Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[zangdook] 24/4/2019 17:26

bc4
If you don't have anything to say, do not answer then easy!

[bc4] 24/4/2019 17:21

MR T. do not invest then easy!

[aleman] 24/4/2019 16:15

There is a very compelling reason for the cashflow pause. Setting up legal firms consumes cash!

Impending legal changes mean it's gone from a company that handles marketing and generates leads for legal firms, to setting up 50% owned joint-venture legal firms to now setting up a 100% owned legal firm. It takes time after the investment in legal cases for the legal settlements to come through and generate cash. However, if they get it right, profits, cashflow and dividend could eventually be even higher than before. The first joint venture is generating cash and the second one is starting to come on stream. The wholly owned subidiary has only just lauched and will take 12-18 months to become cash generative but cashflow overall looks to be back on a rising trend again and could end up better IF they choose the cases they take on well.

Crucially, NAH have great experience in filtering out unwanted cases when it was generating leads for other firms; the legal changes are causing some competitors to withdraw from its market; and the new 100% owned company is using modern online systems to engage with clients which could make it more efficient than some of the stodgier competitors that remain.

The shares fell because the market thought the legal changes might damage NAH's business. There are signs that the business has made the right changes and is going to recover and might even come out stronger than before - but we won't be sure of that for another year or two. It's clear the market is starting to believe the story, though.

[mr. t] 24/4/2019 15:13

I've just come across NAH following a tip from basem1 on the RRE board.

NAH looks good value from an earnings point of view, so I can see the attraction. However, cash flow is poor. In 2017 12.4m of operating profit turned into 2.8m of cash generated from operating activities. In 2018 the numbers were 10.0m and 4.5m respectively. Over two years, that's less than a third of operating profit turned into cash.

Trade and other receivables has increased from 2.5 months of revenue in 2016 to 5 months of revenue in 2017 to 7 months of revenue in 2018. This is a bad trend, and a high overall number, which puts me off investing - unless there's a compelling explanation. I've seen the comments in the 2018 results on increasing receivables, but they don't give me comfort.

What are other investors thoughts on the low cash conversion and increase in receivables?

[loglorry1] 24/4/2019 12:41

The real free float is now very small. Most of the stock is in pretty safe hands now I think. I know one PI with a very substantial holding in seven figures who expects to see 300p plus dividends as the new business model takes hold. I see no reason to doubt that at all.

[someuwin] 24/4/2019 12:19

Ticking up on small buys

[aleman] 23/4/2019 16:56

Long term trend reversal or not?

[caterham88] 23/4/2019 12:45

Following the Stephen English interview on PI World, researched the stock and indeed it does look promising. Bought an initial £10k.

[basem1] 23/4/2019 09:22

I would like to be in the 120's come ex dividend day and finish the week at this level after going ex Div. The dividend is a 4 figure sum for me as I am sure it is for a few other people.

[someuwin] 23/4/2019 09:14

All buys so far today.

[someuwin] 18/4/2019 16:58

...Yes - good point.

[bc4] 18/4/2019 16:55

Do you not mean Thursday. Wednesday close of business ex divi Thursday

[someuwin] 18/4/2019 14:38

A bit cheaper now.

Buy before next Friday to get the 4.8% final dividend.

[danieldruff2] 17/4/2019 18:26

The glory of break-even is fast approaching!

[keith95] 17/4/2019 16:48

I've taken good profits today ....

.. back to a comfortable level of hold.


GLA.

[mister md] 17/4/2019 15:47

well, in 2015 the share price was 4 times higher and the p&l not too dissimilar, so you never know ;)

[aleman] 17/4/2019 15:04

4 or 5 times higher over 5 years is a nice comment, if highly speculative.

[someuwin] 17/4/2019 15:00

Cheers for that link. I'll listen to the whole interview later.

He certainly seems to like NAHL "...One of my highest conviction stocks" and "...One of the best restructuring stories on AIM".

[basem1] 17/4/2019 14:54

Thanks for that...Sees 3 or 4 or 5 times upside from current levels. Wow

[yupawiese2010] 17/4/2019 14:31

Favorable Discussion in respect of NAHL from Investment Director Stephen English of Blankstone Singleton, scroll in to 24.36 min to hear his comments.

[someuwin] 16/4/2019 13:56

Sums it up well...

"...NAHL has a c.19% share of the £157m claims management market but its move into claims processing increases the addressable market to £3.9bn."

[someuwin] 16/4/2019 08:53

Ex-dividend day is next Thursday (25th April) to get the 5.3p divi. (currently 4.5%).

And that's just the final dividend. total for the year is 8.9p.

[riverman77] 15/4/2019 22:37

I'm confident this has now turned the corner and see meaningful upside. Still very cheap.

[someuwin] 15/4/2019 22:13

Just updated the list of significant shareholders in the header.

Very reassuring that so many big name institutions believe in the NAH recovery story.

[someuwin] 15/4/2019 11:15

finnCap last month...

NAHL (NAH): Corp

Profitable ABSs illustrate the potential

NAHL has reported FY 2018 results in line with our forecasts (revised after a slower Q4). The transition towards the new, digitally enabled platform is progressing well and the Alternative Business Structures (ABSs – effectively the mid-way between the old and new model) are profitable. This validates the concept and the new 100% owned platform will launch in April 2019. Investors are being paid to wait during this transition phase with an FY 2019E dividend yield of 8.7%, and we continue to forecast net debt to peak in 2019 and a return to EPS and DPS growth in 2020. As the return from the new model drives increasing free cash flow we see very significant share price upside, with downside risk protected by the value of the growing Critical Care business.