Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[alan@bj] 14/6/2011 08:18

From today's "Times":-

"It took the water companies to threaten hosepipe bans to get the heavens to open at the weekend, but shares in the water groups were liquid for a different reason yesterday. Word that the relatively minor supply company Bristol Water, owned by the Franco-Spanish utility Agbar was up for sale at £370 million got dealers thinking that, with a White Paper on the industry due from Defra in the coming months, long-awaited consolidation in the sector may be on the way. The big water and sewerage companies want cross-regional border M&A to release economies of scale and cut costs, but Ofwat, the regulator, has defended the no-merger-allowed status quo since privatisation two decades ago. Even so, Severn Trent rose by 9p to end teh day at £14.55, the North West Water group United Utilities closed 6p up at 602¾p and the South West Water group Pennon rose 4p to 666p."

[darias] 13/6/2011 18:01

Price at record levels. Where its going nobody knows.

[craigends] 13/6/2011 16:24

No sign of this rise stopping - when does it reach pencilled in 'bid levels' On this front surely Canadian Pension fund would have notified market if it had increased it's holding -if it is outwith window of interest from last 'rumour'?

[alan@bj] 10/6/2011 09:07

I tend to agree. I had expected a pull back but it just hasn't happened

[tuning peg] 09/6/2011 15:17

I think we are at the stage where there is no smoke without fire.

[zeppo] 09/6/2011 14:55

Still positive in this weak market.

UU. also up a bit today.

z

[tuning peg] 06/6/2011 10:21

Yes, seems to be persistent buying over the last two weeks and significantly is maintained post the results. Doesn't seem a wise time to sell.

[alan@bj] 06/6/2011 09:51

Then again........... NWG is up 1.7% at the moment, when United Utilities, Severn Trent and Pennon are all down.

[alan@bj] 05/6/2011 11:03

Probably a good call ohisay, although I'm staying in for the 9.57p dividend.

[ohisay] 02/6/2011 12:36

The bit that caught my eye in the IC piece was .

"Indeed, broker Evolution Securities points out that the shares are now rated at 115 per cent of the group's regulatory asset value, which is pricey for the sector. "

Given the run they've had and the fact they're at year highs I sold out today.After yesterdays DOW carnage better safe than sorry IMV.

[praipus] 02/6/2011 10:30

Know what you mean quite content to hold these and DVW and do my best to ignore the noise content that the company will still be here in 10 years time or I will have taken a reasonable premium from a takeover and enjoyed dividends inbetween.... I hope.

[alan@bj] 02/6/2011 10:19

Praipus - the latest rumours are that the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, which owns 29% of the shares, may be thinking of taking the company private. Last year it was that they might sell their holding to a gulf state infrastructure fund, which would then bid for the whole lot. They're only rumours, I've no idea if there's any truth in them.

[praipus] 01/6/2011 20:11

lol IC are usually a sure indicator of a takeover I wonder who it is?

[alan@bj] 01/6/2011 18:06

Rated a sell by Investors Chronicle today. That'll be a cast iron buy then. IC's rationale is that the current share price (359p at today's close)is buoyed by persistent bid chatter - but they feel a bid is unlikely to happen and that consequently the price will drift south.

[zeppo] 22/5/2011 12:05

Preliminary results 1st June.


z

[alan@bj] 13/5/2011 08:23

TP - actually I should have used a calculator and not guessed at the dividends - but I wasn't far out. I bought in at £1.0281 in October 2003. Last year's dividends totalled 13.57p so, on a crude calculation, I'm getting just 13.2%. My profit inclusive of dividends is a tad shy of £50K. If I'd been clever I'd have sold on the highs and bought on the lows, but it rarely works like that doies it? I'd most likely have sold at a high-ish point and either invested in a couple of dogs, or had cash tied up in something else when there was a good opportunity to buy back in. I'm very happy just taking the dividends.

[tuning peg] 12/5/2011 17:44

Alan, based on the fact NWG pay a c. 13p divi then you i guess you must have been with NWG from the very beginning at c. 100p (around 2004?). Or are working out 15% based on reinvesting the divis? Either way very impressed you have stayed with them so long but of course this does demonstrate the power of long term investing.

My weighted average is 258p so NWG has been one of my stellar performers. Not bad for a boring old water stock and having this in my ISA is an added bonus. They'll be difficult to replace plus I do feel slightly uneasy about our infrastructure owned by overseas institutions.

But the OTPF bid rumour resurfaces it's head every 6 months whenever there is a quiet market, will most likely not have any substance behind it.

[alan@bj] 12/5/2011 17:01

Interesting final paragraph TP, I'll check out ECWO, although like you, I've got mixed feelings about a takeover. At the price I paid for my shares the dividend equates to over 15% per annum, and I could do without the CGT problem if they were taken over.

[tuning peg] 12/5/2011 13:20

A perrenial rumor but it just doesn't seem to go away. The OTPF are of course now free to make an offer - their previous denial was well over 6 months ago so LSE rules now allow them to show their hand.

As a shareholder I would take great delight in seeing a bid as it would discredit Neil Woodford's case as being a "star" fund manager even further (his Invesco fund turned its back on UK listed utilities in a very high profile way).

On the other hand, as I've posted before on this thread, NWG is a quality stock with an attractive dividend and it will be a major task to find something with the same credentials (no doubt this will invite plenty of suggestions bur for the record I am already heavily into SSE and NG).

As a suggestion of my own I would urge anyone to check out ECWO, they have a large holding in NWG and they trade at a significant discount to NAV. A takeover for NWG will trigger a wave of consolidation in the sector and ECWO have holdings in a number of UK listed utilities.

[miata] 12/5/2011 12:27

and again


What's the raw?
Northumbrian Water Group PLC (NWG:LSE): Last: 361.10, up 4.1 (+1.15%), High: 363.00, Low: 354.40, Volume: 919.73k
NH
rumour that the Ontario Teachers Pension fund
NH
is set to come in with a 430p a share offer
NH
bit of volume in the stock today

[alan@bj] 28/4/2011 08:09

Rose 4p yesterday again on takeover rumours, and an alternative story that the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund is looking to increase its 26.7% stake.

[alan@bj] 26/4/2011 09:51

Up on "vague takeover rumours" according to The Times. Maybe one day, but NWG has been the subject of takeover rumours for years.

[craigends] 05/4/2011 11:00

Wow that's some holding dump from INVESCO?
no wonder reaction going on today -any news on this?

[optomistic] 11/3/2011 14:24

Steady times for NWG....when's the next takeover rumour due....

[alan@bj] 07/3/2011 14:11

From yesterday's Sunday Times - Five Shares for a Balanced Portfolio:-

Northumbrian Water

This is a steady water company with the added attraction of being a potential takeover target, said Raynor.

"It has previously rejected two takeover approaches and we wouldn't rule out it happening a third time," he said.

Dividends produced by water companies can help protect against inflation, as the revenue from charges to customers is linked to the retail prices index (RPI), as is the regulated asset value.

Raynor said: "If inflation is set to remain high in the UK, Northumbrian Water's pledge to grow its dividend above inflation will provide an inflation hedge."
Price: 328p, yield: 3.9%, p/e 13.3