Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[pictureframe] 24/3/2016 14:13

Looking at the price action today I suspect we will see some value seeking institutions coming on board.

[corrientes] 24/3/2016 13:00

Why is he so interested ? He seems to be neither flesh nor foul. Maybe he works for a rival company.

[linton5] 24/3/2016 12:51

I'll second that👃㈅4;

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 12:44

But you simply can't assume that a 10% hit to group profits is a worst case scenario. That's just daft IMO. As I say, the company should IMO clarify this. You lot are just making up numbers as you go along.

[smallcapinvestor1] 24/3/2016 12:08

If you assume a 10% hit to group profits as the worst case scenario than you see that the doomsday scenario is not going to occur. I notice a large seller cleared yesterday the volume was 2.5m. This overhang clearance is encouraging too.The draft consultation due out any time now will end the uncertainty and be a major catalyst for the shares to move back up again.

[imranawan] 24/3/2016 11:46

smallcapinvestor - thanks for the clarification re: revenues affected, but I think EezyMunny is referring to what level of profitability these claims generate. This is what he means by the company not providing this information.

I don't have a position in NAH.

[smallcapinvestor1] 24/3/2016 11:36

I can provide clarity on this issue. All road traffic accident claims including whiplash make up about 17% of NAHL revenue and about 10% of GROUP revenue. If the entire segment vanished the impact on the group would be 10% only, so more than priced in already. The segment won't vanish it will thrive and NAH will still process the claims in one form or another.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 09:55

Usual story. Unthinking PI's bashing a poster with a bearish angle. Pathetic.

As I said I'm neither bullish or bearish. Just think there's a bearish angle which can't be analysed at all because of the company's failure to give a view on outlook post possible banning of whiplash claims.

[wilk1] 24/3/2016 09:33

Read the results and stop deramping if you've no position. Your concerns are already in the price, end of.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 09:23

Well no, wilk, earnings may well fall off a cliff in 2017. By how much we can't tell. That's my whole point!

[wilk1] 24/3/2016 09:14

Eezy, earnings are growing year on year, can you not read. Albeit, not as quickly as originally anticipated. The share price has halved on growing earnings. The market will tell us what's right and the current share price action wAs chart driven to go back to the last low and let all the city boys in cheap. Now they've loaded up we are going back up quickly. Now do us all a favour here if your not invested and have an early Easter.

[eezymunny] 24/3/2016 08:57

Indeed my numbers are just fantasy Touche. We don't have a clue what's correct because the company has decided not to tell you the shareholders.

Oh, and whiplash claims ARE probably going to go away from NAH, no???!!! That's the whole point!

It's impossible to feel bullish or bearish here IMO because important info is not being made available...

[touche] 23/3/2016 21:12

Not a good assessment of the numbers.From that report...200k enquiries received to call centres75k vetted and passed to panelOf which 20k are road traffic actsIf NAHL have the same proportion of Whiplash claims as the total market then 58% (see table 2) of this 20k are for whiplash say 12kSo 12k out of 75k claims (16%) are for whiplash one could assume. It is also worth noting that whiplash claims will not stop in the future either so this may only affect say 8-10% of claims!Need to understand the profitability of these claims but I think market reaction is way overdone here

[eezymunny] 23/3/2016 18:18

OK corrientes. That report is here, no?



NAH said they had 13,806 whiplash cases in 2012. I would guess it's higher now as the whole thing has become so widespread. Shall we say 20,000 pa now (just a guess). As these are nearly always paid they probably get a referral fee for most of these. Shall we say £750 a pop? That gives you the entire £15m op profit of the NAH division.

I mean I'm just playing with numbers that have only guesswork as their basis - but you can't say IMO that that report does anything to alleviate the bear case. I remain of the view that the company should be giving you shareholders more info here about a big chunk of business that will probably disappear in 2017.

[wilk1] 23/3/2016 13:30

Linton5, great entry point, good luck with your investment. Be nice to be back over £2, I've a feeling it could happen very quickly with some mates rates for the large buyers at below 190.

[linton5] 23/3/2016 13:24

I've helped a little,right off to work for me

[wilk1] 23/3/2016 12:28

Volume, that's what we need, either to clear a seller or a big buyer. 1.2m traded so far

[corrientes] 23/3/2016 09:22

EezyMunny It might pay to read the Transport Committee's enquiry of April 2013 and NAH's submission where numbers are quoted. It doesn't at all look to me that whiplash claims are the raison d'etre for the company's existence, which is what i think you are inferring.The company would be silly to give a more in depth breakdown of market sensitive numbers to its competitors.

Anyway, I prefer to look at the future and I feel sure that the company is well advanced into implementing its diversification plans. As you say, we shall see.

[eezymunny] 23/3/2016 08:33

"Whiplash claims are not a significant factor in their results". On what basis do you say that topvest?

[salchow] 23/3/2016 08:15

I would have thought there would still be a very large market for claims of above £5,000. After all what is £5,000 nowadays in a legal claim context - absolute peanuts. I have explained that a broken arm 25 years ago created a claim that paid out £10,000 at that time!

Also if claims of less than £5,000 go to the small claims court will that make much difference. From my experience in past years (things may have changed) you could not get costs awarded for you in the small claims court so if someone sued you then you asked for this court. Expensive lawyers would then probably not want to get involved with such claims. However, there is still a claim to be made and while you or I may be confident about appearing before a court many people are not and they will need someone to represent them. This is where someone like NAHL can come in and offer a standardised service at a cheap cost. Surely it is better for someone to put in a claim for a couple of thousand and have to pay part out in fees rather than make no claim at all. Of course, very small claims for whiplash may become impossible but I find it hard to imagine that there is not still plenty of business to seek. The Government have already commented that there is nothing in the proposed legislation to prevent persons making valid claims for injuries suffered.

The main problem with this share is that there is nothing likely to make people want to buy for some considerable time. With the continuing doubts I cannot imagine too many dividend seekers going for this. All that holders can do is put it away and forget it.

[topvest] 22/3/2016 20:59

Whiplash claims are not a significant factor in their results. Non-road traffic and medical negligence are by far the biggest areas. They haven't been very clear in dealing with the issue of explaining, but are these two latter areas impacted by the different small claims procedure or not?

from the below it looks like they are.....presumably this means that lawyers are maybe not taking on some of the work that was referred to them previously...

"In November 2015, the Chancellor, in his Autumn Statement, announced, inter alia, proposals to restrict consumers' eligibility for compensation for low value whiplash injury, along with plans to consult on transferring PI claims of up to GBP5,000 to the small claims court. The proposals will be subject to a detailed period of consultation and we anticipate there will be some short-term market volatility whilst the regulatory position is clarified. We have seen a number of law firms decide to withdraw from the PI market as a consequence."

[eezymunny] 22/3/2016 20:26

But corrientes. 2016 is largely irrelevant. What mattes is how much profit will drop as and when these whiplash claims are outlawed (2017 onwards most likely). The current situation is a nonsense. Every driver in every little bump claims, and is as good as guaranteed to get a payout of a couple of grand. It's just cheaper for the insurers to pay out than to contest. I know people in the claims industry. The whole thing is a shambles and that's why the gov is planning to stop it. NAH should IMO give a clear indication of how much they make from whiplash claim so that you shareholders can get a handle on things. Given their silence on the matter, and the lack of director buying, I'm inclined to think that a very big % of their profits come from these claims. I may of course be wrong.