Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[themoreiseeyou] 17/1/2009 09:43

Is this company really likely to pay a 9% dividend in the current economic climate? This is what they said at the last full year results:

Based on the Board's confidence in the Group's prospects and the greater
visibility of rail earnings following the completion of the recent round of rail
franchising, we have announced today a commitment to increase our dividend by
10% per annum for the next three years. This reflects the Board's confidence in
the Group's future prospects.

It would be quite something if they maintained this.

[themoreiseeyou] 15/1/2009 15:33

There's a small piece in the telegraph that suggests National express will need to raise cash through an equity placing. This doesn't seem to square with a director recently spending nearly £7 million pounds on shares at an average of £4.75p. Any thoughts.

[ozz786] 10/1/2009 12:39

I think we are going to see a definate pronounced bounce from here, straight to £6.50. There are no major negatives for this company and makes it a wonderful buying opportunity.

[nigel_man] 05/1/2009 11:56

I think the director's are buying here because these have fallen so low in recent months that they are now very attractive with a 7.5% odd yield!. The pre-close statements were very positive. The north american operations in particular are performing very well along with the spanish operations. In fact I cannot see any major negative, Transport is not totally immune to recession, but people still need to travel. We should see an execellent set of results in February. Good purchase from here up to £6.

[pugugly] 05/1/2009 09:24

call-logger. Thanks.

[call-logger] 04/1/2009 10:52

Pages 87 - 92

[pugugly] 04/1/2009 10:07

glenowen:> your 23. After reading of the Director's buy in the Sunday Times today just having a look at NEX.

I think you have put your finger on the reason why this one has fallen so far (and imo will probably continue to fall)

Very high level of debt and as you have said in the wrong currencies plus hedge likley to work against the coy. I need to check details of the hedge but it must be a major negative.

I need to dig and see maturiy of debt and interest rates payable.

anyone know ?

[gateside] 09/12/2008 12:43

National Express Group PLC (the "Group") announces that the Group's pre-close trading
update will be issued on Wednesday 17 December,
2008.

[glenowen] 26/11/2008 23:02

The company has committed to maintaining the dividend for the next three years, so on a yield of 7.5% plus at the moment, the shares look good value. Mind you, if things turn bad, the management might be forced to renege on their promise.

Has anyone examined the accounts and know whether the decline of sterling against the dollar is generally a good thing or not, regarding the N America business? A lot of the debt is in $dollars.

Similarly, whether the slump in the oil price is good for NEX? I recall from somewhere that it had contracted to buy a lot of fuel at over $100 per barrel.

[nigel_man] 26/11/2008 14:40

I suppose there is an argument that in a recession people will spend more time at home. Think these are very much a long term play. Come 2012 and the olympics I expect to treble my investment.

[themoreiseeyou] 04/11/2008 16:47

I sold out at 575. perhaps too late. It fell to 545. Most of the other bombed out shares have risen at least 20% on the recent bounce, but not the transport sector. Its time for a bounce must surely come soon? Most of the stocks are paying a tasty dividend. Any thoughts?

[keith200563] 04/11/2008 14:31

quiet board

[sussexseagull] 29/10/2008 13:40

I hold NEX but post most of my 'transport stuff' on the Stagecoach (SGC) threads.

Suffice to say that National Express haven't been affected by the 'financial crisis', as whenever I've recently used them NEX's trains are pretty much chocca full.

..........But 'the market' like to pretend otherwise of course - hence the sharp price fall.

'The market' has little idea - even less than the BBC when it comes to financial matters.

Bunch of muppets imo. But they're fans of Lehman Brothers apparently.

And look what happened to them!

Need I say more? :-)

[sussexseagull] 29/10/2008 13:39

I hold NEX but post most of my 'transport stuff' on the Stagecoach (SGC) threads.

Suffice to say that National Express haven't been affected by the 'financial crisis', as whenever I've recently used them NEX's trains are pretty much chocca full.

..........But 'the market' like to pretend otherwise of course - hence the sharp price fall.

'The market' has little idea - even less than the BBC when it comes to financial matters.

Bunch of muppets imo. But they're fans of Lehman Brothers apparently.

And look what happened to them!

Need I say more? :-)

[gateside] 24/10/2008 16:49

National Express benefits from downturn
By Peter Marsh

Published: October 24 2008 08:34 | Last updated: October 24 2008 08:34

National Express Group has reported a strong first nine months of its financial year, confirming that the public transport sector appears to be one of the few beneficiaries of the economic squeeze.

The train and bus operator said that revenues in the nine months to the end of September on a like-for-like basis were up 9 per cent on the equivalent time in 2007 for its rail routes, 7 per cent for buses and 5 per cent for coach services.

Richard Bowker, chief executive, said the company remained "on track" to hit its targets for "strong year on year earnings growth".

While warning that public transport operators were "not immune" from a downturn, he said there was evidence that consumers were "becoming increasingly focused on securing the best value for money they can" when travelling. This meant that many were turning to travelling by rail or bus or coach, particularly when rising fuel costs are becoming an added burden.

The company has particularly benefited from taking over the licence to run one of the UK's most heavily used rail routes – the north-south link between London's King's Cross and Edinburgh that it started operating last December.

Revenues on this route in the first nine months of 2008 were up 11 per cent, National Express said, while revenues for its East Anglia route had risen 6 per cent on the same basis.

The company said its transport operations in Spain and North America had also performed well. But in the UK, National Express sounded one frisson of concern by saying its coach service between Stansted Airport and the centre of London, which is affected from heavy competition fro a convenient rival rail route, had continued "to show the slower growth" that the company had previously noted.

In July, the company reported that pre-tax profit in the first half of 2008 came in at £90m, before exceptional items and related charges, up 13.9 per cent on the same period the year before. Revenues had risen 4.4 per cent to £1.4bn .

In recent months, a number of other public transport operators, including Stagecoach, Go-Ahead and FirstGroup, have come out with statements suggesting that, if harder times bite in the coming months, they will do reasonably well as people switch to the lower costs of public transport as opposed to using their cars.

Meanwhile, Alexander Dennis, Britain's biggest bus maker, has also reported a strong period for sales and orders as the public transport companies invest in new vehicles.

[gateside] 24/10/2008 07:36

National Express stays on track

Bus and train operator National Express said it remains on track for a strong year on year earnings growth and management's expectations for the full year remain unchanged, with the operational performance of rail franchises continuing to thrive.

The group achieved year to date like for like revenue growth of 11% on National Express East Coast and 6% on National Express East Anglia resulting in 9% across the whole rail portfolio.

The East Coast franchise achieved 91.2% punctuality in the 4 weeks to 12th October, the highest average achieved in a single month since privatisation in 1996.

The company said bus operations continue to trade well with year to date like for like revenue growth of 7%.

Whilst services to Stansted airport continue to show the slower growth previously noted, our other coach routes have shown strong growth. Year to date, like for like coach revenue is up 5%.

National Express has decided to exit its Dot2Dot start up operation, as revenue growth has not been as strong as anticipated.

In Spain, growth seen in the first half of the year has continued despite the economy in Spain coming under considerable pressure.

North American business has a strongly defensive revenue stream and in the recent bidding season National Express retained more than 95% of our existing contracts.

'The travel industry is not immune to an economic slowdown and we are seeing evidence of consumers becoming increasingly focused on securing the best value for money they can,' CEO, Richard Bowker, said in a statement.

[bundmar] 23/10/2008 17:01

they always deliver -strong company with a proven track record, should benefit from the tightening of money.

[themoreiseeyou] 19/10/2008 11:19

National Express, the train and bus operator, is on course to deliver the
improved services it promised in its successful 1.4 billion pound tender last
year for the GNER East Coast rail line. The company gives a trading update on
Thursday and is expected to be upbeat about the prospects for the rail line,
which has been renamed National Express East Coast. The company is expected to
say that passenger numbers on the London to Edinburgh line have grown and it is
on course to deliver full-year profits of about 200 million pounds, in line with
City expectations.

[themoreiseeyou] 15/10/2008 12:14

Any reason why transport stock are looking so weak? They have sunk with the market and have not bounced with it.

[joeainsworth] 29/9/2008 23:54

please shoot me now

[themoreiseeyou] 29/9/2008 16:48

Exactly what has the transport sector done wrong?

[themoreiseeyou] 25/9/2008 21:33

Any ideas as to the current weakness in the shareprice?

[value viper] 23/9/2008 20:53

looks decent value to me here fwiw , coupled with a degree of technical support.

[gateside] 22/9/2008 10:03

I agree that it's not, so I bought a few this morning.

[themoreiseeyou] 22/9/2008 09:05

Not reflected in the current shareprice performance.