Namakwa Diamonds Share Discussion Threads

[red is in] 08/9/2011 17:06

JR50, feel free to correct the figures in my previous post if they are out. Thanks

[andy] 08/9/2011 16:48

The Merlion - 8 Sep'11 - 16:06 - 352 of 354

"interested in seeing what you are basing your judgement on"

Andy, I have not cast any judgement. I have merely questioned ABtwo and h

is judgement that 90% of Kao is uneconomic. I still wait for his basis.

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I was referring to how you came to your investment decision here, not you casting judgement.

He says one thing, you say the other, I just thought it would help if you put down the facts as you see them, and then he can do the same, and people will be able to make an informed opinion.

This is reference to him saying its 90% uneconomic, and you saying that is incorrect.

[jr50] 08/9/2011 16:46

topnotch

RED IS IN >>Thank you for your postings - Very helpful

..........................................................

it would have been if it was correct! 'red is in' would you like to go over those figures again, or would you like the embarrassment of correction, the former would be the better IMHO

anyway, hi to all holders and non holders on here, just added this share to my portfolio, and look forward to conversing with you all.

best regards

John

[topnotch] 08/9/2011 16:26

RED IS IN >>Thank you for your postings - Very helpful

[the merlion] 08/9/2011 16:22

By the way, welcome back RT, BB, C&C and many more with another one of your multiple aliases here and on iii. Glad to see you are still part of the team.

Thanks for your posting--very misleading!

Obviously most will not know this due to limited availability of the original details but I do suggest you brush up with the facts. Try looking at 19.2 on page 144 first before you make your incorrect calculations and also read all details of today.

There is no 60/40 split, there is no 10.2p and they is no instalments but the certainly is a huge premium of 85% to the Sept 7th share price

The simple fact is the loan is paid off by issue of 61,750,000 shares at 19.5p, at 85% premium regardless of how much you try to deny it, in 2 tranches of 11m and 50.75m to make GBP12m or US$19.33m (US$19.5m in the RNS today) which takes into account the original loan terms stated in today's RNS as "any related unrealised and accrued profits" or clearly highlighted in the 2010 prospectus.

All the details are very clear if you understand them correctly have have no ulterior motive.

I neither have the time nor the effort to correct the blatant misleading bashing and I am done here guys. The bashers have ruined this BB and regardless of the facts they will always out number the honest. Be very wary of these very envious hyenas.

The proof of the pudding will be seen in the future and at such time I will return with a smug grin.

Bye for now and very best of luck to the genuine honest posters who actually hold and tough luck to the basher who sold at a loss and his misleading multi membered team mates ;-)

[the merlion] 08/9/2011 16:06

"interested in seeing what you are basing your judgement on"

Andy, I have not cast any judgement. I have merely questioned ABtwo and his judgement that 90% of Kao is uneconomic. I still wait for his basis.

As for the other negative bashers I seriously suggest you re-read all the details of the RNS with full understanding as what you are implying is a very serious offence and it is not in the companies, nor all involved, best interests to do this.

I fully understand some have lost out here and there is a very bitter team in action but quit the BS guys and if you can not understand the details please do not make negative noises about it.

[red is in] 08/9/2011 16:04

I think its more questionable reporting from the company rather than a shrewd move on the part of Jarvirne

Here's the actual situation as I see it:
Jarvirne agreed to convert the £10.5m they're owed by NAD via the following:
> 60% in equity (£6.3m) at yesterday's closing price = 61,750,000 shares @10.2p
> 40% in cash (£4.2m) to be paid in 12 monthly installments starting in 12 months
> agreed to set up a 2-year £25m loan facility with interest rate at effective 7%

Here's how its been reported (very questionable behaviour from the Board):
Jarvirne to convert £12m including previously unannounced £1.5m settlement payment
> £12m in equity at effective price of 19.5p, a premium of 85% (LOL)
> agreed to set up a 2-year £25m loan facility with Year 2 interest rate at 24% (LOL)

[nathand] 08/9/2011 15:48

Bingo!

Jarvirne are not as naive as the RNS suggests, in fact they are very, very shrewd.

[red is in] 08/9/2011 15:42

Nathand, thank you for the correction

Quite right, the liability was said in the previous update to be circa $17m (£10.5m)

The $19.5m (£12.0m) from today's update is quoted as "an agreed settlement amount"

Therefore its a bit of a stretch for the company to claim the loan conversion is at 19.5p. 61,750,000 shares have been issued at an effective 17p (to cancel out the £10.5m liability) plus a settlement payment of £1.5m, which the company has added together to bump up the price to a headline figure of 19.5p

Some will say 17p is still a premium but that's before taking into account the bonus interest payment of $6.8m (£4.2m) payable Sept 2012-2013

Subtracting that from the Trading & Beneficiation investment liability (£10.5m - £4.2m) effectively means 61,750,000 shares were issued in lieu of £6.3m, or 10.2p per share. In other words at the market price and not at a premium at all, as has been reported.

[andy] 08/9/2011 15:33

The Merlion,

I would be interested in seeing what you are basing your judgement on, it would help people in their understanding of the company and possibly make an investment case after today's news.

[nathand] 08/9/2011 15:32

Totally agree with the sentiment RED IS IN however the liability was $17M I believe.

I cannot see any way that NAD will have the US$40M principal to hand in two years whilst servicing the interest as you have stated. The sales proceeds from the alluvials will be minimal as they are forced sellers in a narrow market.

Fantastic deal for Jarvirne terrible for shareholder value... with the possible exception of those who have taken advantage of the short term volatility.

All in my opinion, I no longer hold.

Good luck.

[red is in] 08/9/2011 15:16

Despite the rise and apparent placing at a premium, on closer inspection this looks a poor deal for ordinary shareholders and is likely to be sold into.

130m shares in issue less than a year ago and post-EGM there will now be nearly 300m

Along with the dilution a $40m loan facility on unfavorable terms with year 1 interest payable via 9m shares at an effective interest rate of 7% (assuming the figure in the loan conversion and full drawdown in Nov) so more or less the norm for large loans. Year 2 however is at a vastly inflated 24% for an annual interest liability of $9.6m

Applying the 7% interest rate to year 2 would have come to $2.8m so the deal for $9.6m effectively gives Jarvirne an annual bonus of $6.8m, payable monthly presumably out of the loan proceeds. At the end of the 2 year term the likelihood is NAD won't have the ability to repay so it will need to be refinanced for another term, where a similar interest rate may apply with Jarvirne taking their sizable annual bonus from the pot.

All this just to cancel out a £12m liability. A rum deal for shareholders.

[mj19] 08/9/2011 15:15

whos short from here? I bought in today...

[nathand] 08/9/2011 15:12

I've also been frustrated when asking ABtwo for background information regarding posts over on the FDI thread however perhaps this is due to the transient nature of his/her visits.

However I have gained a respect for ABtwo's insights and opinions even if I have not always readily agreed with them.

Therefore it may prove a better option for all if The Merlion could present his information on Kao in order to refute the claims.

He knows a lot more than you think after all.

[the merlion] 08/9/2011 14:58

ABtwo,

The details are there for all to see if you take the time.

Try not to teach me how to suck eggs. I know a lot more that you think.

Lets see your information on the Kao deposit for each of the units they plan to mine (i.e. grade cpht, diamond value $/ct & cost per tonne to process) and how you come to the conclusion that 90% is uneconomic as you previously stated.

Since you are the one in doubt I suggest it is you that unearths the facts that concern you and also prove up your comments.

[abtwo] 08/9/2011 14:40

Well Merlion, I would like to see your information on the Kao deposit for each of the units they plan to mine (i.e. grade cpht, diamond value $/ct & cost per tonne to process). But you are correct my previous comment should have read "in my opinion 90% of the Kao deposit is a loss maker".

[induna123] 08/9/2011 13:49

This Liam makes me laugh. He waited all day yesterday, ready to "pounce", quoting my comment when the share price hit 10 again. Durrrrr, I already sold you numpty, just what was you trying to prove?

You must have been seething when I pulled you up on your fantasy comment of 5/7p. I bet you had my post copied and pasted at the ready, waiting all day. LOL


Keep waiting to close your short at 7p Liam. You're a star

[the merlion] 08/9/2011 12:01

"Anyone have some facts on the Kao mine" and "For what it is worth 90% of the Kao deposit is a loss maker"

ABtwo, we usually agree but now you are talking utter rubbish so why are you asking for facts when you have already come to your conclusion.

[topnotch] 08/9/2011 11:13

Induna123 >> MTA Looking very good - but as most of my decisions are based on closing prices (and if it continues the way its doing) then I would be looking sometime next week for an entry level (also gives me a bit more time for research).

Once again thanks for the heads up on MTA and good luck with this one!

[topnotch] 08/9/2011 11:02

Bummer!

Look at RXP go....

[the merlion] 08/9/2011 10:59

Very bitter comments.

Just goes to show how malignant the envious can be.

[123asd] 08/9/2011 10:45

In addition, Eduard Prutnik is an anagram for "Kinda Ruptured".