Well put Pierre |
Yes 1k, ng. will benefit from all this crazy spend of customers' money. The regulator (i.e. the gov) allow a return on capital, so the more ng. spends (or more correctly is ordered to spend on pylons and other guff necessary purely for the daft attempt at implementation of net zero - it'll never happen!). iirc there's 60bn about to be spent by ng. with 30b in the uk over the next few years guaranteeing higher profits for us. As you say, the return ng. is allowed is collected from a markup on traded electricity. It's really unlike any other business, low risk yet gteed profits to come. But I'd personally like profits to come from implementing a sensible efficient grid infrastructure, and not a grid driven by various political agendas. |
LLB, the true economics are very similar to those of a home owner with a solar panel which periodically provides 'free' electricity, but who is never without electricity because power is always available from conventional generation through the mains. For him the solar electricity is a periodic bonus. But if he tried to rely on solar without a mains supply, even if that worked for 95% of the time and had to buy, maintain and operate a back up diesel generator to cover the other 5% of the time, the economics would be entirely different. As you say, you can't back up a windmill with a second windmill, or a solar panel with another panel, and battery storage is extremely expensive and inefficient.
Probably NG shareholders will be about the only winners. NG is broadly speaking allowed to charge on a 'cost plus' basis, so the more expenditure it embarks upon to adapt the grid to the crazy wind and solar model, the larger its profits will be. |
1Knocker, we have a power matched grid, demand equals supply at all times, you cannot make more than you need or you have to store it somewhere..
Good luck firing up the back up windmills and solar to support the nation at tea time peak demand when the cookers and kettles go on.. :o) |
The simple truth is that any source of electricity generation you can't turn on when you need the power costs the earth (literally and metaphorically) because you have to have a parallel generation system which you CAN turn on.
The economics of solar and wind which we are pedalled ignore the costs of the back up system, and the costs of the completely different grid system which a solar /wind system requires if solar /wind are to replace rather than merely supplement gas, coal and nuclear generation. Hydrogen generation from surplus green energy does not change that equation.
The course y=upon which we are set is certain to result in UK energy being internationally uncompetitive, and as energy is a component of all industrial production and all other economic activity we can look forward to a permanently poorer as well as a periodically colder and darker future. |
According to hxxps://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ we are currently only getting 3.66% (1.39 GW) from wind and solar to supply a demand of 37.42GW. DRAX is maxed out providing 7.88% and our creaking nuclear- 12.54%. For the past week wind and solar have averaged about 2.5 GW ~ 5%. Back of the envelope numbers on hydrogen are given at hxxps://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2021/6/11/some-rules-of-thumb-of-the-hydrogen-economy. 2GW for 2hours would not scratch the surface if the temperatures drop and a nuclear plant has to go off-line.
I have installed a stand-by generator at Chateau Minley in readiness for the inevitable. |
It just strikes me that it makes blinding sense to use surplus renewable power to produce green hydrogen rather than pay to turn the windmills off - which I think we'd all agree is madness?
At the very least that green hydrogen could be used to power the burgeoning heavy transport that is looking to use hydrogen - see companies like Hyzon and Nikola - power data centres - see the likes of Bloom energy.
I won't labour the point on here, but I believe that hydrogen will be part of the future energy picture, along with SMRs and eventually I assume, fusion. |
Have you put any numbers to your views on hydrogen skinny?Say the aim is 2GW of extra power for 2 hours to see us through one winter peak.How much hydrogen is required for that. And at what cost.?I think you'll meet scalability problems there. (i.e. yes hydrogen could be used to generate electricity but it's not pragmatic to do that on the massive scale the grid needs). It's not as if hydrogen has somehow escaped the attention of our brilliant grid engineers now is it. As always there may be a sensible niche use for hydrogen. Or it may attract massive subsidies even though a poor solution, as so many things do these days. |
skinny
in their dreams i think,god help us if we have a cold winter.. |
Nothing new, but surely worth consideration? |
 Even 'working properly', windmills are intermittent, so virtually fa use on a power matching grid.
Closing the last coal station means its (instructable) power will simply be replaced with instructable (i.e. not intermittent) power from either gas (fossil isn't it?) or interconnectors (nuke from France, likely coal indirectly from Germany etc).
But when the temperature gets very cold when we need generation the most, it's likely the countries on the other end of the interconnectors will also be facing a shortage, so they'll (obviously) stop exporting to the uk. See how things pan out this winter and pray we don't Europe doesn't get a couple of weeks of sub zero tems all over.
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Secondly, I'm not sure it's appreciated much that with the current and growing penetration levels of windmills, often we generate too much power. And that means ng. tells windfarms to stop generating. This results in constraint payments to windfarms. More windmills, more constraint payments.
The amazing fact of wind constraint payments is that they exceed generation payments - i.e. if windmills don't generate when they can, they get paid more from producing nothing! It's a mad mad world in the uk at least. |
i see we are importing even more power from abroad,so even if they get these wondrous windmills to ever work properly surely the amount of power needed in the future will never ever come from them as electricity is supposed to take over from fossil fuels..? |
The cost difference between overground to underground must be significant, but when it comes to doing maintenance, upgrades and any repairs overground has clear advantages, you can see the problems and get to them to carry out fixes..Expect slow and steady growth, and we are here for years to come of safe reliable progressive dividends.. |
MPs push back against anti-pylon lobbying despite local opposition
Letter by 61 Labour MPs supports ‘cheapest and most pragmatic’ plan for new electricity infrastructure |
anhar;
Your post 9846: The idea that "yanks" sell the share down out of some sort of conspiratorial personal animosity towards it is ludicrous.
WTF are you on about? No one said there is personal animosity towards NG.
Its true to say that there are patterns that do repeat themselves and this is reflected in the ADRs that are ‘shorted’;.
I don’t personally agree with Hedge Funds ‘shorting̵7;. But the ‘hedgies’; want it all their way and moan like screaming children when they get caught out, eg, years ago with Porsche & VW scenario, google headlines if you don’t remember:
Hedge funds lost billions, and VW became the most valuable company in the world while Porsche tried to take them over. |
For those who noticed a pattern that it always drops at a certain time, then short the f out of it and get very rich very quickly. Only try that and you'd likely find it rises when you do! |
Quite right. Pro traders in big caps like NG., whether in the US, UK or elsewhere, are interested only in making money and are entitled to trade how they wish towards that end. The idea that "yanks" sell the share down out of some sort of conspiratorial personal animosity towards it is ludicrous.
And as Dartboard suggests, if this was remotely true then other pros would trade against them for certain profits so that the conspiracy would be arbed out.
Also there's a nasty element of anti US attitude being expressed here, as if "yanks" are worse than Brits or other nationalities as traders. The message seems to be that "yanks" are bad for NG. whilst Brits of course are good. What utter rubbish. NG. is a public company and anyone, whichever country in which they are located, can trade it any way they want. It's just part of the overall market.
The whole silly story is because some people can't bear the feeling of their shares sometimes declining and look around for a scapegoat to blame. |
US traders will trade on their daily indicators ... moving into and out of utilities if sentiment is positive or negative on that day, which is why you'll see a move at lunch. If there's a massive conspiracy to dump on NG at lunchtime and you believe that ... then your strategy should be to buy puts every morning and sell in the afternoon. You don't do that because it doesn't work. |
absolutely right Uty. The behaviour is accentuated when the US is only 4 hrs behind us rather than the normal 5, ie New York Time. In the spring they go to Summer time around early March (this year 10th March) and back one hour early Nov (this year 3rd Nov). We follow the EU change of clocks, last Sunday in March - forward last sunday in Oct, back.
Obviously this year the volatility is worse due to the terrible budget and the US Election.
Markets don't like the budget. £40 billion tax and debt with debt increasing year after year for the term of this parliament. They want growth. Where is the Growth? As someone said on another thread, you cannot expect Growth before reforming the practices. Before you chuck borrowed money you first need to change the culture, the Workers need to work harder and smarter first.
With increasing costs for Companies to employ people, the Employee must make themselves employable. |
anhar,
Post 9839 look at yesterday’s time of steep descent, ie, 13:30 uk time.
This week the US (eastern time is only 4 hrs behind till next Sunday when they fall back one hour). It was always on the negative but come 13:30 the descent was even more pronounced.
I was in the US three times this year and whilst I was in NY I met traders who confirmed the strategy.
Been watching NG since Privatisation and then NG’s float in 1995. Holding stock round the world, over the last three decade, you get a feel for expected behaviour. 😂🤷 |
Must be sheer coincidence that the share price falls after the US market opens ;) |
Of course there is something you can do about it. I've already sacrificed the goat but I'm still on the look out for the virgin.
On a slightly more serious note, there will be risk averse people who are reducing shareholdings around the US elections. Most people, including myself, just weather the macro economics and provide stability to the markets because we're not smart enough to know better but sufficiently smart to know we don't know. |
Nonsense. Almost all share price moves are random for big caps like NG..
Repeatedly blaming some mysterious malign "yanks" for price falls, as if they have it in for the company, seems like superstition to me.
Shares go up and down all the time for no reason and anyway, even if you believe in malign forces at work, there's nothing you can do about it. |
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