating a statistically significant difference between NPL-2008 and placebo treatment.

The Company has largely completed the analysis of the results from this study and is now in discussion with clinicians and experts in the field, who continue to express strong support for the product. In addition, following considerable interest in NPL-2008 from a number of parties, discussions have progressed well with a third party pharmaceutical company for a potential collaboration which would encompass the further development and commercialisation of NPL-2008. Neuropharm is therefore developing study designs for a second Phase III study, in conjunction with the partner.

Neuropharm's intention would be to conduct a further Phase III study for NPL-2008 with a modified trial design, incorporating the important findings and insights from SOFIA, which will be funded through the collaboration. It is expected that a deal will be signed by the autumn of this year.

[g2am] 25/8/2009 20:50

Quinan - thanks for an in depth explanation. I have read about tree shaking but I find it hard to spot (a good drop in price one day with no real reason for it?). I didn't realise they had so much levarage on the share price or is that just for smaller cap stocks? So if there is so much demand with supporting volume how can they bring the share price down? Sorry if this is off topic. Thanks for the info though

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 20:09

Thats a generic comment IHNC not aimed at you :-)

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 20:08

Ha IHNC hope so = please can we stop being dull, reticent and get a little excited!!!

[ihavenoclue] 25/8/2009 20:06

Fairdeal2008 - 25 Aug'09 - 20:59 - 1707 of 1709


My point is that the deal, when it comes and with a major pharma, will make an enormous difference to NPH.... that potential alongside a ridiculous undervaluation is why we are moving up imho, and long may it continue... imho

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Now that I agree with and have done since May :-)

[ihavenoclue] 25/8/2009 20:04

QUINAN - 25 Aug'09 - 17:16 - 1702 of 1706

BUT as with AMC the other day there was so much buying pressure the MM's did not have enough to fuel the demand, they sold stock to punters @ 16p and have now pulled the share price down to 8p to force sellers out so they can get there stock back. Once they have done this the share price soon bounces back as long as the momentum is there.

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Are you sure the placing at 7p didn't have anything to do with that ? I am tempted to buy back in to AMC for the mid-term

Regards
IHNC

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 20:03

Now take a look at the Edison note (May 2009) on this link (download):



This note suggests an rNPV of up to £50mn on a deal using prudent assumptions and subject to deal specifics of course. This is £1.60 a share....and although unlikely to be reached in one jump, in time is a reasonable target imho.

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 19:59

My point is that the deal, when it comes and with a major pharma, will make an enormous difference to NPH.... that potential alongside a ridiculous undervaluation is why we are moving up imho, and long may it continue... imho

[ihavenoclue] 25/8/2009 19:55

Seems like this share was hugely oversold in February. We are due an update in H2 of 2009 regarding NPL-2003 and they are looking at getting the JV signed before the Autumn according to recent RNS.


Fairdeal2008 - 25 Aug'09 - 14:36 - 1648 of 1703


Think I keep mentioning NPL 2008 and should say NPL 2003 .....

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They also said BY the Autumn and not BEFORE the Autumn

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 19:54

remember this from end of May:

[juckster] 25/8/2009 16:58

We're alltalking abount newd coming, do you think this rise is in anticipation of news, therefore when news comes out, the share price will drop again ? I've seen it happen so much before.

I am a holder here btw.

[quinan] 25/8/2009 16:16

G2 mainly down to supply and demand, as most MM's do not carry stock they rely on us to feed them when there is demand, if they don't get any sellers the price can move very quickly until they hit a limit were some sellers start to appear. They can use what many call a shake to squeeze stock from holders. This is when the buying is frantic so to slow things down they start to drop the price, some may see this as a good op to take profit as the rise is over and sell out, if the buying momentum starts up again they have no option to keep the price moving to feed the buys. So a shake is quickly followed by a sharp move back up. If however they start to get enough stock then the share price can start to level off. If however the MM's don't get enough stock they can sell factious stock on the hope that they will get it back later. If they don't get any sellers the upward movement will continue. BUT as with AMC the other day there was so much buying pressure the MM's did not have enough to fuel the demand, they sold stock to punters @ 16p and have now pulled the share price down to 8p to force sellers out so they can get there stock back. Once they have done this the share price soon bounces back as long as the momentum is there.

If that makes any sense? others may come up with a better example

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 16:04

Oh one other thing

have a look at basic chart nph 30 days with underlying volume - its a shocker massive increase in volume today - something is happening am sure.

vanilla eh....

mint choc and that would have been ok :-)

[arc2006] 25/8/2009 15:58

Cheers FD.......and oh yes.......vanilla!

[fairdeal2008] 25/8/2009 15:46

Ok am out of here - see you all tomorrow....

[g2am] 25/8/2009 15:36

Hi all, interesting thread today. I got in around 35p and momentum and volume look good. I'm "relatively" new to this and I don't understand exactly how the MM's can shape things, would someone be kind enough to explain? Thanks and GL for tomorrow

[mike_f] 25/8/2009 15:35

Great to see some decent volume finally coming through today, NPH is well and truely on the radar of most investors today whether they are interested in investing or not! Would like to think we would get a little press this evening and fingers crossed we continue the rise tomorrow whether news comes out or not! MM's played it fairly well as they had very little stock and just widened the spread to make sure there wern't many top up's before close. Will be up bright and early tomorrow morning ready for whatever tomorrow may bring. GLA and see you tomorrow.