Nahl Share Discussion Threads

[massimoj] 24/7/2018 20:25

I really don't think we need to rely on external factors for this to be a successful investment from here. They're going through a slight down year during which they are investing in an ABS model which will allow them to continue to participate in a wide variety of claims going forward and also take advantage of a consolidation in the marketplace. Regulation helps companies like this, And it is available at 6x a bad year's earnings. There are very few (arguably no) cheaper companies with this level of margin of safety available in the UK today

[massimoj] 24/7/2018 20:25

I really don't think we need to rely on external factors for this to be a successful investment from here. They're going through a slight down year during which they are investing in an ABS model which will allow them to continue to participate in a wide variety of claims going forward and also take advantage of a consolidation in the marketplace. Regulation helps companies like this, And it is available at 6x a bad year's earnings. There are very few (arguably no) cheaper companies with this level of margin of safety available in the UK today

[keith95] 24/7/2018 19:42

"400k jobs a year are currently being created in the UK
Ask yourself how that is possible in a declining economy?"



Page 48 ...

"In the shock scenario, real average wages would be around 2.8% lower after two years than under a vote to remain. That is equivalent to a fall in wages of more than £780 per year for an individual working full time, based on 2015 average wages.19 The analysis shows that the peak impact on unemployment in the shock scenario would see the unemployment rate increase to around 1.6 percentage points above the rate in the event of a vote to remain – equating to an increase of around 500,000 unemployed."

Always nice to know if there is a bullsh*tter on board ....

World growth 4% ... UK growth down from top of EU 28 pre brexit to bottom of the EU pile now.

Topped up a few today - Hire and fire low wage low regulation free trade Brexit environment suggests plenty of upside for this company.

IMHO

:)

[rcturner2] 24/7/2018 15:34

Momentum is very poor here and regulatory uncertainty weighing down the share.

Plenty "not to like".

[keith95] 20/7/2018 07:17

massimoj

"follow patterns rather than thinking about them as reflections of the value of a business. On that basis, this is inexplicable."

Bless ......

hxxp://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/analysis-report?t=XLON:NAH&region=gbr&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE&cur=

values NAH at 150 down from 163 over the past month .. with weakness in £.

Price/Quant Fair Value currently sits at 0.77 with a 5 year average of 0.91 ...

... as I said ...7.6% projected yield covered 2X by earnings. Pretty unique two months ago .... less so now with many UK based stocks hit hard this past month.


;)

[rcturner2] 19/7/2018 13:54

agree lazygun

[lazygun] 19/7/2018 13:51

Well, sadly panning out as i’d Suggested it might, back in march. Now dropped below the low of jan ‘17. In fact it’s now at its all time trading low.

The one good thing is that it sounds like business remains reasonably robust.

With the reduced dividend, (I think in my March post I estimated around 10p total for the coming year, based on their comments about their revised dividend cover policy) I believe this stock will probably continue to slide or drift sideways until the results are out in September.

Still, even if the next dividend is around the 10p mark, at current share price, that’s still about 9% yield which would be an exceptional return.

If it drops below £1 between now and September, I think i’ll Definitely be buying, given today’s RNS confirming that business remains reasonably strong.

L.

[massimoj] 19/7/2018 12:42

Ok sure, it can be explained by thinking about stock prices as things that are abstract and follow patterns rather than thinking about them as reflections of the value of a business. On that basis, this is inexplicable.

[keith95] 19/7/2018 12:13

Not at all inexplicable .... the same pattern of events happened last year ... the low was 123 or thereabouts and rallied strongly last the interim dividend into the new year. 106p is my guess for the low which is 123 minus the dividend for the year and two pence or so for the efforts of the Market Makers. Two of the Market Makers are quite aggressive which for a light trading stock like Nah means you can often find their trolls trying to spook investors.Trades in line ... 7% yield covered twice over .... what is not to like....Just think of this as a game of poker ...;)

[massimoj] 19/7/2018 11:39

The reaction to yesterday is inexplicable. This business will make c.19p per share this year and its earnings will grow from there over the next 3 years. It earns excellent returns on capital and has a management team that are adept at dealing with exactly the sort of regulatory challenges they are faced with. Further, it now has until 2020 to get its ABS line of business up to steam before its existing model even begins to be affected by reforms. It's worth 200p a share as an absolute minimum and I honestly think it's worth much more than that.

[keith95] 19/7/2018 08:08

.... i ain't your m8 ..... nor are you my type either ?

[rcturner2] 19/7/2018 07:47

lol ok mate

[keith95] 18/7/2018 18:50

RCTurner228

"My entry here would be around £1."


This stock dipped to 123p just before the dividend and popped to 135.5 which was my last sell ....

The broad idea is to try and make money ..... not sit there pontificating ...

and then try to gloat from 4 months ago ....

What a plonker indeed.



:)

[rcturner2] 18/7/2018 13:35

RCTurner228 Mar '18 - 08:35 - 318 of 349 Edit
0 1 0
I am waiting, there is no rush to buy stocks like this.
wllmherk29 Mar '18 - 17:25 - 319 of 349
0 1 0
I bought back in today at 135p, previously sold at 193p, would be delighted if I could repeat the trick although my recent track record has been patchy to say the least.

wllm
keith9529 Mar '18 - 21:43 - 320 of 349
0 0 1
"I am waiting, there is no rush to buy stocks like this."

More than happy for you to buy my shares when I've finished with them.

:)
RCTurner23 Apr '18 - 09:29 - 321 of 349 Edit
0 0 0
My entry here would be around £1.

[clanger66] 18/7/2018 13:05

The price didn't move all morning and then was sold sharply at midday. Must be one seller and it wouldn't surprise me if it was the same guy who has been feeding stock out for a while now. Today's update was nothing special in my opinion but I thought may have cheered the market as there doesn't seem to be any hidden horrors emerging. On valuations this seems incredibly cheap.

[imranawan] 18/7/2018 12:23

An inline update this am but share price down again. Just don't get it!

[mymillie] 16/7/2018 14:30

Has this been tipped ? Not moved the price, is there a seller.

[mister md] 31/5/2018 13:37

Chunky divi received today

[bc4] 30/5/2018 09:46

Divi paid tomoz might be a few reinvesting here we will see

[martinthebrave] 23/5/2018 14:50

Bought more early on 125p. Update should calm things & enable a steady rise upwards hopefully.

[keith95] 23/5/2018 11:48

"even with a more cautious dividend policy"

I'd prefer NAH to grow its business organically rather than by share diluting placements ....

7.5% yield covered twice?

What is not to like.

[aleman] 23/5/2018 11:11

AGM says still trading in line. A reminder of forecasts:

2018 2019
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
Arden Partners 20/03/18 BUY 13.10 18.07 9.18 17.75 19.04 9.66
FinnCap 20/03/18 CORP 13.60 19.40 9.70 18.80 20.40 10.20

[grahamg8] 21/5/2018 17:29

Well that's my second top up since the results. Visibility on future earnings is poor. The PI division is evolving under the new claim restriction regime, the ABS ventures are in their infancy, and the residential business is in a difficult trading environment. But NAHL have a habit of generating profits somehow and even with a more cautious dividend policy the yield seem to me to be reasonably assured at 8%+ on the current share price. Any sign of growth and the PE ratio of below 6x will look pretty silly.

[keith95] 09/5/2018 23:21

I find Morningstar quite good for direction:

hxxp://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LNSXFEUj4UUJ:quotes.morningstar.com/stock/analysis-report%3Ft%3DXLON:NAH%26region%3Dgbr%26culture%3Den-US%26productcode%3DMLE%26cur%3D+&cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Fair value pitched at 157p now.