Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[jong] 24/3/2016 15:36

Schroders have been topping up since the results I see !

[wilk1] 24/3/2016 15:22

JonG - just the points I've been making whilst accumulating from 225p down over. Now it's reward time.

[jong] 24/3/2016 15:16

As summarised in a recent share trading recommendation by Redmayne Bentley - with a historic P-E ratio of 6.8; net debt a little over £8m and a dividend yield of 9.6%, the recent negative share price action seems somewhat overdone having more than halved from over £4 before the Autumn 2015 announcement.

[pictureframe] 24/3/2016 14:56

strong bounce today

[smallcapinvestor1] 24/3/2016 14:56

Eezymunny you are correct ignore my last post i will get back to you.

[pictureframe] 24/3/2016 14:13

Looking at the price action today I suspect we will see some value seeking institutions coming on board.

[corrientes] 24/3/2016 13:00

Why is he so interested ? He seems to be neither flesh nor foul. Maybe he works for a rival company.

[linton5] 24/3/2016 12:51

I'll second that👃㈅4;

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 12:44

But you simply can't assume that a 10% hit to group profits is a worst case scenario. That's just daft IMO. As I say, the company should IMO clarify this. You lot are just making up numbers as you go along.

[smallcapinvestor1] 24/3/2016 12:08

If you assume a 10% hit to group profits as the worst case scenario than you see that the doomsday scenario is not going to occur. I notice a large seller cleared yesterday the volume was 2.5m. This overhang clearance is encouraging too.The draft consultation due out any time now will end the uncertainty and be a major catalyst for the shares to move back up again.

[imranawan] 24/3/2016 11:46

smallcapinvestor - thanks for the clarification re: revenues affected, but I think EezyMunny is referring to what level of profitability these claims generate. This is what he means by the company not providing this information.

I don't have a position in NAH.

[smallcapinvestor1] 24/3/2016 11:36

I can provide clarity on this issue. All road traffic accident claims including whiplash make up about 17% of NAHL revenue and about 10% of GROUP revenue. If the entire segment vanished the impact on the group would be 10% only, so more than priced in already. The segment won't vanish it will thrive and NAH will still process the claims in one form or another.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 09:55

Usual story. Unthinking PI's bashing a poster with a bearish angle. Pathetic.

As I said I'm neither bullish or bearish. Just think there's a bearish angle which can't be analysed at all because of the company's failure to give a view on outlook post possible banning of whiplash claims.

[wilk1] 24/3/2016 09:33

Read the results and stop deramping if you've no position. Your concerns are already in the price, end of.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 09:23

Well no, wilk, earnings may well fall off a cliff in 2017. By how much we can't tell. That's my whole point!

[wilk1] 24/3/2016 09:14

Eezy, earnings are growing year on year, can you not read. Albeit, not as quickly as originally anticipated. The share price has halved on growing earnings. The market will tell us what's right and the current share price action wAs chart driven to go back to the last low and let all the city boys in cheap. Now they've loaded up we are going back up quickly. Now do us all a favour here if your not invested and have an early Easter.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 08:57

Indeed my numbers are just fantasy Touche. We don't have a clue what's correct because the company has decided not to tell you the shareholders.

Oh, and whiplash claims ARE probably going to go away from NAH, no???!!! That's the whole point!

It's impossible to feel bullish or bearish here IMO because important info is not being made available...

[touche] 23/3/2016 21:12

Not a good assessment of the numbers.From that report...200k enquiries received to call centres75k vetted and passed to panelOf which 20k are road traffic actsIf NAHL have the same proportion of Whiplash claims as the total market then 58% (see table 2) of this 20k are for whiplash say 12kSo 12k out of 75k claims (16%) are for whiplash one could assume. It is also worth noting that whiplash claims will not stop in the future either so this may only affect say 8-10% of claims!Need to understand the profitability of these claims but I think market reaction is way overdone here

[eezymunny] 23/3/2016 18:18

OK corrientes. That report is here, no?



NAH said they had 13,806 whiplash cases in 2012. I would guess it's higher now as the whole thing has become so widespread. Shall we say 20,000 pa now (just a guess). As these are nearly always paid they probably get a referral fee for most of these. Shall we say £750 a pop? That gives you the entire £15m op profit of the NAH division.

I mean I'm just playing with numbers that have only guesswork as their basis - but you can't say IMO that that report does anything to alleviate the bear case. I remain of the view that the company should be giving you shareholders more info here about a big chunk of business that will probably disappear in 2017.

[wilk1] 23/3/2016 13:30

Linton5, great entry point, good luck with your investment. Be nice to be back over £2, I've a feeling it could happen very quickly with some mates rates for the large buyers at below 190.

[linton5] 23/3/2016 13:24

I've helped a little,right off to work for me

[wilk1] 23/3/2016 12:28

Volume, that's what we need, either to clear a seller or a big buyer. 1.2m traded so far