National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[a0002577] 12/12/2005 10:11

A very nice price rise today - so I have sold. IF there isn't a bid (there does seem to be some speculation about at the moment) then I hope to buy back in in end Feb/early March - but we shall see.

[tole] 28/11/2005 14:51

Hi A000, yes forthcoming divi a factor, though I still see these heading north -similar thoughts with qwerty, maybe a slight drop back to 540- but ultimately a break to 600p. Personally see 550p as the position to hold to confirm its break - always hard to pick its move with the divi window though...

Not really concerned as keep both a core holding and swing trade it quite often but I still but value to at least 630p...with xxd of course... :)

Williams de Broe has by ratings for National Grid.
Merrill Lynch reiterates its neutral stance on National Grid.

Lehman Keeps National Grid At Overweight
Monday, November 28, 2005
0847 GMT [Dow Jones] Lehman Brothers keeps National Grid (NGG) at overweight. Says Ofgem's final proposals are broadly in line with expectations. Says the downward revisions to the allowance for historical overspend on capex is a minor disappointment. "However, it is encouraging to note that Ofgem has softened its tone around the robustness of National Grid's historical and future capex plans." In addition, notes the regulator has indicated that due to time constraints it has not been able to take into account all of the evidence put forward by National Grid. "As a result in next year's full review, should Ofgem find that it has not allowed for efficiently incurred capex, the amount identified will be included in the opening RAV for 2007/08." Trades +0.4% at 556.5p.

Deutsche Ups National Grid 06 EPS Forecast
Friday, November 25, 2005
1133 GMT [Dow Jones] Deutsche Bank reiterates buy rating on National Grid (NGG) with a 600p price target. Lifts FY 06 EPS forecast by 10% to 47p from 43p. Says National Grid remains its favored UK utility. "Last week's strong results were the first under IFRS accounting standards, and after the disposal of the four gas networks which were sold earlier this year," Deutsche notes. "Now the dust has settled, we are able to forecast future earnings more clearly." Shares +0.8% at 553p.

[qwerty1234] 28/11/2005 14:22

My best guess for the share price is that it will drop back in a few days after the X Div date, take a breather then move on above 560p in a few weeks.
That's probably hope talking rather than any rational analysis though.

All imho, dyor

[a0002577] 27/11/2005 12:31

Hi Tole: you don't think that NG. is holding above 550 is anything to do with the forthcoming dividend? My thoughts are that it rises up to each dividend and then falls away in the 'dead months' between interims and final results (and vice versa). Trading out and then in again works for me anyway. It seems to be stuck in a trading range between about 500 and about 560. Anyway, I will sell all of mine if it reaches 560 between now and Tuesday night. Otherwise they will go immediately ex-div and then I shall try to buy back in Feb/March at sub 520.

[tole] 25/11/2005 10:20

Holding nicely above 550 - possible push north from here.

25th Novemeber 2005
Deutsche Bank has buy rating and 600p price target for National Grid, raising estimates.

[a0002577] 22/11/2005 11:28

Try to see if Cold snap coming to an abrupt end

[cheekycharlie] 22/11/2005 10:19

Cold snap coming to an abrupt end...???

[tole] 21/11/2005 12:06

U.K. Natural Gas Jumps, Power Prices Surge on Freezing Weather

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. natural-gas prices jumped to their highest in more than eight months and wholesale electricity prices surged around Europe as freezing weather increased demand at a time when gas supplies are curtailed.

Freezing temperatures were recorded this morning in at least one location in all nine regions tracked by the U.K. Met Office, with a low of minus 6 Celsius (43 degrees) in the country's south. In the gas market, production is reduced by a faulty compressor at the Britannia field, Britain's second-largest.

``Supply is tight in the system,'' said Arnaud Millet, a gas trader at EDF Trading in London. ``Cold weather is a factor here, and in Europe.''

Natural gas for delivery today at the National Balancing Point gained 37.5 pence, or 52 percent, to 1.10 pounds a therm at about 10:30 a.m. London time, according to Spectron prices on Bloomberg. Today's price equals $19 per million British thermal units. A therm is 100,000 British thermal units.

Prices have tripled in the past 10 days as industrial buyers including Terra Nitrogen and the Ineos group of chemical companies in the U.K. cut back consumption to conserve supplies. The government last week ordered a study into the threat of shortages this winter.

British wholesale electricity prices for day-ahead delivery increased by 29 pounds, or 51 percent, to 86 pounds a megawatt- hour ($148, or 125 euros). That's the highest price since at least December 2003.

In Germany, wholesale power for day-ahead delivery soared 69 percent, or 37.75 euros, to 92.75 euros a megawatt-hour ($110).

Cold Weather

Freezing temperatures can cause gas demand to more than double from warmer months in Britain, the European Union's biggest gas market. Prices have surged in the past year, driving up costs for manufacturers and consumers, as supplies tightened because of declining North Sea output. Cold temperatures may last throughout this week.

Subfreezing temperatures may linger through the week, with nighttime lows of minus 2 Celsius in Birmingham on Friday, the Met Office said. Lows on Friday in London will be zero Celsius. Edinburgh will drop to minus 3 Celsius, according to the forecast.

Supplies in the gas pipeline network through tomorrow morning may fall to 287 million cubic meters from 292 million this morning, National Grid Plc, the pipeline manager, said on its Web site at about 10 a.m. Demand may be 372 million, the highest so far this heating season, National Grid said.

Interconnector Shutdown

Gas for delivery in December rose to a record, adding 17 pence, or 23 percent, to 89 pence a therm at the National Balancing Point at around 10:30 a.m., according to London-based ICE Futures.

Interconnector (U.K.) Ltd., owner of a natural-gas pipeline linking England and Belgium, had to shut down the line for ``a few hours'' on Nov. 19 because of an unspecified fault, the company said.

``It was down for a few hours and a bit of supply was affected by this,'' Sean Waring, Interconnector's manager of commercial operations, said in an interview today. ``The pipe is now fully available.''

The Interconnector shipped 23 million cubic meters of gas to the U.K. on Nov. 19 and about 32 million on Nov. 18, Waring said.

[tole] 18/11/2005 09:48

:)

Facing resistance at 550 - could well rally if we break through - still looking long term for a share price of 630...

Weak Positive Candidate (Medium term) - Nov 17, 2005
Has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. Is moving within a rectangle formation between support at 500 and resistance at 549. A decisive break through one of these levels indicates the new direction for the the stock. The stock has support at p 507 and resistance at p 550. The stock is overall assessed as technically slightly positive for the medium long term.

Positive Candidate (Short term) - Nov 17, 2005
Shows a strong development within a rising trend channel. A further positive development is indicated, and there is support against the floor of the trend channel. The stock has support at p 533 and resistance at p 550. The stock is assessed as technically positive for the short term.

[gateside] 18/11/2005 09:35

Tole.... thanks for all the info :-)

[tole] 18/11/2005 09:33

National Grid 1H Figures Beat Expectations
Thursday, November 17, 2005 3:24:08 AM ET Dow Jones Newswires

0807 GMT [Dow Jones] National Grid's (NGG) 1H EPS of 17.9p, "above both our estimate at 16.8p and consensus at 16.9p," says analyst. "Pretax over the half year grew by 11% over the half year - this was also above our expectation and that of the market." Interim dividend of 10.2p has been declared, he notes. Trades +0.8% at 538.5p. (SMT)


Nat Grid 1H "Pretty Strong" - Analyst
Thursday, November 17, 2005 3:08:36 AM ET Dow Jones Newswires

0741 GMT [Dow Jones] National Grid (NGG) shows "pretty strong set of (1H) results, far above expectations," says analyst. "All of its businesses are doing well," he adds, citing a decent increase in UK gas distribution business, and colder UK weather over the period, increasing gas demand. "The company is doing well in the US, but results are masked by higher commodity costs," analyst says. Shares closed at 534p. (ECO)

[tole] 18/11/2005 09:15

National Grid lifts investment to £2bn a year to meet gas demand
By Michael Harrison, Business Editor
Published: 18 November 2005

National Grid, the owner of Britain's gas and electricity transmission networks, is to lift its capital spending by one-third to £2bn a year to help meet the UK's increased dependency on gas imports and the growth in renewable energy.

At present, the company inve-sts about £1.5bn a year - of which two-thirds is spent in the UK on the upgrading of the power networks and replacement of gas mains. But National Grid plans to increase that by £500m a year over the medium term.

The company is investing £200m this year to connect the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Milford Haven, South Wales, to the grid and £100m to link up the Norwegian pipeline from the Orman Lange gas field. National Grid is also investing £350m over the next three years to expand its LNG import terminal at the Isle of Grain on top of the £150m already spent on it. National Grid is testing the market to see whether a further expansion of Grain is justified, which could involve further spending of £150m to £200m.

In addition to the increase in spending on gas transmission, the company is planning to invest between £700m and £800m over three years to cope with the big increase in electricity being fed into the transmission network from renewable energy projects such as wind farms. Many of these are in Scotland but the primary market for their power is England, meaning the transmission system needs to be strengthened to handle the increased throughput.

There have been widespread fears the UK could run short of gas this winter because of a lack of storage and transmission capacity in the event of a prolonged and severe cold snap. This could force the Grid to cut off industrial users to safeguard supplies to domestic consumers.

Roger Urwin, National Grid's chief executive, said he was confident the system could withstand a very cold winter. But he admitted there might need to be a "demand side response" - price rises to choke back consumption and the suspension of supplies to industrial users on interruptible contracts.

He was speaking as National Grid announced an 11 per cent increase in pre-tax profits for the first half of the year and a 20 per cent rise in the interim dividend to 10.2p. The group returned £2bn of cash to shareholders in August after the £5.8bn sale of four local gas distribution networks.

National Grid, the owner of Britain's gas and electricity transmission networks, is to lift its capital spending by one-third to £2bn a year to help meet the UK's increased dependency on gas imports and the growth in renewable energy.

At present, the company inve-sts about £1.5bn a year - of which two-thirds is spent in the UK on the upgrading of the power networks and replacement of gas mains. But National Grid plans to increase that by £500m a year over the medium term.

The company is investing £200m this year to connect the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Milford Haven, South Wales, to the grid and £100m to link up the Norwegian pipeline from the Orman Lange gas field. National Grid is also investing £350m over the next three years to expand its LNG import terminal at the Isle of Grain on top of the £150m already spent on it. National Grid is testing the market to see whether a further expansion of Grain is justified, which could involve further spending of £150m to £200m.

In addition to the increase in spending on gas transmission, the company is planning to invest between £700m and £800m over three years to cope with the big increase in electricity being fed into the transmission network from renewable energy projects such as wind farms. Many of these are in Scotland but the primary market for their power is England, meaning the transmission system needs to be strengthened to handle the increased throughput.
There have been widespread fears the UK could run short of gas this winter because of a lack of storage and transmission capacity in the event of a prolonged and severe cold snap. This could force the Grid to cut off industrial users to safeguard supplies to domestic consumers.

Roger Urwin, National Grid's chief executive, said he was confident the system could withstand a very cold winter. But he admitted there might need to be a "demand side response" - price rises to choke back consumption and the suspension of supplies to industrial users on interruptible contracts.

He was speaking as National Grid announced an 11 per cent increase in pre-tax profits for the first half of the year and a 20 per cent rise in the interim dividend to 10.2p. The group returned £2bn of cash to shareholders in August after the £5.8bn sale of four local gas distribution networks.
Also in this section

[oniabsta] 18/11/2005 07:32

Todays telegraph

Life's a gas for booming National Grid, so turn up the heat and join the party

Energy distributor National Grid powered ahead at half-time with better than expected profits. Star performers were UK transmission, US distribution and the wireless unit.



The company is generating so much cash that it can easily afford to step up investment spending by a third this year to £2billion. Roger Urwin, the chief executive, intends to keep it at that level for the foreseeable future, which looks eminently sensible.

Half of Britain's gas will come from abroad by the end of the decade, so much of the spending will go on landing and connecting the smelly stuff brought in on ships from overseas.

The wind farms being built to help us hit those Kyoto targets will also need connecting into the national electricity transmission system.

With most companies, big spending tends to mean less jam for shareholders, but when utilities invest it automatically adds to the asset base on which they make a return.

Thus National Grid has raised the half-way payout by 20pc. It is sticking with its plan to increase the payout by 7pc for the year, but the half-year rise reflects last year's 20pc hike.

Profits are weighted to the second half because of the winter demand for energy - analysts expect around £2.7billion to £2.8billion to have poured in by the full year, up from £1.1billion in the first half.

At 538p, up 4, the shares are selling off a forward earnings multiple of at 12, which is pretty cheap for the sector.

With a chunky dividend yield of 4.9pc to boot the stock is a buy.

[tole] 17/11/2005 19:23

National Grid's interim numbers were also well received - and its shares rose 4p to 538p. In the 6 months to September 30th, pre-tax profits rose 18% to 776 million pounds, with earnings per share up 17% to 16.9p. The interim dividend was hiked by 20% to 10.2p and the group said that its still targeted a 7% increase in the full-year dividend. The company was upbeat on its prospects. It said that profit growth was expected to be driven by achieving further efficiency gains, volume growth in the US and the returns on planned investment in its current businesses. The group's total annual investment was projected to grow by one-third to 2 billion pounds and remain at that level over the medium term.

[a0002577] 17/11/2005 09:00

An interesting - and reasonably good set of interims. City liked it with a sharp markup in the share price Dividend is :

"An interim dividend of 10.2p per ordinary share ($0.8816 per American Depositary Share (ADS)) will be paid on 25 January 2006 to shareholders on the register as at 2 December 2005"

[rara] 08/11/2005 16:37

Shoot, that was a vicious end to the day, -8.5pts, back under 520 again which isn't good.

[cheekycharlie] 07/11/2005 10:47

I doubt this to be a takeover target, could be just riding on the good news and the possible overdone drop in the share price.

[rara] 07/11/2005 10:38

Thanks for that Gateside, I have lost my memo notes since changing the epic code and not been able to get on NG's site for some reason.
The other reason they should rise is the possible merger of Scottish Power.

[gateside] 04/11/2005 20:05

Could have good run up to Interim results on the 17th Nov

[rara] 04/11/2005 20:02

Pushing against the resistance at 520, with a bit of luck should get through at 3rd attempt.

[rara] 02/11/2005 16:47

A0002577
Thanks for the link, I'll check it out when time permits.

I was going to post a note about how the double bottom theory had failed only to see at the end of day it's still on.
I wished I'd been in to top up some more at 506p, but I can't win them all however hard I try.

[a0002577] 01/11/2005 13:18

rara : have a look at this thread as well High Yield Portfolio Stocks (HYP).

I try to put up useful info there on all stocks of this kind.

[rara] 01/11/2005 12:00

A0002577
thanks for the UU. info' I'll take a look.